This is aje's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following aje's activity
aje
Recent Activity
With regard to the comparative point that Steve makes - I wrote a relatively friendly review of Sumner's NGDP targeting proposal (should be online soon, if anyone wants a copy now email me), not because I think it is better than "doing nothing", but because I think it might well be better than "CPI targeting".
I'm constantly surprised at how quickly people want to take the theoretical claim that under a desired monetary regime we might expect the banking system to maintain MV stability, to make an inference/accusation that this is a defense of present central bank attempts to do so. Let's all be clear that Hayek's argument should always be viewed as a critique of central banking.
And lets give greater attention to the differences between policy debates and regime debates.
But even if we agree that farm subsidies should be repealed, it doesn't mean we can't make an informed judgment about whether subsidised prices are likely to be above or below their free market ones, and try to nudge policy in that direction.
Given that central banks exist, we can either focus efforts on campaigning for their abolition, or try to push them in the direction of least harm. This is merely a question of whether we're willing to make second-best policy prescriptions (and thus engage with the current policy debate).
No one is arguing that we *know* what these prescriptions should be, but provided we feel comfortable labeling certain policies "bad" (of which there is no shortage), we can in large part focus on *un*doing things.
Personally I think a "Hayek Rule" would be a marginal improvement compared to the status quo, and that's an intellectual argument that is worth making. It doesn't mean I support the institutions through which a Hayek Rule would be made, nor the knowledge assumptions required to think it would be perfect.
Hayek on Deflation
Steven Horwitz Given ongoing debates, I thought this passage from Hayek's "The Campaign Against Keynesian Inflation" (pp. 210-1 in New Studies, written in the mid-70s, my emphasis) might be of interest: Such a "secondary depression" caused by an induced deflation should of course be prevented by...
I also would like to hear from former graduates of our program if their experience after their second year conformed with what Mankiw suggests it should --- that is an experience which treats graduate students as the most junior faculty, rather than the most senior students.
Agree 100%
Pretty much across the board faculty treated us as future producers of economic ideas, rather than consumers.
Greg Mankiw on the Structure of Graduate Education in Economics
|Peter Boettke| Two facts --- students are taking longer to get their PhDs in economics, and students are dropping out of PhD programs before finishing. Faced with these facts, Greg Mankiw reflects on the structure of graduate education and the role that MA programs can in fact play in improvin...
For now a break - I will probably start up again at some point, but not necessarily here. I've not decided yet, but wanted to emphasise the "golden era" of Filter^ blogging circa 2005-2006 whilst I decide!
I might wait for the next thing after twitter, and then jump onto that.
The Filter^ is going on hiatus
What better way to mark the 7th anniversary of The Filter^ than by switching it off? Over half a million pageviews suggests that we've done something right - since January 2004 we've published well over 2,000 posts and attracted more than 3,000 comments. We've cultiv...
Great post Steve
What Austrian Economics IS and What Austrian Economics Is NOT
Steven Horwitz Since the start of the financial crisis and recession, there has been a renewed interest in the ideas of Austrian economics by scholars, public intellectuals, and even the media. For the first time in a long time, the analytical framework of Austrian economics is being taken note...
Thanks, I was referring more to the UK. I'm glad that you've referenced Higgs in both points. I hope that one of the few things mainstream economists take from the crisis is the role of regime uncertainty.
A couple of thoughts
"Saying that low bond yields reflect market confidence is like the captain of the Titanic boasting that high demand for lifeboats reflects satisfaction with the overall liner" Discuss "Arguing that QE1 had no impact on the economy is like putting up an umbrella before it starts to rain, and the...
Correct - but not even inactivity, it automatically requests that your renew your password on a routine basis.
Having said that, I've remembered it on the last few occasions. I have a memorable word followed by a digit that increases whenever I need to reset it. I'm now on "2", and am evidently able to remember this.
Lloyds TSB | Click safe
After a traumatic evening involving an emergency run to the vets, it turns 9pm and there's nothing in the fridge. Given that I've ordered from Dominos before, I assume my details are all saved and it'll be quick and easy to get a delivery. No such luck. At the critical point, just when I think i...
I wouldn't take it too far, and argue that Austrians have nothing to say about the downturn, but note that Horwitz relies a lot upon alternative approaches. That doesn't mean he doesn't provide an Austrian account, but that this then turns into a debate about Austrian uniqueness.
Quote of the day: Mario Rizzo
The Austrian theory, however, is not a complete theory of the business cycle. It accounts mainly for the process leading to and including the cycle’s upper turning point. It is a theory of the crisis. How long the resulting recession lasts is not predicted by the theory or even, strictly speakin...
