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Olivier Del Rio
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"Looking at SSTs in the Far North Atlantic (used to be Arctic) and the prevalence of small storms, I'm not convinced the low extent this year will be in September. Seems to me we are in transition from a desert Arctic to a humid Arctic. With H2O being the actual major Greenhouse Gas, this will have more and more significance in upcoming Fall weather patterns. The only question being which year the end of Summer Melt is pushed into the polar night." I must say I agree. What you are seeing is not cold cyclonism. It is not as warm as 2007 for example, yes, but but it is cyclonism above 0°C with rain, rain, and rain. Between the 28th and 30th, daily rainfall as high as 13.4mm for Mould Bay, 2with 2 - 3°C, 20.7 mm at Rea Point ans so on have been recorded. Rain and water can be as destructive as a godd sunny day for the ice and a lot of water vapor allows for a lot of IR radiations. I don't think the future of the Arctic is high pressure areas. The very fast retreat of snow this year leads to an increase of T gradient over the arctic coast and brings this powerfull and rainy cyclones. And, knowning we really don't know what will happen when arctic sea ice is gone, the most credible future is one with warm and wet cyclonism all over Arctic and some thunderstorm. Still a long way before a subtropical storm, but who know ? Perhaps during the nex centuries it will happen. Nevertheless, I don't expect the sea ice will continue to melt due to big ridge and sunny weather.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jul 31, 2016