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Unfortunately, it will not help.
Best, Alex
Praying polar bear
But will it help? Hat-tip to Cate.
And Arctic temperature is spiking again. Not good.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Alex
A new Arctic feedback (?)
Quote from the latest PIOMAS update (10 days ago): There's just no end to this run we have had with anomalously warm temperatures, and storms blowing in from the Atlantic. As we speak, a very powerful winter storm is battering the ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, as shown on this S...
Hi Neven,
exactly, I agree with your conclusions. Regarding the ESA meeting, I liked the Jason Box presentation, but most of the others were boring (even those about Arctic etc.), so I just read your articles ;-)
Best,
Alex
ASI 2016 update 1: both sides
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Hello Neven,
great summary, as always! What aboout "blue ocean" event? I can only quote Peter Wadhams, who told me few weeks ago at the ESA Living Planet Symposium in Prague:
"It could happen this year."
Best,
Alex
ASI 2016 update 1: both sides
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
David,
but extent is different (definition) from area. Neven is not claiming, we have hit lowest extent. So the claim is OK I think...
Alex
Global sea ice area record minimum
Okay, we can remove the question mark of the earlier blog post concerning Cryosphere Today Global SIA, as the record was broken yesterday: And here's how it looks on the graph from the Pogoda i Klimat website: It's not easy to see, but 2016 has dipped below the 2006 record minimum of 14.391 k...
Just an easy number to remember:
World lost 80 km2 of sea ice/day since 1979.
Best,
Alex
Global sea ice area record minimum
Okay, we can remove the question mark of the earlier blog post concerning Cryosphere Today Global SIA, as the record was broken yesterday: And here's how it looks on the graph from the Pogoda i Klimat website: It's not easy to see, but 2016 has dipped below the 2006 record minimum of 14.391 k...
For those interested in own interpretation/graphs, GSIA data can be downloaded here:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.global.anom.1979-2008
I have also put a graph on my blog in Slovak (showing the fraud of fake Steven Goddard):
http://ac.blog.sme.sk/c/401675/svet-ma-rekordne-malo-morskeho-ladu.html
best,
Alex
Global sea ice area record minimum
Okay, we can remove the question mark of the earlier blog post concerning Cryosphere Today Global SIA, as the record was broken yesterday: And here's how it looks on the graph from the Pogoda i Klimat website: It's not easy to see, but 2016 has dipped below the 2006 record minimum of 14.391 k...
hi John,
not sure which YT video you watched, but the link I indicated should lead you to a sequence of graphics showing disappearance of the Antarctica based on a paper by Winkelmann et al. 2015. For a popular summary see e.g. here:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/if-we-burn-all-the-worlds-fossil-fuels-wed-melt-antarctica-flood-the-earth
Thats just tu put GSIA potential record into long term context :-)
best,
Alex
Global sea ice area record minimum?
This post is about global sea ice area, the simple addition of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area. As a statistic it's somewhat interesting, but it doesn't convey all that much information about the individual health of both polar regions, let alone their sub-regions. Despite this fact, or proba...
Hi Neven,
record of GSIA or not,
if we burn everything, we will melt everything:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr5Im6tuAY8
best,
Alex
Global sea ice area record minimum?
This post is about global sea ice area, the simple addition of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area. As a statistic it's somewhat interesting, but it doesn't convey all that much information about the individual health of both polar regions, let alone their sub-regions. Despite this fact, or proba...
Neven,
if you meet Brad Werner, send him a greetings ;-)
AGU Scientist Asks, ‘Is Earth F**ked?’
Alex
EGU 2015, my first scientific conference
I've been living in Austria for 5 years now, living a mere 2 hour drive from Vienna, but somehow I've never come around to visiting the European Geophysical Union's annual general assembly. This year I've decided to make that drive to the Austria Center Vienna and attend EGU 2015, a decision m...
Neven, and here is the full link for the paper:
http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/reprints/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf
Alex
Decreasing Arctic albedo boosts global warming
A new paper in PNAS, called Observational determination of albedo caused by vanishing sea ice, reminds me of scientific work Peter Wadhams published a year and a half ago wherein he showed Arctic ice melt is 'like adding 20 years of CO2 emissions'. He based this assertion on calculations, as ca...
Hi Folks,
here are couple of graphs regarding the PNAS paper:
http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/STM/2013-10/18_CEREStalk_20131030_kpistone.pdf
Alex
Decreasing Arctic albedo boosts global warming
A new paper in PNAS, called Observational determination of albedo caused by vanishing sea ice, reminds me of scientific work Peter Wadhams published a year and a half ago wherein he showed Arctic ice melt is 'like adding 20 years of CO2 emissions'. He based this assertion on calculations, as ca...
Yes, Albert Bartlett was a good guy.
But as most economists will explain you today, we have to restart the growth, otherwise we face a lot of problems.
Actually they are right, but forgetting that a) restarting meaningful growth is impossible, and b) it was growth of the past that got us into this mess...
