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Jeremie Cohen-Setton
Washington, DC
Research Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Recent Activity
Got it. Thanks for the clarification.
Thanks for your feedback. I suppose my question wasn't clear. I understand what you explained. My question was whether you understood why the Average Import Tariff line in Figure 1 remained flat after new tariffs were implemented. In the case you mentioned, the tariff on washing machines were implemented on Jan. 22, you assigned them to Feb, but the Average Import Tariff remains flat between Feb and March. Washing machines do not account for much imports so maybe the increase is no visible in this case. But we can observe the same pattern for the Steel and Aluminum tariff, which are quantitatively bigger so should show up in Average Import Tariff. In this case, tariffs go into effect on March 23 https://piie.com/system/files/documents/trump-trade-war-timeline.pdf, so you assign them to April, but the Average Import Tariff value isn't affected until May. Was that because there was a further lag in the actual implementation of these tariffs? That pattern doesn't appear to apply for the second wave of Steel and Aluminum tariff. In June, the slope of the Average Import Tariff appears affected exactly when the new tariffs are implemented, not with a one-month lag.
Do you know why there seems to be a one-month lag between the implementation date of several tariffs (e.g washing machines, steel, china 1) and actual implementation of higher tariffs as revealed by data on average import tariffs (blue line in your first figure)?
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Jan 14, 2019