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Bad initial estimates in scare models by globalist Ferguson and Gates-funded Murray led to alarming predictions. Fauci/Birx brought these predictions to President Trump which led to both federal and state actions that have shut down the country, severely damaged our economy and brought fear to a large proportion of the population. At the end of March, when President Trump shutdown the country for an additional 30 days until the end of April, he had no choice but to do what he did. Since that time much has become known about the COVID-19 environment, both medically and politically. From the medical perspective COVID-19 is a vicious infection when it gets deep into the lungs of the elderly population with co-morbidities. In most cases it can be successfully treated, but in this group the death rate is high. However, in the rest of the population COVID-19 is a mild infection. The data coming out now by respected institutions and researchers on antibody testing are showing that millions of people have had the disease with either no or mild symptoms. These results yield much reduced estimates of mortality rates and hospitalization rates. NY Governor Cuomo, reporting antibody data from NY, recognized the importance of this data. Fauci/Birx have not. President Trump should request the CDC to incorporate the antibody data into updated age-group specific mortality rates and to prepare a presentation by May 1. He should also request a breakdown of the deaths by age group, concurrent illness, and known vs suspected COVID deaths, again by May 1. There should be a graph showing the steep decline in hospitalized cases. This will be an accurate and positive presentation. If Fauci or Birx do not want to make the presentation, then someone who believes in the presentation should. Fauci/Birx should be at the presentation and need not be muted. Throughout this entire process, Fauci/Birx gloom and doom perspective has not been challenged. It is time to challenge them if they resist the data. From the political perspective it is clear that what began as a public health overreaction has become more a resist-Trump, maintain-the-lockdown, political reaction. This is perpetrated by the MSM through their vicious and untruthful coverage of the President; by Fauci/Birx resisting positive news on effective treatments, such as hydroxychloroquine and by not presenting the disease in perspective; and by the Democrats, already beginning hearings for impeachment redux. This is all consistent with a deep-state, globalist plan to take out President Trump. These actions are damaging to not only President Trump but to the American people. The damage to our society is enormous. President Trump has the opportunity on May 1, when the Federal restrictions are up, to end this nonsensical and pernicious over-reaction. The presentation of the reassuring emerging data in a positive manner will reduce the fear and give the basis for not extending the Federal restrictions. Preferably it should be presented by Fauci/Birx since they are largely responsible for the fear. However, if they decline there are many other experts available. President Trump should follow the presentation by implementing voluntary guidelines that recognize the elderly population at risk so they have the knowledge to follow social-distancing. The CDC has existing monitoring procedures to spot potential hot spots. He should encourage governors to open the states with social distancing for the elderly at risk. I think there will be many scare stories by the MSM this week to make sure President Trump does not take these or similar actions. However, the data are now on his side. I hope for our country and his presidency he takes this path.
