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Hey cc--I've looked like a (reasonably well-groomed) hippy for a hell of a long time (no surprise to you). Has led to many a late night "debate." After 10:00 and a few cocktails the reserved and polite Dr. Jekyll gives way to Mr Hyde, hard-core MAGA guy. And I mean it about your stuff being the best. Keep it up. Dave!! (I got lost in Typepad Hell, and took a hiatus for a while. Also I can't figure out whether our gracious host is just trolling or really buys the Peggy Noonan version of the world. I sure as hell hope it's the former).
ccgirl is a little bit "out there" but is truly good people, and her stuff is the best. Just stay out of her way! :^)
"Reporters aren't lazy. Telling the truth would be easier than lying." This quote from Gavin Wax' article about the FDA linked by Clarice above says it all. When I read anything from the WaPO or the NYT, or even AP, McClatchy or Reuters, I am on edge. What lie are they spinning now? Why are they using this language instead of something more concise and straightforward? This has been true for a very long time. It is not the result of sloppiness or bad editing. It's an agenda. (Note that I did not italicize the quote. A man's gotta know his limitations.)
I am not a scientist but I did stay at a Holiday inn Express--well no I didn't because they are all closed. In any event it seems to unsophisticated me that the places with the worst outbreaks of the epidemic are the places where the ordinary course of life, and the well-intentioned shelter-in-place orders, engendered and/or required everyone to stay in close proximity to one or more people without fresh air for an extended period of time--Wuhan, Italy, Spain, NYC. My intuitive sense tells me that this is not healthy--that it is a good thing to get outside, away from the concentrated air we breath and expel in our enclosed spaces, away from the aggregate accumulating virus that builds upon itself. The people getting horribly ill--including our very brave and heroic medical people-do not seem to be getting sick from casual exposure, such as having a jogger exhale within 6 feet, but from repeated, concentrated exposure in very close proximity. It is obviously true that the spread of the virus depends on people having casual contact with multiple other individuals. But this is inevitable, and that barn door has been open for a long time. I guess my point is that ordering everyone to be shut up indoors seems intuitively like a recipe for absolute disaster, and that the minimal benefit of potentially preventing/slowing the dispersion of the virus through casual contact is a fool's errand. (My understanding of this Osterholm guy is that he believes the same; his cowardice in not forcefully stating this publicly while at the same time whining about a lack of "leadership" in government is why I am so disgusted with him)
Toggle Commented Apr 12, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
"HSP"??!! Jeezus, Ext, what are you trying to do here? I'm sticking with "Your Royal Highness" or "Most Exalted Majesty" at least until the florist shops get reopened.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
So yesterday I suggested that this Osterholm guy might be somebody Trump should consider putting on his team, even though, as Gus and others pointed out, he's a "credentialed liberal." Well maybe Trump will put him on his commission, and perhaps that would be a smart move, but it turns out that I have been forced to tell my lovely bride that, indeed and alas, he is full of shit like all the others. Listened to podcast #2 (March 31--3 days later than #1 which caused me to think that the guy gets it)) today while driving to pick up some fence posts, He repeated much of what he had said in the last podcast, patted himself on the back for how they had got the numbers right (as of that date) but was curiously less forthcoming about his belief that sporting events should stay open, etc. and much more gloom and doom (as Porch noted). Nonetheless he stressed the importance of reopening the economy; he also said that obesity was identified as a key factor in CV severity and morbidity at all ages, and that there is virtually no morbidity amongst the young, and said that shutting things down simply will not work. So far so good. The interviewer then asked the question which I would have asked myself: "Ok you have been critical of a lack of leadership and said we need to reopen the economy while taking the appropriate and necessary steps to protect our health. What is your plan?" He then spent literally 10 minutes talking about the problems faced by heroic medical providers (all absolutely true and correct) and PPE shortages, and then said something to the effect that having daily press conferences isn't going to do it, etc. He finally came around to saying that his plan is to get all the smart people together and come up with a plan. I am afraid that I became somewhat intemperate and said something to the effect of "You're the fucking expert, you know exactly what the problem is and what the solution is, have the fucking balls to say it!" Loser douche and coward. My wife agreed that he hadn't really offered any solutions. She said she would listen to a more recent podcast (perhaps taking into account the much more optimistic numbers from the past few days) to see what he says. But a profile in courage he ain't. (heading out to pick up dinner--back in a while.)
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Very sorry about Maggie, MM.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Rick ain't that smart, Iggy.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Thanks, Iggy.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Aw, hell... I though I turned this off. Help!
