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Probably at least 10 years from achieving next gen reactors with those characteristics. I would bet on molten salt reactors from China or Terrestrial Energy. But an interesting "dark horse" is Moltex with a very novel design concept.
While I have not read the full report (yet), based on this synopsis it appears there are two key take-aways... 1. dramatic changes from the last report, 5 years ago, for renewables 2. such a report can be misleading unless basis for projected LCOE is clearly described and includes likely technological developments. For example, recent firm pricing for utility scale renewable energy was on the order of 4 to 5 cents per KWh (e.g. Austin, TX), lower than #s in this report. Even if we back out US subsidies, that still suggests a LCOE less than 7 cents per KWh, with reasonable discount rates. This is also consistent with recent project in Middle East with fixed pricing for solar at less than $0.06 / KWh. And, these projects do not include the benefits of improved technologies. This report may provide reasonable 2020 guidance for fossil & nuclear LCOE. It appears that may not be true for solar & wind. For solar & wind it may have been more reasonable to extrapolate the 2020 LCOE using the delta between the prior and current report data.
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Aug 31, 2015