Toggle Commented Apr 25, 2020 on Hit The Beach at JustOneMinute
Jane, Yes I think that is possible. The other possibility is that the President was truly moved by the false predictions (His demeanor at times tended to support this interpretation). However, from the beginning the predictions were so outlandish and based on unreliable data and assumptions that I do think he suspected something was up.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2020 on A Happy Easter To All at JustOneMinute
Old Lurker, thanks for your comment. If he knew initially, then President Trump was smart to realize that to resist at that point he loses and the globalist win. They but him in a bind and he smartly accepted that.His actions since have shown the American people great concern for the populace and great leadership and management skills. He is still in a bind but I think the way he has conducted himself has weakened the bind. At some point he has to break out of the bind and the media will still play their hand, but I think there will be less damage to him. I think it is like riding a rip-tide - you go with it until you can break loose.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2020 on A Happy Easter To All at JustOneMinute
The U.S. is in a state that would have been unimaginable until recently. President Trump is in a very tight bind. The fear of the American public of COVID-19 is incredible. The whole situation is so outlandish that it requires a context to grasp it. This is my context. Even with this length there is so much more to say. The Wuhan virus could have emerged in any number of ways in China. However, once the virus emerged, it was recognized by globalists and those who oppose President Trump as an opportunity to damage the President. The first coordinated step was the WHO Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, giving the knowingly false high death rate for the coronavirus. This then began the unrelenting fear campaign by the U.S. media and the Democrats to scare the American public. Although it was unexpected to the bad guys, President Trump on March 16 put in the 15-day social distancing policy. This was a direct result of the Imperial College of London’s ridiculously inflated estimates of number of deaths which was brought to President Trump by Drs. Fauci and Birx. However, they did not expect, nor did they want, the President to follow their recommendation. It seems very likely that this was coordinated by high-level deep state and globalist players. Neil Ferguson’s intention was to put out a scare model with knowingly bogus parameter estimates used in the model. Fauci/Birx were either useful idiots following their natural alarmist tendencies or in on the scheme. The media did not have to be directly in on the scheme because they independently wanted to damage President Trump. They all thought that President Trump would not take Fauci/Birx recommendations. With the bogus predictions to attack him and the fear stoked by the media, the President would be blamed by the media for the inevitable deaths. But President Trump surprised the hell out of them by taking the recommendations seriously or at least recognizing that he had no choice but to act as he did. It is important to keep in mind that the economic damage to the U.S. was not their goal because that path would not damage President Trump sufficiently; only being blamed for deaths would. By the end of March, Ferguson had to backtrack from his predictions. President Trump was talking optimistically about opening the economy, at least in part, on Easter Sunday. The Murray model with predictions of approximately 80,000 deaths and predictions of overwhelming the hospital care system is brought to the forefront by Fauci/Birx. President Trump is now given estimates of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. even with continued mitigation efforts. This was a set-up again. Their expectation again was that the President would open the country on Easter due to his previous statement of optimism and the economic damage. If so, the media could promote the narrative that excess deaths are due to the President’s valuation of economics over life. But President Trump surprised them again and continued with the shut-down for an additional 30 days until the end of April. It is clear that the Murray model was wrong from the beginning and the predictions, particularly hospital bed use, ICU use and ventilator use were not in the ballpark of subsequent reality. This institution is funded by ultimate globalist Bill Gates. This diabolical plot does not implicate anyone in letting people die due to COVID-19. People were going die of COVID-19 regardless. It was only about getting President Trump blamed for the deaths by not heeding the fake models and Fauci/Birx recommendations. The mortality target population of COVID-19 is elderly people with significant co-morbid conditions, especially obesity-related. Younger, healthy people pretty much tolerate the infection with mild or no symptoms. Therefore, most of the population is not at high risk of death. Fauci/Birx know this. Why has this not been emphasized by Fauci/Birx. Why hasn't the clear demographics of those who died been publicized widely and stressed by the media. Because it would give President Trump some cover for opening the economy without taking blame for the subsequent deaths. Also, hydroxychloroquine works. Fauci/Birx know this. The media know this. Why have they and the media constantly spoken against this life-saving treatment. Again, because if they admit its effectiveness it will give President Trump additional cover to open the economy without being blamed for the subsequent deaths. As the end of April approaches, there will be more false reasons why President Trump should not relax restrictions and more ginning up fear of COVID-19 by globalists, deep-state players and the media. However, they do not want the President to keep the restrictions on. They want him to open it up and to blame subsequent deaths on his decision. Either President Trump, at first, was truly moved by the false predictions or he recognized the trap right from the start. If the latter, then he played this beautifully. President Trump certainly recognizes this globalist/deep-state/media plot now. It will be interesting what action he takes. Although it is becoming less of a weapon, the media will surely blame subsequent deaths on his decision whenever the President lessens the restrictions.
