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Mike Thornton
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....on top of that, long-term unemployment isn't falling at a faster rate. In fact, the ranks of the long-term unemployed have been falling at a consistent pace for years: New Republic A recent Fed study: 'Without extended unemployment benefits in late 2013, researchers at the St. Louis Fed found that unemployed workers would have been more likely to find work and on average 1.9 percent less likely to remain unemployed.' So fewer than 2 in 100 were affected by extending benefits. In the 66 years that the federal government has been keeping employment statistics, there have never been so many people — either as a percentage or just in number — who have been unemployed for so long as in the years since the end of the Great Recession. A report from the Economic Policy Institute released Thursday noted the percentage of unemployed people receiving unemployment insurance benefits has dropped to 25.9 percent, the lowest level since 1987. That translates to about 7.1 million people who are unemployed, but not receiving benefits. Those ranks include people who are long-term unemployed, as well as those who just entered the workforce and would not be eligible for benefits, plus those who quit their jobs and are therefore not eligible. Pittsburgh Post Gazette - Sept 28, 2014 The facts show that a recent 3 month bump in jobs is not the sole reflection of the long-term unemployed no longer receiving extended benefits. I hope you restate your conclusion.
The number of long-term unemployed dropped last month, but there are still 3.1 million people searching for jobs who don't qualify for insurance. That group represents over 30 percent of the country's total unemployment rate. And that recent drop in the number of long-term unemployed isn't entirely good news: many of those stuck without jobs simply give up searching for work and are no longer counted in the government's statistics. A study by Alan Krueger, a Princeton professor and former member of the Obama administration, found that between 2008 and 2013, just 22 percent of the long-term unemployed had managed to lock down a full-time job, while 35 percent had stopped looking for work. Mother Jones The latest research on this topic from Katharine Bradbury of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ... finds that unemployment does go up when unemployment benefits are extended, but the question is why. Does it discourage workers from taking jobs, or discourage them from leaving the labor force? Bradbury pointed out that the earlier research shows it's mostly the latter, that extending unemployment benefits causes workers to stay in the labor force longer before dropping out. No notable impact was found on their willingness to take available jobs. ... NY Times
You 'analysis' takes into account the last three months of job data. Your vacancy rates started their upward trajectory 3 months AFTER extended benefits expired. How in all honesty can you place so much confidence on three months worth of data? Did you do the same analysis when unemployment was extended during the first GOP recessions of 2001 and 2003? Did you do the same analysis for the extended benefits period during the 1990s? No, apparently not. You put a great deal of weight on a historically short period of time. Also, you do not mention that only about 25% of all unemployed collect benefits, so you ignore the effect of the 75% of unemployed who DID NOT collect benefits. Maybe you can extrapolate this: During the first months of the 2008 recession, jobs were lost at such a rapid rate because unemployment benefits were only 26 weeks? Would you try that approach? No. But you can apply the same approach to few workers and corresponding job 'creation' for the past couple months? Did you fail to read this per chance? We now have three months’ worth of job market data since the benefits program expired. There’s been no major shift since the benefits program expired at the end of last year. 538 dot com More on next post.
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Oct 1, 2014