Alex
In memoriam: Albert A. Bartlett
This is only indirectly linked to Arctic sea ice, and something I found out today, but a little over two months ago emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Albert Allen Bartlett, passed away at the age of 90. Bartlett was famous for the following quote: "The gre...
My early tip is that Arctic will surprise us the next year as well! :-)
Alex
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (August report)
In mid-July through early August, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 66 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 66 predictions is 3.6 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50%) from 2.92 t...
3.9
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
As there any ecosystem we did NOT fuck-up? :-/
Invasion Of The Lionfish
Humans fuck up ecosystems in a variety of ways. Introducing new, "invasive" species into ecosystems in which they do not belong is a common example of our shameless interference with nature. One of the worst examples in recent memory is getting more attention. Let's start with the brief UPI scie...
I stick with 3.8 mil sq km, just as before!
Alex
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
The last sentence is the best!
Yamal to the rescue
A couple of weeks ago it was decided that Russian research station NP-40 (or SP-40 in Russian) would need to be evacuated, because the ice floe it was sitting on was breaking into pieces. There hasn't been any news since then, but apparently the evacuation started last weekend, as the German N-T...
Neven,
thanks for posting this. But only 50 million people? It is less than 1% of global population, so it is statistically insignifican number.
500 million is a better number, but probably not enough anyway.
Dear Lawrence - but it make difference, if you asked people about major *negative* effects? And what about the peoples *willingness* to change (destructive) behaviour in order to avoid negative consequences of Arctic warming?
But maybe it is too late to ask people :-)
Alex
50 million views is common for favourite songs, but even then most of population is unaware of them.
Climate, Ice and Weather Whiplash
Here's yet another new and great video by Peter Sinclair from the ClimateCrocks blog for the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media: It bears repeating... This video should get at least 50 million views. I think it will one day.
Apocalypse,
yes, and canadian government also doubled the amount of money for tar sands:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/16/canadian-government-doubles-advertising-spend-tar-sands
k eotw,
I dont think so - climate deniers are too crazy...
Alex
When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer
You won't see it in any travel guides, probably because of its name, but Lake El'gygytgyn offers many wonders. Lately it's been in the news because of fascinating paleoclimatic data the lake has yielded to researchers drilling its bottom. They managed to extend the climatic chronology of northern...
OT, but related to "global warming stopped" propaganda. William Happer wants 1000 ppm CO2, good for plants...:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/5/17/happer-on-cnbc.html
Alex
When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer
You won't see it in any travel guides, probably because of its name, but Lake El'gygytgyn offers many wonders. Lately it's been in the news because of fascinating paleoclimatic data the lake has yielded to researchers drilling its bottom. They managed to extend the climatic chronology of northern...
SATire,
hopefully you are right - nobody was around in Pliocene or Pelistocene. But we also know that sea level was 20m (+/-5m) higher than today, so NO ice in the Arctic (and much less in Greenland or Antarctica).
The thing is the researchers expected higher temperatures, but not THAT high tempratures. And climate models have prolems explaining such conditions. That's why that talk of (probably) higher climate sensitivity.
The paper was also no "attribution" study.
When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer
You won't see it in any travel guides, probably because of its name, but Lake El'gygytgyn offers many wonders. Lately it's been in the news because of fascinating paleoclimatic data the lake has yielded to researchers drilling its bottom. They managed to extend the climatic chronology of northern...
Hi Steve,
yes, I produced those graphs provided by data from the paleo-reconstructions, NOAA instrumental Arctic temperatures, and 8°C as revealed by lake E sediments.
Of course, that 8°C is just graphical representation of the rise - the year 2100 was chosen arbitrarily (the rate of change is around 0.08°C/year (almost 2x faster than current 0.04-5C°/year). You may argue it's over-estimate or under-estimate for the whole Arctic region, thus the red line added by me is definitely not accurate - which I hope most readers here realize. There is not even any uncertainity in the projection.
This is just to show that Arctic temperatures are probably far from equilibrium with current CO2, not to mention further rise.
I hope that explanation helps a little,
Alex
When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer
You won't see it in any travel guides, probably because of its name, but Lake El'gygytgyn offers many wonders. Lately it's been in the news because of fascinating paleoclimatic data the lake has yielded to researchers drilling its bottom. They managed to extend the climatic chronology of northern...
Craig,
we can adapt without much consequence on ourselves and the planet -- I am afraid, this is already not happening,
Alex
When the Arctic was 8 °C warmer
You won't see it in any travel guides, probably because of its name, but Lake El'gygytgyn offers many wonders. Lately it's been in the news because of fascinating paleoclimatic data the lake has yielded to researchers drilling its bottom. They managed to extend the climatic chronology of northern...
Greenland Today shows surface melting is below average, actually it did not start yet. My bet is record from 2012 will hold for at least 1 year :-)
Alex
Greenland “snow drought” spells trouble
Hat-tip to HeisenIceBerg over on the Forum. I think most of us vividly remember last year's events on and around Greenland. It started with albedo going down considerably, causing widespread melt - at one point involving practically all of the ice sheet's surface - ending in a record mass loss...
More...
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