Toggle Commented Apr 13, 2020 on A Happy Easter To All at JustOneMinute
The models were wrong from the beginning, and Murray's from introduction to the public, a week ago Sunday. Now the mortality count is being inflated. These model predictions and the promotion of these predictions by Fauci, Birx and the media injected an abhorrent level of fear into US society in order to get compliance. Acceptance of these predictions by President Trump contributed to the U.S. reaction, although once we went down the wrong track there was almost nothing to be done to quell the overreaction until better data came in. The negative impact on the U.S. and to individual lives is enormous and calculable. The lives saved by shutting down the U.S. compared to a common-sense social distancing policy and self-quarantine of the at-risk will never be known.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2020 on The Comeback Kids at JustOneMinute
What is known 1. The age distribution of COVID-19 identified cases and deaths is highly dominated by older ages, 65-70 years and older. 2. The age population of the U.S. is highly dominated by younger ages. 3. Points 1 and 2 occur not because the infectious rate of COVID-19 is vastly higher in older people compared to younger people, but because COVID-19 is mild in younger ages where the infection does not reach the lower respiratory tract. The expression of the infection of COVID-19 in younger people is either asymptomatic or mild symptoms. 4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, a large number of young people have already been infected and are not counted as cases. This is important because it reduces the remaining at-risk population. 5. Based on points 1,2,3,4 the true overall death rate (number dead divided by the number infected) is not yet known but is very much lower than being reported. Even more important, the age specific death rates, close to 0 in many dominant age groups and high in the sparser older age groups have to be used for an accurate projection of rates of COVID-19. How did the U.S. get to where we are? 1.The head of WHO put out an incorrect high estimate of the COVID-19 death rate. 2.The U. S. media, for obvious political reasons, hyped this number to convert a public health concern into a crisis. 3.Imperial College of London put out a “scare” model projecting around 2 million U.S. deaths. This model certainly scared President Trump and Fauci and Birx. 4.President Trump was thinking about relaxing restrictions on Easter but was presented with the Murray model projecting about 90,000 deaths even with continued mitigation. Hence the restrictions are now operative until the end of April. How do we get out of it? 1.There is no way out except with more data coming in. The time for a rational response is long gone. President Trump is boxed into a corner. If he relaxes restrictions before the end of the month every ensuing death will be blamed on him. If he continues to maintain the restrictions the economic disaster created by the response will grow. 2.The path the US went down in response to this public health had a basis in incorrect data and models which created panic and fear. What a shame.
Toggle Commented Apr 3, 2020 on Mask Up! at JustOneMinute
Ok, now I don't think you are paying attention. I did assert I am right, but I did not assert "these other guys are clowns" If you go back and read my post, I said "The model is reasonable" about Murray's model.
The Infamous Ignatz: 1.I did not say that Murray’s model did not include mitigation strategy. I said it would result in an overestimate of deaths which it will. And increase mitigation will be given as the reason for lower mortality, as sure as I write this. 2.Murray does not have unmitigated estimate of deaths. 3.Ferguson’s difference in his initial ludicrous estimate of deaths with the revised one has nothing to do with mitigation or not. By his own words Ferguson admits that his initial model was flawed because his rate of non-symptomatic exposure was too low among other flaws. Therefore, your multiplication to get 1.5 million is irrelevant. 4.The fact that Murray’s expected death toll rises everyday is not relevant to my point that in the end the number of deaths will be lower than 84,000 5. Therefore, to imply that some 15 days of mitigation has reduced that number to 100,000 to 200,000 is ludicrous—Yes, Dr. Birx implied that. I am commenting on what they say and what the models say and sad.
