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We'll be studying this year's weather for quite a while, I think.
No doubt, JD. Here's to hoping there will be ice left to study!
Neven, quite understandable. And yet: I took a break from ice in September. See how that turned out.
Arctic sea ice minimum volume 1979-2016
Andy Lee Robinson has updated his PIOMAS sea ice volume minimum video:
JD,
I noticed someone said the October Plunge was due to albedo related heat on there: «Right now there is a whole bunch of albedo related heat overwhelming the freezing power of the Arctic winter.»
But that wasn't you, I guess. You said:
I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom.
This would be enough to feel the boot back in my days. Global warming is real? No way!
But would you chance a guess albedo related heat was the culprit even for the Great Plunge of 2007 & 2012?
Click for full size.
Arctic sea ice minimum volume 1979-2016
Andy Lee Robinson has updated his PIOMAS sea ice volume minimum video:
As I was about to say, I don't know about other people, but after 8 comments talking about a plot, I grow curious to see the actual plot itself. Any chance this could be posted or linked?
PIOMAS September 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Weather conditions in the past month - the (Great?) Arctic Cyclone followed by the Mega-Dipole to be ...
I don
PIOMAS September 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Weather conditions in the past month - the (Great?) Arctic Cyclone followed by the Mega-Dipole to be ...
Keep us posted when you have a graph 'proving' last winter put on 26500 km^3, will you? I've found gallows humour is really something I chose very early on in life, I guess in my teens when watching British satire, so not at all a sudden change for me after calculating what's ahead of us. Like your style!
PIOMAS September 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Weather conditions in the past month - the (Great?) Arctic Cyclone followed by the Mega-Dipole to be ...
This year we know there was less mass of ice melted
Rudmop, this is exactly why I asked. With the huge uncertainties of modelled volume, how do you or we *know* this year melted less ice? Models could equally well be confused by the extreme and record big dispersion of the ice, leading to much thinner ice in real life, but perhaps fooling the models into guessing there's a much bigger area than there actually is, and that this area is thick as, well, multi–year ice.
Bottom line is we just don't know. I've spear–headed an initiative to collect pocket–change from ice bloggers and commenters to buy buoys for the North American universities to deploy, so we can know what happens to the ice. Your support could mean make or break! :D
PIOMAS September 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Weather conditions in the past month - the (Great?) Arctic Cyclone followed by the Mega-Dipole to be ...
Rudmop, this is interesting! But what conclusions do you yourself draw from these calculations? As you said, both NSIDC and PIOMAS have huge error margins.
PIOMAS September 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Weather conditions in the past month - the (Great?) Arctic Cyclone followed by the Mega-Dipole to be ...
Nah, I think 2012 napped for too long! :)
More seriously, Wayne's statements are more or less backed up by Wipneus' area–divided–by–extent plots, where 2016 is or has been the lowest year ever this autumn.
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Hans: Thx, and I agree it's interesting. If many people feel they can already say that 2012 was lower than 2016, before September is over, IMO I have documented why it's more accurate to say 2016 was lower than 2012. It's all in that graph.
John: True! Your comment sent me thinking which year is really the turtle :D But if we assume that the rabbit was so self assured after the 2011 season (then record low) and was taking a nap until late July 2012, then 2016 more resembles the turtle, walking steadily but slowly, and thus seriously threatening the napping rabbit!
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
2012 at 3rd lowest is starting to resemble the rabbit's race in the Aesop fable against the turtle (2016):
Big: http://i.imgur.com/qxLpiqi.png
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Jim,
I finally got a chance to listen to the BBC4 program, which in fact was a very short segment indeed, packed in between a pollutician and the sports "news". I believe it started at 2 hours 21 m 30 s and ended just under 5 minutes later @ bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07vjx0d
Am I correct in finding no podcast or download for the Today program?
In any case, getting only 5 minutes after sailing for months in the Arctic waters, must be pretty frustrating, just there, and of course in particular when the interviewer from the Beeb *wants* there to be a lot of ice.
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Jim, my PIOMAS estimate app goes lower, but only slightly lower and still higher than #2, 2011.
PS: Is PIOMAS based on Jap/German concentration maps or NSIDC?
PIOMAS September 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Weather conditions in the past month - the (Great?) Arctic Cyclone followed by the Mega-Dipole to be ...