Thanks for the comment Pietro. Whilst I obviously don't agree with Sumner's position, I do think it is worthwhile to engage in the constructive debate about why this is the case.
But I'm not sure he'd deny that there a real problems, it's mainly an argument about whether they're an inevitable consequence of the prior inflation or whether they're the result of policy failure. The correct answer to this is surely "both", in which case there's a very important debate about magnitude. And although, as we can see, base money does not always correspond to the total amount of credit available, would you argue that it's irrelevant?
All Austrians should be reading, and responding to, Scott Sumner
Just because Scott Sumner's read a bit of Hayek, does not mean that those who read his work carefully will cross over to the dark side of monetarism... Indeed he is exactly the sort of thinker Austrian's should embrace - he is knowledgable about other schools of thought (or at least is honest ab...
great photo! although it's crying out as a caption contest
here's my effort:
http://thefilter.blogs.com/thefilter/2010/09/caption-contest-ostrom-and-buchanan.html
The Calculus of Consent and the Transformation of Political Science
|Peter Boettke|
Sorry, not sure why this isn't appearing in line, but @Austrian Economist:
There's more to Austrian economics than the Mises Institute. If you were an "Austrian economist" - or even a half decent academic - you'd know that. Try these: http://econ.anthonyjevans.com/2010/07/contemporary-pathways-in-austrian-macroeconomics/
Dr Eamonn Butler: Austrian Economics is back
Dr Eamonn Butler is director of the Adam Smith Institute and author of the new book Austrian Economics – A Primer, which is available for purchase from today via the ASI Online Shop. Modern economists had consigned them to history, but with the recent crisis of capitalism, they’re suddenly b...
There's more to Austrian economics than the Mises Institute. If you were an "Austrian economist" - or even a half decent academic - you'd know that. Try these: http://econ.anthonyjevans.com/2010/07/contemporary-pathways-in-austrian-macroeconomics/
Dr Eamonn Butler: Austrian Economics is back
Dr Eamonn Butler is director of the Adam Smith Institute and author of the new book Austrian Economics – A Primer, which is available for purchase from today via the ASI Online Shop. Modern economists had consigned them to history, but with the recent crisis of capitalism, they’re suddenly b...
There is some wonderful stuff on the Mises Institute, but note that we're talking about economics here not libertarian political philosophy.
Your list confirms that you're not up to speed with the contemporary literature in Austrian economics - again, if you're an academic passing himself off as an Austrian economist you are being misleading.
But then presumably this material is samizdat at your place of work, and we should just be grateful that you're able to get to Conservative Home without being sent to a gulag!
Dr Eamonn Butler: Austrian Economics is back
Dr Eamonn Butler is director of the Adam Smith Institute and author of the new book Austrian Economics – A Primer, which is available for purchase from today via the ASI Online Shop. Modern economists had consigned them to history, but with the recent crisis of capitalism, they’re suddenly b...
@ Will J
I think most Austrians would fit somewhere in between. It's possible to take monetary policy out of the hands of the state without necessarily leading to full reserve banking. I recommend Larry White's "Free Banking in Britain", published by the IEA. [http://www.iea.org.uk/record.jsp?ID=115&type=book]
Dr Eamonn Butler: Austrian Economics is back
Dr Eamonn Butler is director of the Adam Smith Institute and author of the new book Austrian Economics – A Primer, which is available for purchase from today via the ASI Online Shop. Modern economists had consigned them to history, but with the recent crisis of capitalism, they’re suddenly b...
@ Nick Fraser
I'd suggest you read the Austrian accounts of the Great Depression - I recommend Larry White's recent article [http://economics.sbs.ohio-state.edu/jmcb/jmcb/07056/07056.pdf] in particular.
Dr Eamonn Butler: Austrian Economics is back
Dr Eamonn Butler is director of the Adam Smith Institute and author of the new book Austrian Economics – A Primer, which is available for purchase from today via the ASI Online Shop. Modern economists had consigned them to history, but with the recent crisis of capitalism, they’re suddenly b...
@ Austrian economist
You seem to associate Austrian economics purely with think tanks and blogs. If you are indeed an academic I'd suggest you familiarise yourself with the literature. Or at least chose a more accurate pseudonym - you may be a supporter but you're clearly not an "Austrian economist".
Dr Eamonn Butler: Austrian Economics is back
Dr Eamonn Butler is director of the Adam Smith Institute and author of the new book Austrian Economics – A Primer, which is available for purchase from today via the ASI Online Shop. Modern economists had consigned them to history, but with the recent crisis of capitalism, they’re suddenly b...
