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viddaloo
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We'll be studying this year's weather for quite a while, I think. No doubt, JD. Here's to hoping there will be ice left to study! Neven, quite understandable. And yet: I took a break from ice in September. See how that turned out.
JD, I noticed someone said the October Plunge was due to albedo related heat on there: «Right now there is a whole bunch of albedo related heat overwhelming the freezing power of the Arctic winter.» But that wasn't you, I guess. You said: I think we're in free fall, bouncing off the walls on the way to the bottom. This would be enough to feel the boot back in my days. Global warming is real? No way! But would you chance a guess albedo related heat was the culprit even for the Great Plunge of 2007 & 2012? Click for full size.
As I was about to say, I don't know about other people, but after 8 comments talking about a plot, I grow curious to see the actual plot itself. Any chance this could be posted or linked?
Toggle Commented Oct 1, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
I don
Toggle Commented Oct 1, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Keep us posted when you have a graph 'proving' last winter put on 26500 km^3, will you? I've found gallows humour is really something I chose very early on in life, I guess in my teens when watching British satire, so not at all a sudden change for me after calculating what's ahead of us. Like your style!
Toggle Commented Sep 30, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
This year we know there was less mass of ice melted Rudmop, this is exactly why I asked. With the huge uncertainties of modelled volume, how do you or we *know* this year melted less ice? Models could equally well be confused by the extreme and record big dispersion of the ice, leading to much thinner ice in real life, but perhaps fooling the models into guessing there's a much bigger area than there actually is, and that this area is thick as, well, multi–year ice. Bottom line is we just don't know. I've spear–headed an initiative to collect pocket–change from ice bloggers and commenters to buy buoys for the North American universities to deploy, so we can know what happens to the ice. Your support could mean make or break! :D
Toggle Commented Sep 30, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Rudmop, this is interesting! But what conclusions do you yourself draw from these calculations? As you said, both NSIDC and PIOMAS have huge error margins.
Toggle Commented Sep 30, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Nah, I think 2012 napped for too long! :) More seriously, Wayne's statements are more or less backed up by Wipneus' area–divided–by–extent plots, where 2016 is or has been the lowest year ever this autumn.
Toggle Commented Sep 30, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans: Thx, and I agree it's interesting. If many people feel they can already say that 2012 was lower than 2016, before September is over, IMO I have documented why it's more accurate to say 2016 was lower than 2012. It's all in that graph. John: True! Your comment sent me thinking which year is really the turtle :D But if we assume that the rabbit was so self assured after the 2011 season (then record low) and was taking a nap until late July 2012, then 2016 more resembles the turtle, walking steadily but slowly, and thus seriously threatening the napping rabbit!
Toggle Commented Sep 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
2012 at 3rd lowest is starting to resemble the rabbit's race in the Aesop fable against the turtle (2016): Big: http://i.imgur.com/qxLpiqi.png
Toggle Commented Sep 29, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, I finally got a chance to listen to the BBC4 program, which in fact was a very short segment indeed, packed in between a pollutician and the sports "news". I believe it started at 2 hours 21 m 30 s and ended just under 5 minutes later @ bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07vjx0d Am I correct in finding no podcast or download for the Today program? In any case, getting only 5 minutes after sailing for months in the Arctic waters, must be pretty frustrating, just there, and of course in particular when the interviewer from the Beeb *wants* there to be a lot of ice.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, my PIOMAS estimate app goes lower, but only slightly lower and still higher than #2, 2011. PS: Is PIOMAS based on Jap/German concentration maps or NSIDC?
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2016 on PIOMAS September 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Amazing! Wayne, the question is whether sea ice extent could be a *literal* cover–up as well — not by intention, of course, but literally covering up all the expanding internal leads. *Almost* as per design. Just a natural consequence of the extent definition (15% rule) collapsing along with Arctic ice, but for us close watchers of sea ice collapse it does have that effect. I was kind of losing faith in any delayed minima this year, you know, but your breathtaking blogging convinced me we're still in the Anything Can Happen phase. Ta vare!
