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Bram
Netherlands
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.” –Leo Tolstoy
Recent Activity
The Forum Front Page Contarian Indicator
There's some research that when the cover of magazines are bullish or bearish it is a contrarian indicator. The Economist has a cool article on how to differentiate further between covers. When I visited the best investing forum I know, I found this curious first thread page today: Signaling a... Continue reading
Posted Apr 21, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Tesla The Next Valeant?
exploitation of the love of storied narratives to influence elite opinion, and exploit the public and investors (who transfer assets to promoters). Credible stories about new or emerging opportunities, markets and technologies appeal widely and are most dangerous over time, particularly if supported by strong favourable emotions, positive market action... Continue reading
Posted Apr 14, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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5 Good Short Reads
A few good reads for the evening: The ETF bubble continues to expand (FB) (GOOG) (NFLX) JANA Partners betting big on Whole Foods (WFM) Start betting on female CEOs Half of U.S. stock-market wealth creation has come from 0.33% of listed companies. Sears and the 50% yield (SHLD) Continue reading
Posted Apr 11, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Geneba continues to trade at a 28% discount to Net Asset Value
Posted Apr 1, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Rockstart Health Valley Demo Day
Posted Mar 30, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Mark Suster Is Wrong, Snapchat And Channeling Warren Buffett
Mark Suster on the Snapchat IPO: My job as a VC isn’t to beat myself up or any other partner up for the one deal we didn’t do. My job is simply to make sure we’re getting into a few industry defining investments per fund and to make sure we... Continue reading
Posted Feb 21, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Munger At The Daily Journal Annual Meeting
Mr. Munger takes the stage at The Daily Journal Annual Meeting for no less than two hours. Continue reading
Posted Feb 18, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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9 Great Investment Ideas
After soliciting my fellow Seeking Alpha Exclusive Research contributors for their best investment ideas for 2017 they send me nine very interesting ones. I wasn't familiar with 7 out of 9 so it certainly yielded more work. Added up these research services end up at almost $6k on an annual... Continue reading
Posted Feb 4, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Mobs, Messiahs and Markets
Students of human behavior who seek champions of “mob sentiment” need search no farther than the local newspaper or television newscast. Journalists present their publications as mere windows through which readers can view the world. This metaphor doesn’t hold up to scrutiny, for newspapers ignore events that don’t fit their... Continue reading
Posted Feb 2, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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You'll Prove Them Wrong When They're Dead
In case you were expecting everyone to come around to your side because you are right: Max Planck, the physicist, once explained why science is slow to change. New concepts, he said, aren’t accepted by changing people’s minds. Instead, science accepts a new truth “when its opponents eventually die, and... Continue reading
Posted Jan 30, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Fluffy Capital
Very well written and entertaining report by Collaborativefunds on a perceived shift in asset management: Lehman Brothers’ stock peaked in 2007. It was bankrupt 10 months later. It’s shocking how close these two events occurred. But when you piece together what happen, it starts to make sense. Part 2: Taking... Continue reading
Posted Jan 29, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Deutsche Worried About Other Banks
Alarm bells? CEO John Cryan said in Davos that "asset management remains absolutely core," but if Deutsche is struggling, how are other banks doing? Ding, ding, ding! $DB Continue reading
Posted Jan 25, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Europe The Next Latin America
"The real story is that the developed world is entering a period of populism ... at a time when parts of Latam, which experimented with that populism and found it ended in social and economic chaos, have done a 180 degree turn," Michael Hastenstab explaining why Argentine debt is attractive Continue reading
Posted Jan 20, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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The Value of Hot News: Intellectual Property and the Sell-Side Research Industry
Interesting new paper(emphasis mine): Abstract: We examine the value of sell-side analysts by exploiting an exogenous court case (Barclays Capital v. theflyonthewall.com (FLY)) that diminished the intellectual property of brokers providing research. Between 2009 and 2013, approximately 60% of all recommendation revisions are leaked by FLY and one-third of these... Continue reading
Posted Jan 18, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Intelligent Business Machine
Really don't want to research or buy megacaps right now but $IBM's Rometty is making it hard. Continue reading
Posted Jan 18, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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The Jelly Donut Theory
From the just released Greenlight Capital Q4 2016 letter In response, monetary policy is poised to tighten. Conventional wisdom says this will slow growth, but we continue to disagree. Our Jelly Donut thesis on monetary policy contends that ultra-low interest rates deprive households (savers) of income to the point that... Continue reading
Posted Jan 17, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Is It A Local Thing?
Posted Jan 15, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Welcome To The Union D'Italia
“the creation of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the euro were intended to prevent a repetition of the history of the Banca D’Italia funding the chronic deficits of the Republic of Italy with money creation and the endless depreciation of the Italian lire [sic]. Now the euro... Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Dinosaurs Couldn't Borrow This Cheaply
So we are somewhere near the bottom of a 35 year interest rate downtrend. What if it starts trending up? Continue reading
Posted Jan 10, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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The Way Of The Dodo
Back in 2007 and 2008, I wrote that streaming was preferable to file based media. I expected the market to flip quickly. A decade later, the market is in the process of flipping. Fred Wilson How true is that? Cigarettes still around Faxing still around ($JCOM is making sick money... Continue reading
Posted Jan 9, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Where To Search For Outperformance
Posted Jan 7, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Reading Markets: Weekend Edition
Weekend reading and one podcast if you're into investing. Enjoy: Hedge Fund Och-Ziff Had A BAD Year The Butcher of Sears Holding Will Impact Investing Take Off In 2017? Why Medium Failed To Disrupt The Media KKR Has 25% More Upside VC's Find The Stupid Money "If you don't know... Continue reading
Posted Jan 7, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Blendle Gets Hammered On Bloomberg
Auch, some vicious critique of the Dutch startup darling Blendle on Bloomberg: I am deeply skeptical of pay-per-story models, including that of the company touted as the first success of the approach, Dutch-based Blendle. The company, which counts The New York Times and Germany's Axel Springer among its shareholders, offers... Continue reading
Posted Jan 7, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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Active Investing Has A Bad Rep For Giving You What You Want
MemyselfandI put up a very interesting post on his or her blog Value and Opportunity. It is about active management and why it is often a subpar experience. Many managers of actively managed funds have to seriously consider career risk and marketing viability when constructing their portfolio. Meanwhile, it is... Continue reading
Posted Jan 6, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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The WSJ's Subtle Humor
WSJ reported on China banning the New York Times app: China has a long history of banning digital sites and companies that it believes are spreading rumors, promoting illegal services like drug peddling or harming national security. Continue reading
Posted Jan 5, 2017 at The Adventure of Ideas
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