Five points on tonight’s press conference. My dislike for the irrational path that we started off on and continue down can not be overstated. 1. The estimate that 1.6 to 2.2 million deaths would have occurred is ridiculous and has no basis in U.S. COVID mortality estimates. Therefore, to imply that some 15 days of mitigation has reduced that number to 100,000 to 200,000 is ludicrous. Either Drs. Fauci and Birx are incompetent or they re unaware of how bogus that starting point of 1.6 to 2.2 million deaths is. 2. We now have Dr. Murray’s model and estimates of death. The model is reasonable, but still overestimates the number of deaths. On his Website https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections he estimates a total of 84,000 deaths with an upper estimate of about 150,000 deaths and a lower estimate of about 40,000 deaths. However, his model is still using artificially high mortality estimates and not taking into account the increasing use of effective therapy nor the small target population for mortality (almost all older with pre-existing illnesses). Thus, his estimates are much too high. 3. When the death total is lower than Dr, Murray’s estimates, Fauci, Birx and President Trump will attribute it not to a faulty model, but to the mitigation strategy. 4.The initial bogus model of the Imperial College of London along with the Fauci and Birx spoked President Trump and governors to severely overreact. This continue overreaction led President Trump into extending the social restrictions another month. 5. Meanwhile so much damage to our economy, our people and our country has happened due to this irrational overreaction.
Jane, Thank you MG
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2020 on Saturday Evening Wind-down at JustOneMinute
Six points on President Trump's decision: 1. The number two million deaths never should have been stated by Fauci or repeated by President Trump today. It has no basis in reality and even Fauci says this is what the number might be if we did nothing. Which is still garbage because not even Imperial College of London stands behind their early nonsense modeling. 2. This was not made clear but the current estimates of number of deaths by the CDC modeling and by Dr Cristopher Murray predicts a likely 80,000 deaths with a lower estimate of 40,000 and an upper estimate of 160,000. This seems to be the estimate recommend to President Trump and the basis for his decision to continue the restrictions until the end of April. 3. This is clearly an overestimate as the effect of successful treatment is not taken into account and the current estimates used in the model are still too high. 4. With Fauci and Birch supporting this, it would be counterproductive for President Trump to go against their recommendation. I have said we need data to get this irrational response ended. I think President Trump feels he does not yet have that data to end this nonsense. 5. Although this was not a good decision today overall for our country, I think President Trump’s instincts told him it was necessary. It does prevent the media from attributing every additional death to President Trump. He has checkmated the media. 6. When this ends with far less deaths it will be time to assess why the public health officials and experts were so off in the predictions. We already know why the media has been alarmists.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2020 on Saturday Evening Wind-down at JustOneMinute
Please become familiar on the retraction of the bogus estimates put out by the Imperial College of London by Nell Ferguson. The Imperial College model was always garbage because they used garbage estimate to create a ‘scare” model” . I have posted for 2 weeks that the COVID-19 transmission was vastly underestimated leading to a vastly overestimate of population mortality and hospitalizations rate (which have not been seen).This is either an egregious error (hard to believe) or outright intentional by Ferguson and the Imperial college group. US media must publicize this retraction and retract their backing of this model.