Brilliant last line Steve! Looking forward to the response...
New Freeman Online Column and NBR Post
Steven Horwitz My Freeman Online column this week is about "constitutional consistency." The opener: No one ever accused progressives and conservatives of being overly consistent about freedom. After all, we classical liberals frequently say we want the State out of both the bedroom and the boa...
I've added a bit to that other post to try to explain myself a bit better, but in the main I agree with what you're saying.
Naive Keynesianism
What a wonderful quote from Barack Obama: "when this recession began, many families sat around their kitchen table and tried to figure out where they could cut back. That is a completely responsible and understandable reaction. But if every family ... cuts back, then no one is spending any money...
Thanks Jim, here's a partial answer to your questions.
I think I've been pretty clear over the last few years that I do not favour fiscal stimuli and that I think we should shift the debate away from monetary policy and towards monetary regimes. I also think it's pretty clear that I favour free markets generally, and see no reason why this shouldn't also apply to banking.
Naive Keynesianism
What a wonderful quote from Barack Obama: "when this recession began, many families sat around their kitchen table and tried to figure out where they could cut back. That is a completely responsible and understandable reaction. But if every family ... cuts back, then no one is spending any money...
Is Jeff really saying that moral hazard arguments are irrelevant?
My point would be that it *doesn't matter* whether the bankers had an incentive to run a stress test, unless we have some evidence to suggest that the stress tests they would have run would have been informative. There were plenty of incentives about for people to have correctly anticipated the financial crisis - the fact that they didn't suggests it was primarily a problem of knowledge, not incentives.
http://thefilter.blogs.com/thefilter/2010/02/a-crisis-of-incentives-or-a-crisis-of-ignorance.html
More Realistic Understanding of Capitalism
|Peter Boettke| Jeff Friedman and Wladimir Kraus have a paper at AEI posted arguing that de-regulation did not cause the financial crisis, and in fact that it was certain regulations that are to blame. I have been informed by Friedman, that he and Kraus have a forthcoming book from U of Penn Pr...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574443600711779692.html#
In the press - the increasing relevence of ABC
"I am surprised that your list of hypotheses on the causes of speculative booms did not include the theory of the business cycle first described by Ludwig von Mises and later elaborated by Friedrich von Hayek. According to this theory it is the artificial lowering of interest rates and creation...
It's all done through the credit card, although thinking about it I don't think I use a title on that, so the whole thing is probably a figment of my imagination.
I can't remember Tyler's reasoning, but i'm broadly sympathetic. I used to book airline tickets with it because I thought it might increase the chance of an upgrade, but then my Dad told me that it just makes it more likely I'll get woken up if there's a medical emergency.
The Filter^ REVIEW: Speaking in Tongues
You know you've made it as a theatre critic when you walk through the doors and are met by an usher who says "Dr & Mrs Evans, we have upgraded your seats to the Royal Circle". Then, alas, the combination of a half-empty theatre and credit card technology makes you realise that your £10 a pop "res...
Maybe i'm focusing too much on UK investors, but I can imagine scenarios where pessimism moves people from corporate bonds to gilts without pushing them to invest abroad (since this would bring about new transaction costs). But yes, I take your point.
on gilts, again
Chris Dillow has another article challenging George Osborne's view that the markets are concerned by UK government debt. As I said previously, The popularity of gilts is not a vote of confidence, any more than the captain of the Titantic could boast that passengers where using *his* lifeboats an...
Perhaps i'm viewing this too homogenously, but what other government bonds (other than gilts) would you expect investors to move to if they are pessimistic about public finances?
on gilts, again
Chris Dillow has another article challenging George Osborne's view that the markets are concerned by UK government debt. As I said previously, The popularity of gilts is not a vote of confidence, any more than the captain of the Titantic could boast that passengers where using *his* lifeboats an...
Jim - Wow. Am I supposed to stop blogging now?(!)
Debating QE with Stephanie Flanders
Here's a link to the debate: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p004ccwm (@ 14mins 40secs). As ever any resemblance of legibility stems from good editing rather than the raw materials, but as promised I'll share some notes. I was very impressed with Stephanie Flanders. She's one of the few mains...
Policymakers - if there's no rationale for understanding the likely effects of a policy then what's to say it won't cause more harm than good?
Debating QE with Stephanie Flanders
Here's a link to the debate: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p004ccwm (@ 14mins 40secs). As ever any resemblance of legibility stems from good editing rather than the raw materials, but as promised I'll share some notes. I was very impressed with Stephanie Flanders. She's one of the few mains...
Subscribe to aje’s Recent Activity