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Ryantology
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-Test Ayotte vs. Ovide Lamontagne. Lamontagne is unlikely to run, but since no other names have been seriously rumored he would be the best option. Also, since Lamontagne was used in the last poll we would have trendlines to give an idea whether she has improved or worsened her standing with the primary electorate. (Bill O'Brien was also rumored, but has since ruled out running for any office next year). -D's to poll vs. Ayotte: Maggie Hassan, Chris Pappas, Ann Kuster, Paul Hodes (said last month that he was being encouraged to run, and if Hassan does not run he will consider it. I know many will dismiss him, but since he has publicly discussed possibly running he should be polled at least this time) -Governor: Maggie Hassan/Chris Pappas/Colin Van Ostern vs. Chris Sununu/Jeb Bradley -PolitiCohen's testing Ron Paul is a pretty good idea. You should try that in some form (whether give a separate version of the primary question with Ron instead of Rand, testing Ron vs. Rand, or whatever). Also, I know you probably have ideas of future states to poll, but here are some states that have seen little polling that could be good to look at: -Mississippi (elections this November with almost no released polls, would be interesting to see the impact of the Robert Gray episode on Jim Hood's re-election chances) -Georgia (Isakson seems to be safe, but with no polling data released would be good to see if there is any potential vulnerability in primary/general, and also good to see a glimpse of the presidential picture) -California (chance to get a view of the Senate race now that most major candidates have made a decision) -Alaska (no polls this cycle, would be good to see whether Murkowski actually has any potential primary vulnerability) -North Dakota (with Heitkamp still considering running for governor and expected to announce a decision in the next few months it would be good to see how she matches up if she ran)
The Governor race is not until 2017, but the campaign has really already begun. Governor D primary: Mark Herring vs. Ralph Northam [Northam already effectively announced he is running, and Herring is expected to run as well. Unless a deal is reached for one to run for Governor and one for re-election, this is likely the primary match-up] Governor General: poll Herring and Northam each against Mark Obenshain. (If any other Republicans are used, the most likely other candidates to run include Frank Wagner, Rob Wittman, Randy Forbes, Jeff McWaters, and Pete Snyder. Ed Gillespie is an option, but has insisted repeatedly he is not interested and looks more likely to run for Senate in '18 or '20 if he runs for anything. Better choices may include less likely to run but better known options such as Ken Cuccinelli, EW Jackson, or Eric Cantor. You could also include Gilmore for fun.) This year has elections for the State House and Senate, so maybe test a generic House/Senate/legislative ballot. Possible Topics to ask about: medicaid expansion, confederate flag, ENDA, marijuana, nonpartisan redistricting. Test Bob McDonnell favorable ratings. Also, while people are outraged over restrictions to early voting in some states, Virginia does not allow regular early voting at all. People can vote an absentee ballot only with a valid excuse, and can cast an absentee in person. Ask whether early voting (with out excuse) should be allowed. Another idea would be to ask support for moving to a Vote By Mail system for elections.
Also, Anthony Foxx had ruled out, but has not had any comment since Hagan's announcement. There has been speculation of efforts to attempt to recruit him, so it might be worth including him this time. State Auditor Beth Wood and Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin have both announced that they are running for re-election, but either could potentially switch to the Senate race, so could be an option to poll either a first time. The LG race has been getting polled, so since we have candidates for some of the other races you could consider polling those races too. AG- Josh Stein vs. Buck Newton Labor Commissioner- Cherie Berry vs. Charles Meeker And some suggestions for upcoming states to poll- Illinois (there have been very few polls this cycle despite being a major race), Missouri, Georgia (no polling of this race, would be good to see just how strong Isakson is looking)
SEN (R primary): Richard Burr vs. Mark Meadows There is a big draft movement going on to get Meadows to challenge Burr, which has been getting coverage in conservative media. It is uncertain whether he will actually run, but this could at least give an indication of how vulnerable Burr is to his right (and Meadows is at least as likely if not more as Ken Blackwell was to run for the Senate). As for Democratic choices, include Heath Shuler. While many Democrats would prefer someone else, he has been getting mentioned in lots of pieces since Hagan declined as a potential candidate. Other options to consider: Grier Martin, Tom Ross, Nancy McFarlane, Josh Stein, Cal Cunningham, Dan Blue
-Poll Governor, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Auditor, and Ag Comm. Include Drew Curtis in the Governor poll. -Test a generic legislative ballot -State Supreme Court: Janet Stumbo vs. Sam Wright -ratings for McConnell, Beshear, Comer -Ask about Rand Paul running for both Senate and President (should that be allowed, or which office(s) would you want him to run for) -US Senate- Rand Paul vs. Steve Beshear/Crit Luallen. Since there are no declared or likely candidates identified yet, Beshear and Luallen should definitely be polled. Both should have high ID, and give an idea of a best case scenario for any Democrat. Luallen seemed almost zero chance before, but there have been recent reports that her time as LG has revived her interest in political office. -opinion of: KYNect/Obamacare, marijuana/medical marijuana legalization, same sex marriage, TPA/TPP, right-to-work
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Jun 16, 2015