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Given Osterholm's impeccable lib credentials and MN provenance, this would be pretty hard to do. They have no shame and a huge audience. Porch. Far better men have been trashed for taking their mantra of "speaking truth to power" seriously. I do agree that there are a lot of liberals who want the country to get back to work again even if it means Trump gets elected. My lovely bride for one, who doesn't own a small business but knows lots of people who do and are really getting screwed by this. Off to bed. Good Night.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
https://peterattiamd.com/michaelosterholm/ Sounds like a guy who likes the sound of his own voice, and is looking forward to selling some more books. But he also seems to have the chops, and to be willing to say that this is really bad for fat old people who smoke and that it's not bad at all for healthy people under 50, and that we can't shut down the economy, and that a whole lot of what we are doing is wrong and counterproductive. If the MSM is willing to put him on as a Trump critic, he might get heard. Instead we get Fauci and Brix, who say we shouldn't do anything until we know everything and the coast is clear. Of course the MSM would undoubtedly paint him as a quack, charlatan and hustler. But at this point, as Trump said when Fauci tried to stomp on the chloroquine hope--"What do you have to lose?"
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Well, Gus, that would explain why my lovely bride is listening to his podcast. But Osterholm is apparently a credentialed libtard making the argument that perhaps shutting the country down might not be such a good thing. Trump needs political cover here.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
Interesting, Porch. I did a Bing search and didn't find much, except that on Feb. 9th (note the date--well after the xenophobic Orange Man said no more Chinavirus-bearing flights) he was saying this is no big deal and not much to be concerned about. But this podcast was from 3/28, and he was saying things like we did a lot of things because we didn't really know what we were dealing with, and that closing the schools was a bad idea, and (what made sense to me) that we can't shut it all down forever and we can't really contain it, and that people do die even without Covid). I have never heard of him before. I would really like to avoid having to tell my lovely bride that, alas, he's full of shit like the rest of them. I was sort of thinking this might be a breakthrough here. Ah well...
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
My wife and I seldom agree on anything remotely political, and she despises the Very Stable Genius with an irrational passion. She and I are nonetheless in agreement on the basics of the Coronavirus thing (the panic is worse than the disease, commonsense isolation of at-risk groups and reasonable social distancing makes sense, the shutting down of small businesses is a crime, etc., and most importantly we desperately need to get the economy started again ASAP). While driving today she played a podcast of this guy Dr. Michael Osterholm, a sort of quasi-celebrity epidemiologist, who made a fair amount of sense. It should be noted that he has recently been featured with an op-ed in the WaPo, on CNN and MSNBC, etc.--apparently because he has been critical of Trump on issues like the PPE shortage and the alleged lack of "leadership" on issues related to the CV crisis. Hence my wife knows about him. He seems kind of politically naïve but is apparently unafraid to say what he thinks. The thing is, his primary criticism (as I understand it) has been that the "leaders" in Washington need to move to get the economy started, and that the extreme containment measures are actually counterproductive. My thought is that Trump should put this guy on his team and let him take the political heat for saying Fauci and Blix are overdoing things. Trump needs to get out of the box that his "experts" have put him in, and start pushing the reopening of the economy. He should get a credentialed critic and media-certified "expert" on board to provide the appropriate cover. Just my 2 cents. Does anybody know anything about this guy?
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2020 on Good Friday at JustOneMinute
I'm here in Hartford where the weather today was splendid early spring--60 degrees and sunny. If failing to "shelter in place" means the virus wins (I don't believe that, for the record) then we are doomed. I played golf (which some sensible person in the Dept. of Economic Development decided is not a threat to the future of the republic) after working remotely for a while, and the courses were packed. No handshakes, fist bumps, the cups are raised and you hit the cup instead of lifting the pin and taking the ball out of the hole, etc. The only retail things closed are restaurants and hair salons as far as I can tell. Are car washes essential? I suppose their isn't much possibility of spreading the virus--why not? The parking lot of the local cove on the CT River is jammed with cars--HS kids hanging out--what the hell else are they going to do? People are out everywhere and there is lots of apparently social activity going on. My point is not that we don't have to follow sensible precautions or that "lowering the curve" isn't important. Or that those folks like me who see no reason to cower in our homes are bad people. When this turns out to be nowhere near as apocalyptic as the alarmists who have fed this panic say, you will hear them all claim that their numbers didn't happen because we took their advice and shut everything down. I am calling BS in advance to that. If CT turns into the next hotspot I will stand corrected.