Given the current situation it is very informative to separate the data in New York State from the rest of the U.S. Total Tested positive (%) Hospitalized(%) NY 103,479 30,811(29.8%) 3,805 (12.3%) Death 285 (0.93%) US-NY 315,331 32,862(10.4%) 2331(7.1%) 602 (1.83%) All US 418,810 63.675(15.2%) 6136 (9.6%) 887 (1.39%) The positive infection rate in NY is about 3 times the rate in the rest of the US (29.8% compared to 10.4 %) and the hospitalization rate if infected is about 1.7 times higher in NY (12.3% compared to 7.1%). Both of these numbers indicate that NY is testing a much higher proportion of highly symptomatic subjects. It is misleading to imply that these numbers are largely due to higher transmission rates in NY, although that may contribute to it. However, the death rate in NY is half the death rate in the rest of the US (0.93% compared to 1.83%). Think of that. Due to testing procedures, there are proportionally more serious cases identified in NY than the rest of the country, yet the mortality rate is half. This is a strong indicator that the treatment is more effective when hospitalized in NY. This may be due to more research hospitals in NY with more use of hydroxychloroquine and other effective but not approved treatments. This indicates that COVID-19 is very treatable with the mortality rate cut in half in NY. In addition, both mortality rates will continue to go down with more testing. The NY data has some encouraging news and begs the question, why continue to close a vital city due to a 0.93% mortality rate and viable treatment options for severe cases. https://covidtracking.com/data
test
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2020 on Drug Trials In New York at JustOneMinute
Current data (see https://covidtracking.com/data/) indicates that NY state testing for COVID-19 is skewed towards people with more severe symptoms. This is an explanation for the current high positive rate and high hospitalization rate in NY. Both will decrease as people with less symptoms are tested. It points to a much smaller hospitalization wave. Do not let the alarmists mislead by data.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2020 on Drug Trials In New York at JustOneMinute
Current data (see https://covidtracking.com/data/) indicates that NY state testing for COVID-19 is skewed towards people with more severe symptoms. This is an explanation for the current high positive rate and high hospitalization rate in NY. Both will decrease as people with less symptoms are tested. It points to a much smaller hospitalization wave. Do not let the alarmists mislead by data.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2020 on Drug Trials In New York at JustOneMinute
anonamom I just saw your mistaken post. My exact words were "In this group the mortality rate is close to zero", which is accurate and is an indicator of a mild COVID-19 virus. MG
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2020 on Back At Ground Zero at JustOneMinute
Extraneous, Sorry, but as more specific characteristics become part of the database refined estimates can be made. But the fact remains that 2.0% is the current mortality rate in the CDC-identified high-risk group. MG
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Back At Ground Zero at JustOneMinute
Jane, other than getting annoyed I'm working and going on as usual, as much as I can, with additional hand-washing and distance.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Back At Ground Zero at JustOneMinute
We can conclude all are above 50 and almost all are above 60 which puts them in a high-risk group. I have also seen the data on how many have co-morbid conditions but don't remember the proportion.The immune-compromised is just a reasonable assumption.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Back At Ground Zero at JustOneMinute
Thank you. The analysis above is my personal analysis.is rather straightforward but gives an an accurate picture of the virus,
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Back At Ground Zero at JustOneMinute
I have a PhD in mathematics and a long career in epidemiology and clinical trials.I have put together seven points to give a perspective on COVID-19: 1.COVID-19 virus seems to be mild in persons under age 50. In this group the mortality rate is close to zero, the rate of severe symptoms causing hospitalization is very low and many are exposed and have no or mild symptoms. These statements are data based. 2.In addition, in the older patients, the case mortality rate is 68 deaths /3487 reported cases= 0.020 (2%) according to the CDC data. These reported cases are clearly persons with the most severe symptoms which led to their testing. These patients are also very likely to have comorbidity and relatively weak immune responses. So, the death rate of COVID-19 in the most vulnerable elderly population who report with serious symptoms is about 2%. 3.This 2% is less than almost any year’s flu mortality in this high-risk group. Putting these two data-based facts together, indicates that COVID-19 is a mild virus along the entire age range. 4.The transmission rate of COVID-19 is not known with any accuracy at this point, but the when testing becomes wide-spread the rate of exposure to COVID-19 will go much higher because many individuals are walking around without symptoms or have gone through a mild case of the virus. 5.The Public Health reaction to COVID-19 is clearly overboard and one along the lines of H1N1 would have been much more appropriate. But for many reasons, not all with good intentions, we went down the current path and there is no way to halt it now. No public figure, public health or political, can step in front of this out-of-control train without getting flattened. 6.Control can only be re-established by data. Testing must be done quickly across all age groups and degree of symptoms (including individuals without apparent infection). Only when the relatively mild nature of COVID-19 gets fleshed out by data will those in authority have the power and nerve to stop this lunacy. 7.Related to point 6, we should all be vigilant for accurate, unbiased methods of collecting the necessary data and analyzing and reporting the results.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Back At Ground Zero at JustOneMinute
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Oct 30, 2017