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Interests: Climate
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Speaking of ice thickness, the US Navy is deploying new Arctic Ocean buoys with the assistance of the Danish Air Force. See:
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
I explored the relationship between El Nino and global CO2 increases and global CO2 concentration acceleration a couple of months ago. There is - and there is not - a relationship between the two. Here is the link: This is being updated with the March global CO2 and should be posted in a couple of days.
Toggle Commented Mar 8, 2017 on PIOMAS March 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim, The updated PIOMAS imagery and data are very appreciated.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2017 on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Aksel, Remember this preliminary ppm growth estimate is only for Mauna Loa (MLO) and not the global CO2 ppm growth rate. I wrote a piece on the global growth rate a couple of months ago. See: The last section of the post estimates a global CO2 growth rate between 3.49 to 3.63 ppm for 2016, depending on methodology. A4R
Toggle Commented Feb 9, 2017 on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, This site and your blogging has made a profound difference in my perspective and engagement in Arctic and global climate issues. The contributions and comments by many whom I appreciate for sharing learning and expereince on this page and the Forum encouraged me to fight for, and receive, permission to teach a course on climate issues (including a healthy dose of all things Arctic) this semester at a college that has not engaged in climate science. All the best with the well deserved sabbatical and with your family life. What has started on the ASIB will continue, too much is at stake not to. A4R
Toggle Commented Nov 21, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
A review of the IR imagery reveals the much of the Arctic sea ice in the Beaufort or Chukchi has been fractured or rubble all winter. The ESAS and Laptev have had similar conditions. I have been calling the Beaufort Gyre, the "Beaufort Blender" this season, given its continual refracturing. Areas south of Banks Island never froze solid this winter, south of Baffin Island has been "rubble." North of Svalbard fracturing has run close to 90 N many times. The Arctic Ocean fracturing has often sent plumes of warmer air over the ice till refreeze, which is an indicator of the warmer sea temps under the ice.
Toggle Commented Mar 4, 2015 on Shock news! at Arctic Sea Ice
The AVHRR IR imagery has also been showing the Nares breakup and reforming through the winter. Not as good as Sentinel, but places the changes in a broader Arctic context.
Toggle Commented Feb 18, 2015 on Erase and rewind at Arctic Sea Ice
Peter Wadhams' presentation at Arctic Circle Assembly - he projects an Arctic ice free month in 2020. Wipneus' statistcs may be on track. See:
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
D/George, Beaufort Sea ice may appear thicker, however it is highly fractured, which may facilitate warming and melt later in the summer, depending on the weather. The fracturing pattern after the last few days makes much of it appear like a giant smoothie.
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2014 on PIOMAS April 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Off topic: MLO CO2 daily reading above 401 ppm on March 12 - two months earlier than last year. METOP IASI CH4 above 1800 ppb on March 12 - two weeks earlier than last year. See:
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2014 on PIOMAS March 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Apologies Neven, but this needs inserted here to address Bob's question. I'd suggest a read of the National Academy of Sciences: Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis Here is a hint: Recommendation 6.3: The intelligence community should establish a system of periodic “stress testing” for countries, regions, and critical global systems regarding their ability to manage potentially disruptive climate events of concern. Stress tests would focus on potentially disruptive conjunctions of climate events and socioeconomic and political conditions.
In previous posts it was noted that El Nino will have an impact on warming, and I'd add - likely of CO2 buildup. METOP IASI globally measured CO2 hit 398 ppm at 945 mb on March 3, 2014, which is 3 ppm above last year on the same date. A lot of areas above 410 ppm. See:
Jennifer Francis presented a paper at the AAAS in Chicago on Arctic warming and Rossby Waves. I have commented, plus added in another study of the current jet stream patterns. See:
Toggle Commented Feb 16, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I decided to blog on this point in the season, for sea ice area and extent. The warmth looks set to continue for a couple of weeks. I added in some sea ice thickness comparison's as well. I am beginning to think that if the warmth of the last couple of years returns to the Beaufort, we will see major melting of the newer multi-year sea ice. See:
There is more weather weirdness coming for the US Northwest. We have a "Pineapple Express" setting up that will dump rain, snow and wind across the Northwest US for the next 10 days. I've blogged on it here:
Toggle Commented Feb 13, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
You all are welcome, my curiosity got me going, and I posted what I discovered. in regard to the comments on the polar vortex and jet stream, it is mangled at lower altitudes, from 250 mb lower. Above that it has been stronger. See my post:
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
The UK MET has issued comments and a report on the UK weather extremes. It includes a clear link between the jet streams, Rossby waves and the unusual Polar vortex. See:
There is an update on the Feb 8 2014 UK storm on the blog, noting winds, jet stream, sea swell, and temps. See:
idunno, Impressive modeling and the GFS models of Siberian air mass movement into the CAA reflect these steering currents.
We are seeing the Arctic sea ice fracturing patterns redevelop that we saw last year. They may be a further contributor to the mercury or CH4 release.
Toggle Commented Feb 6, 2014 on Bromine, chlorine and mercury at Arctic Sea Ice
More weird extremes on the way this week. According to the GFS models, we should expect a major Siberian Express across the CAB and into North America, triggering precipitation in Northern CA, and also a major storm on the US east coast next weekend. The link is:
Werther, Thanks for the updated global temp graphic. Langford, Thanks for the CCI Re-analyzer link - what a great resource from the U of Maine. A4R
Toggle Commented Jan 29, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I decided that we needed a comparison of the temp anomalies for a couple of dates (January 27 and January 25),from prior years to give some perspective. See:
Toggle Commented Jan 28, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Seems the US White House is getting in on explaining how the cold wave relates to climate change/warming:
Hi Colorado Bob, Those readings are there, however, the reading that Sam uses to locate sources are 7,500-9,200 ft ASL and may reflect smoke, soot and refreezing. If one was interested in surface discharge of methane hydrates - that would be at the 1000-918 mb or sea level to about 2,700 ASL. When one uses methanetracker for those periods (10-28 to 10-31, the areas above 1950 ppb are more clustered around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Islands, and Novaya Zemlya - not the Laptev Sea.