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Hemlock
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Lurking a little bit, but still enjoying the discussion on this site. FYI - Ray Kurzweil has a short article supporting UBI on his Accerating Intelligence blog @ KrzweilAI.net -Hemlock
Toggle Commented Jun 8, 2017 on Recent TV Appearances for The ATOM at The Futurist
KG - Listening to the news recently..... A Russian central bank official slams western governments for QE. OPEC is working to shore up/boost its oil price. Two-thirds of leading economists predict a 4th quarter US rate hike. All the while a BBC news anchor notes that there is little sign of inflation in advanced western economies. However this AM on News Hour Extra on BBC radio there was a discussion about the stagnant state of the world economy. One of the commentators posited a "QE for the people." This is obviously UBI or DUES by another name. So the idea is out there and growing, but I don't believe it will be implemented widely before the recession that you predict. To most economists and lay people this is seen as "helicopter money" which is inflationary and irresponsible fiscal policy. And 'x' amount of years ago it would have been - before the rise tech as you describe it. People think tech is gadgets - light sabers and jet packs and magical hover boards - and it is, but it is the maturing of AI that I think has become an unappreciated factor in this economy. That is why most can't see it coming. I know a college economics professor and intend to get his take on the ideas we are talking about here. Keep up the good work. Hemlock
KG - "Apres moi le deluge." King Louis XV of France, 18th Century also... President Barack Obama of the USA, January 20, 2017 ------------------------------------------------------ I've come to this blog and someone who is interested in technology and the transforming power it is bringing to both individuals as well as society at large. I've read and heartily enjoyed your ATOM e-book. It belongs on the shelf next to Kurzweil, Nick Bostrom, et al. In putting tech in an historical context it makes me think of NONZERO, a book by Robert Wright which I strongly recommend and would be curious as to your thoughts/opinions on his ideas. On page 152 Wright gives us a quote by historian Joseph Strayer... "...an interesting problem in the history of civilization. If there is steady progress anywhere, it is the field of technology, and yet this kind of progress seems to have little connection with the stability of society..." With that quote in mind, else where in the book he talks of a "Pareto optimum" moment. A moment where it is no longer possible to make someone better off in society without making someone else worse off. This necessitates a change in the social compact. Needless to say this is not without pain and confusion for that society. I believe your predicted 2017 recession will be such an event. What at first blush will seem to be your typical capitalist system cyclical recession will instead be modern societies' reckoning with the growing (exponential!) power of tech in every aspect of modern life. Simply put this renegotiation of the social contract will be traumatic and disorienting and fiscally painful. (Many people I work with live paycheck to paycheck, have significant debt and have most of their net worth invested in their homes... the hit on them will be grim.) This is all to say I agree with your thesis and would be interested in any more thoughts you might share on 2017. Your longer range predictions are rosy with the DUES both helping those who need it most as well as creating a new economic model. However getting from A to Z will necessitate some grim times. 2025 will be fun, but 2017 is around the corner.... How long might the downturn last (I know, it depends on a lot of factors), how might this downturn affect other nations, how suddenly might the crash happen, etc.? Finally, have you reached out to anyone with a soapbox to promote your ideas? Such as Kurzweil,Krugman or even the Freakonomics team? When you read enough about tech, accelerating change and so forth your theories become obvious, most policy makers and economists however, cannot see the forest for the trees. I look forward to continuing this conversation. Hemlock
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Oct 6, 2016