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Pearl is referring to vos Savant's second explanation, in response to initial criticisms. Her first, which is the one that sold me instantly (after being confused by others that fit Pearl's discussion quite well), was, in entirety:
"Suppose there are a million doors, and you pick door #1. Then the host, who knows what’s behind the doors and will always avoid the one with the prize, opens them all except door #777,777. You’d switch to that door pretty fast, wouldn’t you?."
Judea Pearl on the Meaning of the Monty Hall...
Judea Pearl on the Meaning of the Monty Hall problem: **Judea Pearl**: (2018): _[The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect](https://books.google.com/books?id=9H0dDQAAQBAJ)_ (New York: Basic Books: 046509760X): "Even today, many people seeing the puzzle for the first time find the resul...
Indeed. "When I contacted the two economists whose opinions differed, they said that their answers were an error, and that they actually disagreed with the claim." https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/4/15536394/american-economists-trump-tax-plan
Early Monday Smackdown: Chicago Booth Edition
**Tax Reforms** : **UPDATE: Alexia Fernández Campbell**: "When I contacted the two economists whose opinions differed, they said that their answers were an error, and that they actually disagreed with the claim..." I know of no works of theory or empirical analysis that says that the one page o...
Front pages are always built by Ferengi.
**Randall Munroe**: _[University Website][]_...
**Randall Munroe**: _[University Website][]_ **(Live from the Dysfunctional Side of the Internet)**: [University Website]: http://www.xkcd.com/773/
I presume a "marginal wax rate" refers to a bikini wax being most severe at the edges.
**Must-Read:** Speaking as a card-carrying...
**Must-Read:** Speaking as a card-carrying neoliberal and as a proud member of the Rubinite wing of the Democratic Party, I say that back in the early and mid-1990s we had a theory of why (major increases in top marginal wax rates, the expansion of the EITC, and the push for universal health insu...
It would be a shame not to settle on "the alt-white".
**Storify**: _["Fighting with -------- on...
**Storify**: _["Fighting with -------- on Twitter"!][]_: A vice, best entertained not too often, but fun in small doses... ["Fighting with -------- on Twitter"!]: https://storify.com/delong/fighting-with-on-twitter [View the story ""Fighting with ******* on Twitter"!" on Storify]
Taj Mahal workers have been on strike for a month. The evil of unionization has destroyed the Taj Mahal. Obviously.
**Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Gehenna:**...
**Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Gehenna:** Is Donald Trump trying actively to lose this election!? **Nicholas Huba**: _[Trump Taj Mahal announces it will close][]_: >ATLANTIC CITY – Trump Taj Mahal is set to close its doors after Labor Day weekend... [Trump Taj Mahal announces it will clos...
If you rank countries by rate of college enrollment, the U.S. is #1. If you rank countries by rate of college graduation, we’re not even in the top 10. This gap...
That's not a gap. That's a corollary.
Weekend Reading: Clay Shirky: The Digital Revolution in Higher Education Has Already Happened. No One Noticed
**Clay Shirky**: [The Digital Revolution in Higher Education Has Already Happened. No One Noticed](https://medium.com/@cshirky/the-digital-revolution-in-higher-education-has-already-happened-no-one-noticed-78ec0fec16c7): >In the fall of 2012, the most recent semester with complete data in the U.S...
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