s/b past Couple of days

Porchlight, Missed your post yesterday. Thanksgiving at my sister’s is always a blast and who wants to miss out on fun reading blogs? 3 of 5 siblings were present with assorted nieces and nephews and friends. Total number is a state secret, but I assure you it was below the Gov’s requirement. Sitting at Minneapolis airport now waiting for delayed plane. Belated Happy Thanksgiving wishes to the JOM community. Hope you have had half the fun I had the past could days. Sitting at the

Porch I have no idea where that is. My sister is in Eden Prairie Small world

Porch I never thought seeing family would feel so naughty. Western suburbs for me as well Here’s to a wonderful thanksgiving!

Well Porch you’ll get no argument here. On the other hand I intend to cross several state lines to enjoy thanksgiving with my family in Minneapolis. Our numbers will exceed Gov Walz’s restrictions. If not now, this will probably soon constitute a felony. So I’m choosing how I wish to live my life

There is evidence to support election fraud and there is evidence to support a small benefit to mask use. Whether the evidence for either one rises to the level of proof is another matter. Are you going to accept a 1 in 10 chance of being wrong or a 1 in 20 , a preponderance of evidence or beyond a reasonable doubt. where you draw the line to a large extent determines whether or not something is proven. Even if it was proven, whether the small benefit justifies mandatory mask usage is another argument. One I am not making. But feel free to keep conflating the two. When asked about mask use I usually respond by asking people how do they want to live their lives. Because to me that is really the question. Before I get smoked for this, I believe election fraud occurred, just using it as an example.

Amom The confidence intervals for mask use ranged from a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection in the study. So while it is possible the odds are against it. I don’t see why a fairly small benefit of mask use is so hard swallow.

I’m sorry too OL I start this by posting something in the study I found interesting and seem to have pushed buttons for people. And of course, I’m always up for a fight.

Not sure what I said to get that started OL. Once upon a time the purpose of science was to understand things. This seemed like some reasonable data to look at masks. There was 2000-3000 in each arm if I remember right. If the effect was small probably not enough to reach statistical significance, but nothing to sneeze at either The prevalence rate was stated at 2%. At that level the masks would need to be very effective for the results to be significant or meaningful or whatever you want it to be. It wasn’t, masks are not effective, case closed. Is there anything else that can be gleaned from the study? If the prevalence in the masked group is 1.8% and the rate I the control group is 2.1% that suggests that there may be a 10-15% difference( 2-3 per thousand in real numbers) between the groups. Whether this can be proven or not, it is a data point backed up with 5000-6000 total in the samples. In medicine those are relatively big numbers. This is not something to make policy on but I find it interesting. You may not. It is just some information that might help people make their own choices I’m not saying it is correct, just that it could be. But hey I’m your strawman

I won’t bring over my reply in the last thread. TLDR. :-) I agree the study demonstrated masks are not an effective control measure. I do not believe the study proved masks have no effect on transmission Both these statements can be true A person with a 1 in 20 risk of dying and a person with a 1 in 1000 chance of dying might have different opinions on the threshold of a meaningful effect on transmission I don’t agree with mask mandates, but I also do not believe wearing a mask is unreasonable, except when driving a car alone.

I’m not here to debate what one considers meaningful. If masks provided a 10% benefit is that meaningful? 20%,30%? Where do you draw the line? I also understand that with a big enough sample size one can make anything statistically significant. Conversely the larger the effect the smaller sample size is needed. The prevalence of the disease was 2% in the study . It is going to be hard to make a big improvement on that number so masks would really have to be effective to show a statistically significant result. Obviously masks did not make a big improvement so MASKS ARE NOT AN EFFECTIVE CONTROL MEASURE . The study, in my opinion, did not prove masks have no effect. Both of these statements can be true. In my opinion telling people masks are worthless when in fact there may be a small benefit is heading down the same road as making people wear them. In my practice I try to give people as much information as I can so that they can make up their own minds on what is meaningful I do not agree with mask mandates, but I also believe it is reasonable to wear one. Except when driving a car alone. :-)

Iggy not Ivy. Sorry auto correct

Ivy The numbers came from the study Not enough to be Statistically significant is not necessarily the same as statistically insignificant. Likewise there is some evidence not no evidence. Just not enough to definitely prove it. Which would be consist with a small but not drastic benefit. The study certainly does not support masks as a significant control measure, but does in my opinion does suggest a small, unproven due to the sample sizes, effect.

I looked at the mask study What struck me was that the baseline COVID infection rate for the population was believed to be 2% With masks the infection rate was 1.8% and without it was 2.1% The samples are large enough that these percentages should remain pretty consistent. So probably a small but not drastic benefit to wearing masks.

My $0.02 I mainly come here to lurk and occasionally interact with you all. I get good takes on a variety of issues From time to time most people who post here have crossed the “troll line” So to me the principle of “be careful casting stones “ seems applicable here. I’ve lurked and occasionally posted to varying degrees since 2005. I’ve gone from agreeing with our host a majority, or at least a plurality, of the time to recently wondering if he can see his tonsils, with his head so far up his ass. Still I have never seen an indication of bad intent. But then as I reply to people who ask me how I can stand Trump “I’m not a particularly good or nice person” so YMMV. Cheers

Arizona is looking better. Keep the faith

Michigan has flipped to Biden by about 13 k votes I’m keeping the faith but lord knows it is hard

Call me paranoid, but I think not calling swing states like Florida is part of a plan to keep from calling the election for trump tonight With trump likely to win it will be delay delay delay

The frowns are starting on msm shows

I’m just waiting for Florida, GA, and NC to get called for trump If that happens things are just going to get better from there

Before the returns start coming in tonight, I’d like to thank everyone here at JOM for their unfailing humor and mostly unfailing optimism these past weeks. I include our host, although I hope the brain slug can be surgically removed after the election. What ever happens tonight Godspeed and best wishes to you all. I think it’s going to be epic for Trump!

“The perils of blinkered thinking” No, the perils of being an F’ing idiot.

We are also part of the National popular vote. A gift from Polis and the front range dems. A proposition is on the ballot to invalidate the legislation and restore the electoral college for our state. Fingers crossed I also hope if Biden wins Colorado he loses the popular vote just to see the shocked realization on progs faces. Not that the law is in effect, but what could happen if it was.

Out here in Colorado we just have mail in ballots Republicans are slightly in the lead with number of votes turned in by about 18,000. 781,000 to 753,000. Unaffiliated will decide the race with about 660,000 votes turned in. A late term abortion restriction after 22 weeks I feel was a proxy for Biden and is driving dem and progressive turnout. Both sides have been busy with text messaging both trying to convince and also to GOTV. I would not put Colorado as red but I’m not sure it can be written off as a loss either. I think the “peaceful protests in Denver and Aurora May have a larger impact than expected. At least I hope, we have been overwhelmed by locusts from Blue hell’s.

Clarice just referenced Monty Python’s Black Knight? Just when I thought my opinion of her couldn’t get any higher.