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Gabriel Aguilera
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Also, Viejo, I posted this elsewhere. Discipline, I think, will be a challenge for MORENA. "Morena has immense power now and won it fairly. But will it wield it well? I agree with my friend Alex Poire. that this will depend on discipline, its ability to compromise within its own house, as well as without with other parties, powerful economic oligarchs (foreign as well as domestic), the bureaucracy, the military, and the US. AMLO is a creature of the old PRI, whose discipline was marshal in scope and pretty ironclad. Ironically, the lack of within-party democracy was cancerous for the PRI as it was for AD and COPEI in Venezuela in the old days. Is MORENA too inchoate to exercise enough discipline? Will the new electoral rules weaken things? I ask because I have no idea. I wonder if MORENA has any idea.
I think it is hard to exaggerate the importance for democracy that the left show that it too can govern tolerably competently. The PAN, warts and all, has shown this I believe. The PRI failed and has been flayed nearly to death. I agree that is a gran cucaracha. The PAN should cooperate MORENO where it can for the public good while at the same time attacking relentlessly corruption, demagoguery, and incompetence for there will be plenty. Opposition at all costs, like the PRI did to Calderon, is no good. The PAN should shed the neoliberal crapola and emphasize something of a center-right christian-dem public goods platform. I think medium prospects for the PAN are quite good. The PRI, I think, is much too gutted to ever be the force it once was.
With reference to Trump himself, I infer from the excellent reporting out there and his own words that it is mostly a combination of 1 and 3. He fancies himself a strategist and brilliant negotiator on behalf of America and he possesses something of a neo-mercantalist realist world view. Yet he does not seem to understand the the basics of presidency (Congress and Courts will push back) or the instruments of power at his disposal. He and his goons are a menace to America and the world.
Few things made me happier than watching the boy run from aircraft to aircraft that afternoon.
Compa, I just did a border tour in El Paso. The detention center was empty. Imagine that? I think you're spot on in this piece. However, the costs of crossing the border are certainly higher these days. Simply put, the gringos are putting more resources -- legal and material -- into controlling the border, which raises the costs. A low-paying job, in other words, might be relatively better than the risk of crossing cartel-controlled territory...
Let's remember, too, that Cuba is also pretty good at keeping these bad guys out. The reference to Deb Yahsar above is helpful (Thanks "Ann on a moose"). Whatever problems the Nicaraguan government has, it is pretty serious about about cracking down on the drug guys. There actually is a fair amount of drug activity in the eastern jungles, among the indigenous folks who don't care much for the regime. My understanding, too, is that there is lots of mil to mil cooperation between the US and Nicaragua. In other words, the US shares information to Nicaragua and they act on it on quick on their rickety ships. Nicaragua, and Cuba, clearly are determined to keep a lid on narco influence within their borders. They are able too, moreover, better than their neighbors. Perhaps this is so because they have built better police and military institutions thanks to sustained external threats (U.S. and Contras).
Toggle Commented Sep 23, 2011 on The Nicaraguan exception? at The Power and the Money
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May 1, 2011