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Ian Cummins
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Don't beat yourself up about it. Your analysis is better than anyone on the sell side The market already raised rates, both on LIBOR due to change in money market rules and on the 10 year after Trump was elected. The FED are now behind and have to follow. As they have all said many times, being behind is better than being ahead as you can easily catch up but they have very little in the toolbox if things go the other way. The S&P went sideways for all of 2015 and 2016 despite low rates so no sign of further inflation of potential asset bubbles. Now we have Trumpenomics and people start to believe that the government will spend its way to growth (and inflation) as Larry Summers has been calling for over the last 5 years. Inflation is partially driven by market participant’s expectations. Trump provided the narrative that allowed people to credibly have the expectation. Now the market is delivering and so will the FED.
Toggle Commented Dec 15, 2016 on Fed Turns Hawkish at Tim Duy's Fed Watch
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Dec 15, 2016