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Todd McKissick
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Congratulations Kartik on reaching the enlightenment plateau. It is rare that people can come to these conclusions by themselves and not succumb to the myriad propaganda offering fail-able solutions. I think your end solution is a pretty good one that has numerous points of merit. I especially like the new (to me) assessment of real vs. nominal GDP. It fits very well. My only serious issue is that it still relies on government (elite controlled) action by both self serving politicians and far more self serving central bankers. After coming to that realization and seeing the massive delay overcoming that would incur, I hunted down an even better solution. As you might imagine, it's far too complex in its entirety to go into here but some high points follow to begin the discussion. And just for disclosure, I'm a fully ATOM based person, creating the first in a long string of technologies that accelerate the trendline not only back to the norm but onto a high trajectory. The solution I propose centers around a digital currency (I'll use Bitcoin for simple reference but it could be another existing or new one.) If the Bitcoin community agreed to implement an additional transaction fee on every transaction of 1%, regardless of who/what the transfer was for, and put that into a single account. Then daily, that account was distributed equally to every member whom signed up for the free dividend, it would quickly become self propagating into the benefits you cite in your program. Obviously, some rules need to be created to manage such a system but they could all be done autonomously, ensuring that admin costs remain marginally zero. By replacing one's transactions in fiat with digital, one loses all the taxes paid via the fiat (mostly commerce and business and eventually credit creation) and replaces them with a simple method (Bitcoin transactions are/will be insanely easy) that is taxed a mere 1%. Combine this with the spending power of those receiving the dividend and you get an attraction of not only the intra Bitcoin transactions but also the investment of fiat money to fund new Bitcoin ventures. The 'monetary expansion' phase would be derived from the increased wealth created in Bitcoin as people migrate more of their commerce to it and it's value increases. It would be instantly global in scope, moving the world's poorest up first and then attacking poverty on each successive level. It carries many of the same benefits of increasing commerce and economic activity and even advancing the ATOM principles of that community as it grew. However, as it attracted business activity, it would do so at the expense of the fiat currencies those businesses used to work in. This has the effect of increasing the Bitcoin money supply (the value, not the nominal units) even more than your 20% requirement. It would increase more by the amount it robbed from the fiat currency as well. This automatic process would not rely on policy but would be market driven and autonomous. Even autonomous transactions (e.g. micro-payments between robots, per click charges) and personal/black market transactions would be captured as long as they were done in the instant digital world. The list of benefits is nearly endless but at your caliber, I suspect you need no list. Most relevant to this discussion is that services would either not be needed anymore or would in large part, be offered via the free market. While this doesn't automatically reduce government spending, it certainly removes most of the justification (and budget) for many aid programs. Ideally, this reduction would be in sync with the reduced tax revenue so governments could maintain balanced budgets while they fell dramatically. And yes, this would even include war budgets. On the logistical side, the implementation can be done in such a way as to create even more societal benefits rather than act as a cost. In my proposal, I outline a system of unique account verification where DNA scanners could be used and where the incentive is for people to invest in many of them (lowering their cost from $1000 to $50 each) while earning an income by signing up new dividend account holders. This would create a global, one-way anonymous database of DNA information that was immensely useful for the medical research community while allowing them to post meta-tags of relevant info anonymously back to the human whom it belongs to. This can even migrated at some pre-determined future time to genome mapping for even greater benefit. In the long term, I see the future of economics undergoing a paradigm shift and eliminating all the non-productive pieces. This proposal seeks to accelerate those changes to bring about the end state much sooner. For example, the entire purpose of the public stock market is allow some people to earn a living from the productive profits of a business simple because the market was not efficient enough for said business to capitalize their growth soon enough. Making this money from trading robs that from the long term wages of both the labor and owner profits so eliminating it has the net effect of increasing the ATOM. Tech deflation could ramp up by far more than your 16-24% estimate if it weren't for this theft. As such, the end state (in a perfect world) would have a different mechanism to fund company growth at low or no cost and would allow the deflation to accelerate faster. By transitioning a company's investor transactions to digital, numerous algorithm methods and efficiencies, coupled with instant competition, could reduce said costs. The good part here is that practices like hedging, options and high frequency trading would not be practical if each separate transaction realized a 1% cost. Therefore, the businesses would migrate to the digital side and leave the corruption behind them. Win-win, for the company and society. Not so much for the Wall St. clan. The other aspect of the end state is that tech advancement has migrated us to what Jeremy Rifkin calls the zero marginal cost. I believe this should have been a key piece in economics since it was created but we finally have the ability to incorporate it now. There are now what I call "magic boxes" in every industry that will disrupt the wasteful aspects into purely productive aspects. For me, a magic box for home energy is like a perfect solar system. It would replace a long time rent (the monthly power bill) with a short term purchase, while satisfying all the needs relevant to said good or service. My threshold is an 8 year pay off maximum and lasting a lifetime with minimal maintenance. Also, to qualify as a magic box, it should be produced locally, use fully recyclable resources and be promoted via local awareness, not push-advertising. Very few fully completed magic boxes are on the market but labs and garages do already have the rest in the works. The only one I see as needing a boost for that time frame is fighting disease, hence the DNA database. Feel free to contact me to debate any specific ones but for brevity, I can simply say that within 10 years and with a little luck, everything you can need or want can either be an owned or a shared magic box. As you can imagine, paying off one's lifetime worth of living expenses in a max of 8 years (an average of 6), reduces the real cost of living by 85% or more. Adding back in the costs of emergencies, vacations and 'oh crap savings', brings it to around 80%. This couples nicely with the reduced jobs that will be available, the increase in unemployment and happily, with the increase in personal spending power of the future. The net effect is that working for a paycheck to make a living can migrate to doing a hobby/passion/mission for nothing more than the internal and/or external social sense of accomplishment. In a word, money will be relegated to insignificance it will no longer be worth the hassle of managing it. This will accelerate the ATOM transition far too fast for ANY policies to keep up. That's the thing about exponential technologies that all feed into each other. They don't go from 2% to 8% in 5 years and then to 20% in 5 more. Their third number is pushing the 90% adoption curve barrier. To be clear however, I see the ATOM progress and the growth of magic box disruptions as unstoppable so our efforts really only amount to easing pain during the transition. In short, we simply don't have the time to wait. The only way I see things remaining even close to balanced is to jump straight to a private, global, instant, autonomous and market driven solution. Have a look at my paper and let me know what you think. You can find it on the usbig (.net) site under discussion papers http://usbig.net/papers.php . I agree that this topic needs a champion but I also believe that only one proposal should be promoted so we should engage debate to find which one to promote first and then join forces down that path. Being more focused on bringing some magic boxes to the people, I'm looking for that champion.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on 14. The Campaign to Make This a Reality at The ATOM
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Aug 11, 2016