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Mishkilji
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This could be a flashlight used to disorient an assailant. BGs often carry them, mine did.
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2016 on Diazepam? at Sic Semper Tyrannis
What will happen between 2 November, 2015 and 1 February 2016? Syria – The R+6 lift the siege of Aleppo and make gains in Idlib province. Rapid progress seems unlikely as winter rains slow the pace of their advance. Diplomatic efforts at Vienna likewise stall as patrons wait for an elusive battlefield advantage. The binary choice of Asad-lead Syria vs ISIS/Jihadis becomes clearer. Key drivers · Turk decisions regarding allowing foreign fighter flows into Syria · Ability of Syrian government to secure and extend governance into regained territory Turkey – Erdogan faces a critical choice: policy retreat in Syria vs crushing the coalescing Kurdish nation. He chooses the latter. Key Drivers · Russian leverage points · Turkey’s Economic performance · ISIS decision whether to escalate Turkish front Iraq - Abadi government has marginal success against ISIS Key drivers · Abadi’s ability to shave off Sunni support for ISIS and implement sufficient political reforms to isolate the movement. Israel – The Arab Spring comes to Israel. Israeli-Palestinian violence escalates with numerous low level clashes indicating a breakdown of state control on radicals from both sides. Iran – Assessing that the Wahhabi/ISIS tide has been stemmed, Tehran wrestles with a key question. How far to push the envelope on Saudi stability in a way that will not prompt a US response, yet take advantage of a US regional retreat before it can be reversed by a new administration. Key Drivers · How does Iranian leadership view this: Is time on Tehran’s side or a historic window of opportunity closing? Gulfies - Slow grind in Syria is acceptable, but military situation in Yemen deteriorates. Rifts emerge in Royal family. Wahhabi discontent over Saudi Arabia’s failure to lead Sunni world gathers steam. Key Driver: Is Saudi domestic and foreign policy capacity up to the challenge? US – Obama wants to push Mideast off the table to set up HRC for 2016 but cannot come to grasp the contradictions in its policy. Seeks all-party truce in Syria while Vienna political process tries to solve crisis. Key Driver: If R+6 military progress is rapid, the US eventually recognizes it has set up circumstances that dupes Russia into fighting America’s war against ISIS. Russia – Military progress does not translate into a political settlement in Syria. Fissures emerge between Russian, Iranian and SARG emerge over end state in Syria and whether to squeeze Turkey over foreign fighter issue. Putin does have an advantage: strategic patience. Ukraine – No significant change Afghanistan – Stalemate. Obama “succeeds” in putting an Afghan policy on autopilot for the next administration and wonders why he can’t do the same in Syria. World Economy – Sluggish with no traction China – Embraces Napoleon’s maxim: Don’t interrupt your enemies while they are making a mistake.
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Nov 5, 2015