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MCL
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Sorry if this is a bit long. Usually just a lurker. I’ve been looking at the spreadsheet data from Doug Ross at http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2020/11/boom-ny-times-real-time-election-data.html and see something very similar between the Georgia and Pennsylvania data. Doug noted that after a certain point in time, the updates were only for Biden and according to Doug “It looks to me like bundles of around 4,800 votes (in PA, it appears to be bundles of 6,000 votes) were used to slowly overcome any Trump lead. The correlation is uncanny.” I looked at the spreadsheet data in a slightly different way, and looked at the fractional change in Trump’s lead for both states. For Georgia, Trump was leading 52.7% to 47.3% with over 89% of the vote counted, then at 6:34 on 11/4 there was a huge dump (+107K more votes for Biden) that reduced Trump’s lead to 51.4% After that, there was a very interesting pattern over the next 3 days where the updates were lots of updates with a handful of votes followed by a large update. Looking at the updates as a fractional change in the number of Trump’s total votes, the values were either 0 (out to 6 decimal places), or one of the following fractional changes in Trump’s total: -0.001012 (4 times) -0.002024 (1 time) a pair of updates close together early on 11/4 that totaled -0.003037 6 pairs of updates where each pair added up to -0.001012 (example -0.000497 and -0.000515) End result was Trump’s vote fraction went from 51.4% to 49.9%. In Pennsylvania the data was very similar but more extensive. At 16:02 on 11/4 Trump led 54.9% to 45.1% with 82.3% of the vote counted. After that, over the next three days, the updates in terms of the fractional change in Trump’s vote total were either zero (out to 6 decimal places), or one of the following values: -0.001013 +/-.000001 (24 times) -0.002026 (4 times) a pair of updates close together that totaled -0.001013 (16 times) one pair of updates that totaled -0.002026 Together these updates reduced Trump’s lead from 54.9% to 49.65% At one point (11/6, 23:54) Trump’s fraction of the total vote was 49.9% just like in Georgia, but they did a couple of additional updates to make it be a little different. What are the odds that the updates in two different states over 3 days would be nearly identical out to 6 decimal places (fractional change in Trump’s vote total)?
Toggle Commented Nov 22, 2020 on Affidavit From The North Country at JustOneMinute
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Nov 21, 2020