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Colonel, Obama managed to pull ALL of the troops out of Iraq (nominally, and as much as is humanely possible) despite the same types of subversion. Unless I am mistaken. Trump has not drawn troops down to zero in any country. I concede that Obama got lucky, and I recognize that fighting the borg is extremely difficult. It is precisely because fighting the borg is so difficult that I think it is unwise to put too much faith into any one individual. Except Tulsi - I would follow Tulsi to the ends of the earth.
Colonel, You have forgotten more about how the military works than I can ever hope to know, so I have to defer to you on this matter. But I cannot help but remain cynical.
EEngineer, Over how? His own party is against him. Fox has no real loyalty to him. He's had four years to pull the troops out of somewhere, anywhere - and has not done so. In terms of what he has actually done (pulling out of the JCOPA, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and recognizing Israel's annexation of the Golan heights) he has been a neocon wet dream. I don't see anything coming to an end.
You have great stories, Colonel.
Igor, I was just on the Telegram website and they boast "Our apps are open source and support reproducible builds". Wow. That is a big deal. This means that anyone can take a look at the source code and see how it works. This is a level of transparency that other apps would never provide to their users.
To follow up on my previous comment about possible EU membership for Belarus - while I think it would be very enticing for Belarussians, I am not sure that the EU will offer Belarus this because it could tilt the dynamics within the EU towards being less hostile to Russia. If a country within the EU is pro-Russia and wants good relations with Russia, that would push the EU towards being less hysterically hostile to Russia.
The numbers of protesters continues to increase. I am not so naive to not understand that western powers are involved in this, but I think that the Belarussians are also fed up with Lukashenko. Belarus is very much in play. My big question is - will Belarus be offered EU membership? This is the biggest card that Washington/Berlin have to play. As for "Moscow would have been perfectly happy with a neutral, independent and prosperous Ukraine" ... I don't think that is quite true. Before Maidan, Ukraine was being told *both* by the EU and by Russia that they had to choose ... they could have a free trade agreement with one or the other.
I am fascinated by the potential for AI in air-to-air missiles. My undestanding is that traditional air-to-air missiles are useless once they lose a lock on a target, or if they miss a target. This seems to me to be an artifact of rocket motors that accelerate the missile to top speed, then burn out and can no longer provide thrust. If instead a missile is powered by a ramjet engine (eg the Meteor), then it can be something more akin to a hunter killer drone than a simple missile. Hunter killer ATGMs are also possible. I think this is where AI can provide a lot of value - more so than AI powered fighters. If the missiles are smart, the vehicle that gets them to be "within range" can be relatively dumb.
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2020 on AI In Warfare By Walrus. at Sic Semper Tyrannis
"Israel and the Gulf Arabs share hatred for Iran." Do they? The average Gulf Arabs are totally in line with their leadership are they? How do they feel about Nasrallah? I don't know - but I have some Israeli friends who go on and on about how much the Gulf Arabs hate Iran and now feel solidarity with Israel. My reaction is "have you ever actually met any (regular) Gulf Arabs"? I have not met any regular Gulf Arabs myself. I have no idea what they think.
Bill H If someone calls you on the phone and tells you they work for a polling company - you are going to be afraid? It seems I am going to be the anti-Travis for 2020 on SST. Travis was impressive as heck in his arguments and reasoning for how Trump was going to win in 2016. I think that my prediction that Trump will lose in 2020 will also be proven right - but I don't think I can argue for this prediction as eloquently as Travis did.
The polls in 2016 were off by 2-3 percent, but Trump is behind by a larger margin than that in the polls that I have seen. Covid has been a godsend for Biden. I think Biden is going to win in November, but these things tend to be closer than partisans on either side expect.
By charging him with murder and not manslaughter, the DA was intentionally putting Chauvin into a good position to get off. I'm no BLM supporter, but watch the tape and tell me that Chauvin is not guilty of manslaughter.
mcohen, Lumping together adult women engaging in prostitution with the sexual abuse of children is, in my opinion, not the most honest way of thinking about these issues. If Prince Andrew had spent a night with a 25 year old call girl that would have been entirely different than what he did.
Covid-19 sounds right to me.
Tyler had a lot of interesting things to say in 2016. I for one would be interested to hear what he is thinking this time around.
J, A Russian friend tells me that the Russians view Poland as being like a very small but very loudly barking dog who barks at you incessantly while hiding behind its owner.
I look forward to Biden becoming president so that I don't have to listen to my college educated white friends blame everything on Trump.
Putin claims that US intelligence agencies provided material support to terrorist groups (aka freedom fighters) in Chechnya (I presume during the first and second Chechyan wars). He hasn't provided any proof, but I think he genuinely believes it.
All, Is there any chance that this is an organized and planned "light color revolution", or is such an idea overly paranoid?
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2020 on Discussion on CW/WBS at Sic Semper Tyrannis
I'm starting to think that drones on the battlefield are as important as the Germans putting radios into tanks. If I was Putin my main interest would be in using the battlefield as a test laboritory for Russian kit against western kit. And I have trouble believing that the Turkish drones are performing so well without Israeli help.
Fred, OK - thank you.
Somebody please tell me what Lauren Bacall told Bogart!
Colonel, I think the quality of some liberal arts degrees might have suffered since when you were at University. Last Christmas I listened to my niece go on and on about "power discourses", and this sort of postmodernist whine has, I have heard, infected some English departments.
I will miss his contributions to SST. Rest in peace.
David Solomon, I think Roubini is biased towards pessimism. He correctly called the 2008 crash - but he spectacularly failed to call the recovery (it happened much earlier than he predicted). Barry Ritholtz on the other hand called both the crash ... and more impressively, called the recovery with better timing than anyone else who I was tracking. My money is on Ritholtz.