This is Paul Briggs's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Paul Briggs's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Paul Briggs
Recent Activity
Thank you. You've been an invaluable help in my own work.
Toggle Commented Nov 26, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Not quite off-topic… I have a couple of economic questions regarding a near-future climate fiction novel I'm writing. The scenario is that at some point in the near future, computer models of sea level rise improve to the point where it becomes possible to predict (to within a decade) when a given piece of coastal property will become unusable. Now, I can't imagine anyone in their right mind agreeing to a 30-year mortgage on a property that will be worthless in 40 years and at risk of destruction by storm surge long before then. At the same time, all of these houses and condos and businesses would still physically exist and be usable in the present. My questions are, about how much value would coastal properties lose, and what would be the larger economic effect of that much equity disappearing? For the second question, I'm not asking so much about the exact numbers as what the effect would look like to a casual observer.
1 reply
Thanks, everybody. My main worry was that I'd gotten something fundamentally wrong — that the average insolation of the North Pole in summer might not be enough to heat the ocean that much, or that interrupting the Gulf Stream wouldn't have that effect. I should probably have gone into a lot more detail on the effects of food and water shortages and weather disasters on societies (I sort of hinted at a major reshuffling in the Chinese government after the hurricane hit Shanghai and the Turpan Depression flooded) but if I really set out to do this story justice it would turn into a 500,000-word epic novel and I already have a ridiculous number of writing projects going on. (I only just realized that I'd completely forgotten about the effect of the northern monsoon and spring meltwater soaking through the Arctic soil and hitting the permafrost. Eek!) Thanks for the suggestions on the ARKstorm and using salt to force downwellings. I hadn't heard of these.
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
Paul Briggs is now following The Typepad Team
Jun 15, 2014