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Niall Murray
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@ Karen Elliot - if you are going to cite evidence on Kosovo, you should probably find a better source than Chomsky, whose despicable support for genocide deniers in that conflict is well documented.
Syria: overconfidence & tribalism
Almost everyone seems to have an opinion about whether (pdf) or not to bomb ISIL*. Are they really all experts on the complexities of Syrian military and political affairs? Maybe not. There's another possibility: overconfidence. We tend to exaggerate our knowledge and under-estimate uncertainty....
Do we not also see the "availability heuristic" at work here in framing our decisions on whether or not to use force? The unknowable and messy consequences of action (as with Iraq) are forever in our minds, but not the consequences or responsibility for inaction. The SNP and many of Corbyn's supporters make much of their "principled" opposition to Iraq, and we remember the consequences of that engagement. OK, but what of their "principled" objections to helping the people of Kosovo as they faced genocide? Alex Salmond went from studio to studio, repeating his line that is was "unpardonable folly" to intervene. He wanted to wash his hands of these far away people and leave them to their fate - far better than a messy foreign engagement with unknown lives lost. And yet, that engagement worked. It did save lives, and the people of Kosovo are for ever in the dreaded Blair's debt.
We neither remember this, nor call on those who wanted to leave people to their fate to account. If it didn't happen, it isn't in our minds - even if actions by British politicians stopped it from happening. Rather as a recession can affect behaviours for years afterwards, a disastrous military campaign (Iraq, Suez) can shape thinking for decades to come - but not necessarily in a good way.
Syria: overconfidence & tribalism
Almost everyone seems to have an opinion about whether (pdf) or not to bomb ISIL*. Are they really all experts on the complexities of Syrian military and political affairs? Maybe not. There's another possibility: overconfidence. We tend to exaggerate our knowledge and under-estimate uncertainty....
Do you really mean a register of best practice, which suggests a list of successful changes that can be replicated, or given that we are trying to judge effectiveness between councils, are we really talking about performance statistics?
The former seems a useful idea allowing interested councils to seek out opportunity. The latter smacks of the kind of managerialism and counterproductive changing to hit the measure that you so often complain about?
"Best practice"
David Cameron's letter (pdf) to Oxfordshire County Council has been widely criticized, but I fear there's one thing his critics are under-playing. Cameron wrote: I would have hoped that Oxfordshire would instead be following the best practice of Conservative councils from across the country in ...
Hang on, Thatcher had a first class education in Science (Chemistry) before qualifying as a Lawyer. You can call her many hings, but she was no slouch in that respect. Who were these intellectually superior wets you talk about?
Intellect in politics
How important is intelligence and education to politicians? I ask because of Martin Amis's jibe that Corbyn is "under-educated" and "slow-minded" and Tristram Hunt's claim that it is the responsibility of the brightest 1% to "take leadership going forward." Both men seem to presume - without add...
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May 8, 2015
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