Toggle Commented Mar 28, 2020 on Good Intel From Tyler Cowen at JustOneMinute
Ah, Porch--Brady's a Buccaneer now so screw him! Just kidding. GOAT and along with all Pats fans I wish him all the best, and thanks for the great 19-year ride! Not to derail the thread but unlike a whole lot of Pats fans I think Darth Hoodie did the right thing and he let/forced Brady to go--even if he goes 11-5 with the Bucs and the Pats go 7-9 with Jared Stidham. The guy is 43 years old and at risk for Covid-19 ;^),the Pats weren't going to win the Super Bowl even with him as they have lots of issues, and the salary cap hit would have been about 45 mil. All good things must end and it's time to move on. And with that I am off to bed. Good night.
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2020 on Are You Ready For Some Football? at JustOneMinute
Porch--You and I think alike about everything except Tom Brady. You are a genius! (but flawed). My questions are almost always rhetorical. I am scared to death that this thing will throw the country into an economic nightmare. Over the latest version of whatever bad virus is going around. Maybe if Biden gets elected we won't have to go through this until at least 2024, when the next Republican president fails to anticipate and prevent in advance whatever it is that everyone decides to go completely apeshit about. If I thought it would stop the economic disaster the country is inflicting on itself I would vote for the doofus. (Don't worry--broken glass and all that...)
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2020 on Are You Ready For Some Football? at JustOneMinute
Where is the third-world shithole where the scenario of out-of-control infections has occurred or is occurring? Yes, China lies and the situation is probably much worse than the fairy dust they are putting out. And third-world shitholes don't keep very good stats. But if this thing is as virulent as we are supposed to believe, why isn't there a place where it has exploded and is overwhelming the country? (Sure--Italy has lots of infections and deaths but even so it is a tiny percentage compared to flu and they locked down the entire country). If the US is "behind the curve", where besides China has the horrible scenario played out?
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2020 on Are You Ready For Some Football? at JustOneMinute
Also--Based on that TM picture, we are pretty much doomed as a country anyway.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2020 on Fashion Hints at JustOneMinute
The first confirmed CV case in WA was Jan. 21; the guy (from Wuhan) had been in the country for over a week. Nobody quarantined at that time. A bunch of people in a nursing home got very sick and a bunch of them died. They got sick because the people who worked there had the virus, didn't know, and brought it to the nursing home--after going home and spreading it amongst families and friends. That was two months ago. If it were going to run rampant, why didn't that happen in WA? The corona infection and illness has run for two months in Washington, with somewhere less than 1500 people getting it (out of 7.5 million) and 75 deaths. (per the Worldometer site linked above. While other states are catching up and numbers are growing, one would think that WA would be pretty accurate at this point. Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I see no reason why this is not the rough scenario as a model for what will happen across the country--including NYC. If we are still panicking two weeks from now we are doomed as a country.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2020 on Fashion Hints at JustOneMinute
Porch--It is of course very wrong for me to be so cynical about the worst health crisis in the history of civilization, but shouldn't things be a lot worse in California as well? Lots of people in big cities, many of whom have close family ties with...China? It seems to me that the modeling on this thing has a lot in common with the stuff that Michael Mann is so famous for.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Sunday Inaction at JustOneMinute
Let me put a word in for Fish Crows, who are just as much crows as the mighty Raven and the ubiquitous Common Crow. They pinch their noses and say "kwok."
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Sunday Inaction at JustOneMinute
I was supposed to fly to Park City today for 4 days of powdah, but Vail closed all the mountains due to coronavirus. So instead I socially isolated by playing golf by myself (I won!) Driving home I turned the radio to NPR, in the vain hope of finding something--anything--factual in the news. I did hear an NPR piece--nobody does "pieces" like NPR--about the plight of elderly women in Washington State who are having difficulty communicating with their quarantined 93-year old mothers in the Life Care Center nursing home. I was startled to hear that there are 93-year-old residents of the Life Care Center who are still alive. I was even more startled to hear that at least one of the elderly women whose mother was a resident of the Life Care Center decided to bring her mother home because she was worried about her. And she and her mom are apparently still alive. Isn't this thing supposed to be the end of the world and we're all going to die, especially 93-year-old women in the nursing home where the vast majority of the deaths from this we're all going to die epidemic have occurred? (Nothing in the NPR piece about the health of the elderly family members or their families, although they sounded pretty healthy--maybe it was just those super-duper NPR microphones--NPR has the best audio). Anyway my cynical optimistic take is that if this is what NPR is running with, then Washington State is probably going to get through this. As are most of the rest of us.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2020 on Sunday Inaction at JustOneMinute
And if it is not what TomR is positing, isn't a massive campaign of deception orchestrated by the President against the Democrats, the media, and even his own supporters (using the pretense of a special counsel investigation to "exonerate" himself) valid grounds for impeachment? That is one of the many, many problems I have with the 4D argument.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2019 on AG Barr In The WSJ at JustOneMinute