Amazing! Wayne, the question is whether sea ice extent could be a *literal* cover–up as well — not by intention, of course, but literally covering up all the expanding internal leads. *Almost* as per design. Just a natural consequence of the extent definition (15% rule) collapsing along with Arctic ice, but for us close watchers of sea ice collapse it does have that effect.
I was kind of losing faith in any delayed minima this year, you know, but your breathtaking blogging convinced me we're still in the Anything Can Happen phase. Ta vare!
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Annual Average Extent yesterday was up ever so little, but significantly for the first time since March 29th of this year, signifying that *daily* extent for September 23rd was actually higher than 2015 for the same date.
The other side of the coin is of course that March 30th to September 22nd, 2016 extent was *always* lower than last year's extent. And as seen from the whole plot: 2012 & 16 is the only show in town. No other year is below 10 million. It will also most likely be a close race between the two for lowest annual extent, with a new record being booked, or not, no sooner than January 1st.
Big: http://i.imgur.com/OK0Y41A.jpg
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Jim, I think everyone with a Nordic descent can tell with only half an eye that that ice is falling off a glacier, deffo not sea ice. Having to use that "test-run" photo as evidence we are not facing collapse, pretty much tells you we're in for a total Arctic sea ice collapse in the coming months.
BTW, great blog!
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
John, I'm aware my area graph shows area, but thanks anyway :D
Volume is another fortnight in the coming, but true, my PIOMAS estimate app indicates an increase, guessing based on 15%–rule JAXA extent. What *actual* volume is doing these days is of course hard to tell, with fewer buoys and almost no field research, as Wayne's pointed out many times already.
Anyhow, up here in the mountains I've now found a shoestring from some old ski–boots, keeping my Ice Machine charger charging. Thus I can bring you:
Uni–Hamburg CAB animation Sep 01–21
Big: http://i.imgur.com/kuwIdor.gif
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
I was talking about how long it will take for the freeze to spread out of the CAB and into the other regions and, eventually, out towards the pacific.
NeilT, but the CAB did NOT refreeze over the past week (see my graph above). Before CAB freeze can spread to other areas, the CAB itself needs to freeze, no?
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Interesting! Now CAB area is actually *down* for the week:
Big: http://i.imgur.com/RjXrIiQ.png
Ever so slightly, but still down 3 thousand km².
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
My latest Annual Average Volume analysis:
See the full–size graph & read the whole blog post here: http://wunderground.com/blog/viddaloo/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-21-august18-september-annual-average-volum
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Dodger,
speaking of tired old machines, I found an old red rubber band up here in the mountains yesterday that would just barely keep my charger charging the old laptop, and I was happy for a while. Until that rubber band broke, of course. Now I need to get a new rubber band up from the fjord, otherwise there will be no new graphs.
Starting to sound like them nuclear plants in the US, that I've heard still produce electricity, thanks to rubber bands and chewing gum. I'd feel so safe! :)
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Not the ice, I don't think it can be saved. But maybe we can bring it back. That's why it's important that we're watching and learning about it.
Neven, I'm not sure I grasp the difference between save and bring back. If u can bring back sea ice, surely that amounts to saving it?
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
«In the end however, it won't matter at all. It is all happening too fast. Where it does matter is in the discussion, rhetoric, and politics and hence in actions. But, the transition is happening so very quickly in geologic time that it is far outpacing any meaningful human response no matter whether we get the metrics right or not.»
Exactly. It only matters for scientific activism, which the IPCC was expressly set up to prevent. Maybe a more challenging and fun exercise than guessing the annual minimum for the various imperfect metrics could be to estimate the number of years the metrics alone add for the ice? Example: If JAXA says 2 million km2 but extent is actually virtually ice–free, then next year JAXA says virtually ice–free, that's 1 year added due to the imperfection of the metric. Same for CT area (if it comes online again) and PIOMAS volume.
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
2012 is now 4th lowest for Arctic sea ice extent. My guess is it will end up 2nd by Dec 31.
Everything looks as if 2016 will be the first year with year–to–date average below 10 million km2.
Big: http://i.imgur.com/NYjRz4b.png
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Rob: Yup, Norwegian and finally back in Norway from my island holiday!
It's good to see Wipneus back as well, and here's my latest graph based on his processing of the data.
Big: http://i.imgur.com/2ppPfqs.png
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Jim: http://www.radio4all.net/files/[email protected]/2149-1-20160916180002.mp3
ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
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