Hi Neven, thank you for keeping us informed again. Glad you still find the time. In this update you bring up a topic i a was wondering about lately. If you look at the NOAA/ NCS/ NCEP SST anomaly maps on the ASI Graphs page, you'll find a lot of spots with SST anaomalies between 0,25-0,5 degrees where there is supposed to be solid sea ice. Especially on the Siberian side of the arctic. If this map is correct, i guess it would mean that sea ice is less thick there than normally, thus permitting a higher heat flux from the ocean through the ice to the atmosphere. This could support your first hypothesis, the transportation of ice away from the siberian coast , ridging and the formation of new ice, and hence more accurate measurements by Cryosat-2. On the other hand, these temperature anomalies may also be caused by general thinning of the ice, which is reasonable in the light of the lack of freezing power for so long. In that case PIOMAS gives us better insight. I don't know if this reasoning makes any sense, but if the cause is general thinning, we will find out soon enough, come the next melting season.

For a long time i've been following this wonderful blog. Now it seems we're entering the final years and stages of summer sea ice. It really has been a privilege reading all those very well informed and nicely formulated :) comments here , thank you for that. Now i have a question: on the NOAA en DMI SST anomaly charts it seems that water temperature anomalies are getting bigger and bigger the last couple of days. Anyone can comment on this? Is this an artefact? Or are winds stirring up the water, also bringing up deeper layers? That would mean real trouble for the icepack, would't it.

I agree with Kevin McK that less accretion in winter is very important in the decline of ASI. A look at Jim Pettits volume graph at the ASI Graphs page in which he depicts Annual Maximum and Loss, and Ice Remaining at Minimum demonstrates very clearly that the overwhelming majority of sea ice decline stems from less accretion in winter. The trend lines in this graph also make clear that we will practically for sure have a blue ocean event in less then five years. It really takes not too wild an extrapolation to state this. It sure is fun to theorize and hypothesize about the different factors and their effects during melt season. But summer ice melt has just marginally increased in the last decades. The real damage comes from less cold in winter. That's why i also agree with Wayne's repeated statements that this years minimum will at least be top 3, if not record low. Even a very regular melt season suffices when you start out with such low volume numbers in april. Just look at Jim's graph.