Delurking at the yearly minimum again ;-). The discussion between Wayne and the rest starts to be unnecessarily nasty. I guess that Wayne is frustrated with using extent for comparisons of the state of ice, simple because the ice chcnged so much, that results from 20 years ago are not truly comparable to the current ones. 20 years ago we have had solid core, say 5 mln sq km of ice and then around that core say 3 mln square km of dispersed ice with concentration varying between 100 and 15 percent. Now we have, say 1 mln sq km of solid ice and 3 mln sq km of dispersed ice. The comparison of the extents shows 2-fold reduction, whereas comparison of solid ice shows 5-fold reduction. Again assuming that the average concentration of the dispersed ice is 50 percent then the total area in the current year is 2.5 mln sq km and it used to be 6.5 mln sq km 20 years ago. The reduction of total area is only 2.5-fold. For the same numbers the compactness of the ice changed from the 13/16 to 10/16 again anything from dramatic on the first sight. Neither of these parameters (area, extent, compactness) shows directly how dramatic the change of the state of ice really can be behind the numbers. Unfortunately with single cutoff used to define the state of ice it is difficult to derive good measure. We would have to take strong assumptions on the density distribution of the ice, that would be wrong most of the time due to the high variance due to weather conditions, day of the year etc. Probably we should have another cutoff, say at 85 percent concentration, that would measure nearly solid ice. Obviously, all my numbers are just examples, that only somewhat resemble true values, I gave them to illustrate the point. My two cents.

Hi all, I've been lurking for a couple of years - great place thank both to host and all commenters. I am physicist and computer scientist doing science in a field remote to climate, here only an amateur. I have scored the years according to the position on the temperature list in May-Aug period. Pts May Pts June Pts July Pts August Year Sum4 SumJJA SumJA SumJJ 7 107 34 107 37 107 37 107 2007 115 108 74 71 27 111 33 111 33 111 35 111 2011 128 101 68 66 28 112 32 112 26 112 32 112 2012 118 90 58 58 8 98 27 98 35 98 25 98 1998 95 87 60 62 32 105 36 105 21 105 29 105 2005 118 86 50 57 36 93 37 93 28 93 16 93 1993 117 81 44 65 34 95 17 95 34 95 30 95 1995 115 81 64 51 37 90 30 90 24 90 26 90 1990 117 80 50 54 17 85 35 85 32 85 10 85 1985 94 77 42 67 30 91 22 91 31 91 23 91 1991 106 76 54 53 11 87 21 87 29 87 22 87 1987 83 72 51 50 18 99 9 99 25 99 36 99 1999 88 70 61 34 12 115 25 115 36 115 9 115 2015 82 70 45 61 35 88 20 88 30 88 14 88 1988 99 64 44 50 16 109 13 109 27 109 24 109 2009 80 64 51 40 33 110 31 110 5 110 27 110 2010 96 63 32 36 20 94 28 94 22 94 11 94 1994 81 61 33 50 23 108 8 108 14 108 31 108 2008 76 53 45 22 4 84 24 84 23 84 6 84 1984 57 53 29 47 24 104 19 104 12 104 21 104 2004 76 52 33 31 22 81 29 81 3 81 15 81 1981 69 47 18 32 14 79 7 79 19 79 20 79 1979 60 46 39 26 6 100 18 100 10 100 18 100 2000 52 46 28 28 15 89 11 89 6 89 28 89 1989 60 45 34 17 26 97 26 97 17 97 1 97 1997 70 44 18 43 2 82 14 82 13 82 17 82 1982 46 44 30 27 19 102 4 102 4 102 34 102 2002 61 42 38 8 9 114 5 114 2 114 33 114 2014 49 40 35 7 5 101 12 101 16 101 12 101 2001 45 40 28 28 10 83 2 83 18 83 19 83 1983 49 39 37 20 25 103 15 103 9 103 13 103 2003 62 37 22 24 31 80 23 80 11 80 2 80 1980 67 36 13 34 29 106 10 106 15 106 8 106 2006 62 33 23 25 1 92 6 92 20 92 4 92 1992 31 30 24 26 21 86 16 86 8 86 5 86 1986 50 29 13 24 3 113 3 113 7 113 7 113 2013 20 17 14 10 13 96 1 96 1 96 3 96 1996 18 5 4 2 Interestingly 2007 wins easily when only three months are counted towards the final score (May is excluded) with 2011 second and 2012 third, whereas 2011 wins when all months are counted, with 2012 tied with 2005 in the second place followed by 1993 and 1990 in the fourth and 2007 tied with 1995 in sixth. In JJA ranking year 2015 is in the 12th spot, in 4 months ranking it is in the 15th spot. From this ranking I would hypothetise that the conditions in May are mostly irrelevant to the extent/area of ice in September, on the other hand cumulative heat in JJA is a very good predictor. Several conclusions follow. Firstly, 2013 and 2014 were among the coldest in JJA period (36th spot for 2013 and 28th spot for 2014), no wonder that some (very fragile) rebound happened. Secondly, 2015 was only slightly warmer than average still it managed to go nearly on par with 2007. Finally - if next year Arctic will will get the summer weather as warm as 2007, 2011 or 2012 the results may be really disastrous - the ice may go well below 2012 levels, maybe as low as 1 mln square km.