Toggle Commented Sep 25, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Annual Average Extent yesterday was up ever so little, but significantly for the first time since March 29th of this year, signifying that *daily* extent for September 23rd was actually higher than 2015 for the same date. The other side of the coin is of course that March 30th to September 22nd, 2016 extent was *always* lower than last year's extent. And as seen from the whole plot: 2012 & 16 is the only show in town. No other year is below 10 million. It will also most likely be a close race between the two for lowest annual extent, with a new record being booked, or not, no sooner than January 1st. Big: http://i.imgur.com/OK0Y41A.jpg
Toggle Commented Sep 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, I think everyone with a Nordic descent can tell with only half an eye that that ice is falling off a glacier, deffo not sea ice. Having to use that "test-run" photo as evidence we are not facing collapse, pretty much tells you we're in for a total Arctic sea ice collapse in the coming months. BTW, great blog!
Toggle Commented Sep 23, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
John, I'm aware my area graph shows area, but thanks anyway :D Volume is another fortnight in the coming, but true, my PIOMAS estimate app indicates an increase, guessing based on 15%–rule JAXA extent. What *actual* volume is doing these days is of course hard to tell, with fewer buoys and almost no field research, as Wayne's pointed out many times already. Anyhow, up here in the mountains I've now found a shoestring from some old ski–boots, keeping my Ice Machine charger charging. Thus I can bring you: Uni–Hamburg CAB animation Sep 01–21 Big: http://i.imgur.com/kuwIdor.gif
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
I was talking about how long it will take for the freeze to spread out of the CAB and into the other regions and, eventually, out towards the pacific. NeilT, but the CAB did NOT refreeze over the past week (see my graph above). Before CAB freeze can spread to other areas, the CAB itself needs to freeze, no?
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Interesting! Now CAB area is actually *down* for the week: Big: http://i.imgur.com/RjXrIiQ.png Ever so slightly, but still down 3 thousand km².
Toggle Commented Sep 22, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
My latest Annual Average Volume analysis: See the full–size graph & read the whole blog post here: http://wunderground.com/blog/viddaloo/arctic-sea-ice-collapse-21-august18-september-annual-average-volum
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Dodger, speaking of tired old machines, I found an old red rubber band up here in the mountains yesterday that would just barely keep my charger charging the old laptop, and I was happy for a while. Until that rubber band broke, of course. Now I need to get a new rubber band up from the fjord, otherwise there will be no new graphs. Starting to sound like them nuclear plants in the US, that I've heard still produce electricity, thanks to rubber bands and chewing gum. I'd feel so safe! :)
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Not the ice, I don't think it can be saved. But maybe we can bring it back. That's why it's important that we're watching and learning about it. Neven, I'm not sure I grasp the difference between save and bring back. If u can bring back sea ice, surely that amounts to saving it?
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
«In the end however, it won't matter at all. It is all happening too fast. Where it does matter is in the discussion, rhetoric, and politics and hence in actions. But, the transition is happening so very quickly in geologic time that it is far outpacing any meaningful human response no matter whether we get the metrics right or not.» Exactly. It only matters for scientific activism, which the IPCC was expressly set up to prevent. Maybe a more challenging and fun exercise than guessing the annual minimum for the various imperfect metrics could be to estimate the number of years the metrics alone add for the ice? Example: If JAXA says 2 million km2 but extent is actually virtually ice–free, then next year JAXA says virtually ice–free, that's 1 year added due to the imperfection of the metric. Same for CT area (if it comes online again) and PIOMAS volume.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
2012 is now 4th lowest for Arctic sea ice extent. My guess is it will end up 2nd by Dec 31. Everything looks as if 2016 will be the first year with year–to–date average below 10 million km2. Big: http://i.imgur.com/NYjRz4b.png
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob: Yup, Norwegian and finally back in Norway from my island holiday! It's good to see Wipneus back as well, and here's my latest graph based on his processing of the data. Big: http://i.imgur.com/2ppPfqs.png
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim: http://www.radio4all.net/files/tony@cultureshop.org.uk/2149-1-20160916180002.mp3
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 7: minimum time at Arctic Sea Ice