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Louise Bagshawe
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Can I point out that the Lab-Con marginals poll would have been taken before yesterday's events?
Which makes it seriously out of date.
Two polls from the Con-Lab marginals and Lib Dem targets
I have thought for some time that national opinion polls are not going to be as useful at they once were in predicting the final election outcome. Apart from individual circumstances and personalities in individual seats, you have to deal with tactical voting, more fringe candidates than ever co...
Wow! Fantastic stuff from the fearless Ben Gummer and his team. About time somebody called Labour on their Sure Start lies. I spend a lot of time on the doorstep reassuring pensioners after Labour scare tactics. Well done indeed.
Conservative candidate Ben Gummer confronts Harriet Harman over Labour lies outside an Ipswich Sure Start Centre
Saturday update: You can now hear for yourself the arrogant and outrageous way that Harriet Harman continued to peddle scare stories about the Tories scrapping the winter fuel allowance and Sure Start Centres, when challenged by Ben Gummer on Thursday. Cick here to listen to the local radi...
Iain Dale would make a very fine peer. He is a seasoned media pro, an exemplar of the new party, former chief of staff to David Davis. He's a fine man and a good friend. In the American phrase, he's "good people". In the achievement stakes, he has been a key Tory influencer for some time, is an innovate and important political publisher, and is connected across the party and the press. A very good suggestion.
Search for 100 Peers: Iain Dale
Here is the latest nomination in our series highlighting people David Cameron should consider appointing to the House of Lords, since any Conservative administration formed after the general election would be able to call upon the support of the lowest number of Conservative peers in history. If...
"The Dave Inci Code" that's brilliant. Might have to nick that for a future blog :)
Telegraph Blogs gets it wrong
In his mystic post on Telegraph Blogs alleging that "CCHQ are too scared" to allow their candidates to blog, Damian Thompson is referring to me. whilst I am gratified both at being described as "well-known" (read: uses Twitter) and an "ultra-Cameroon" (read: is not Gerald Warner), it is slight...
Absolutely loads have fought much harder than me, Tony, but thanks for the compliment anyway. We all do the best we can, and we are all counting the hours until Tuesday and Brown's squeals of pain as he is dragged kicking and screaming down the Mall to the Palace....
Telegraph Blogs gets it wrong
In his mystic post on Telegraph Blogs alleging that "CCHQ are too scared" to allow their candidates to blog, Damian Thompson is referring to me. whilst I am gratified both at being described as "well-known" (read: uses Twitter) and an "ultra-Cameroon" (read: is not Gerald Warner), it is slight...
Am I to flatter myself that I have also been on your mind, Mr. Warner? :)
Telegraph Blogs gets it wrong
In his mystic post on Telegraph Blogs alleging that "CCHQ are too scared" to allow their candidates to blog, Damian Thompson is referring to me. whilst I am gratified both at being described as "well-known" (read: uses Twitter) and an "ultra-Cameroon" (read: is not Gerald Warner), it is slight...
I certainly am. I will vote to repeal the Hunting Act on a free vote.
Telegraph Blogs gets it wrong
In his mystic post on Telegraph Blogs alleging that "CCHQ are too scared" to allow their candidates to blog, Damian Thompson is referring to me. whilst I am gratified both at being described as "well-known" (read: uses Twitter) and an "ultra-Cameroon" (read: is not Gerald Warner), it is slight...
And a happy Easter to you Damian :) thank you for the good-natured response! Much appreciated.
Telegraph Blogs gets it wrong
In his mystic post on Telegraph Blogs alleging that "CCHQ are too scared" to allow their candidates to blog, Damian Thompson is referring to me. whilst I am gratified both at being described as "well-known" (read: uses Twitter) and an "ultra-Cameroon" (read: is not Gerald Warner), it is slight...
This is so great. Inspiring stuff. Well done Annesley!
Annesley Abercorn launches a campaign video for his bid to regain Hazel Grove from the Lib Dems
Annesley Abercorn, chairman of the Bow Group and Conservative candidate for Hazel Grove in Greater Manchester, has today released a campaign video summing up why he would make a better MP for the seat than the incumbent Liberal Democrat. Watch it below and look out for endorsements from David Cam...
that should be "in advance of a general election" - sorry.
YouGov marginals poll for Channel 4 suggests Tories on course to win 95 Labour seats
More at Channel 4. Although the lead in these Labour marginals is down from previous Channel 4 surveys the Tories are still at 39%, up from 33% in these seats in 2005 and Labour are down from 44% to 37% over the same period. I'll be on Channel 4 News tonight at about 7.15pm discussing the resu...
I have to say, that YouGov's recently and inexplicably changed weightings, which Peter Kellner refused to address on his appearance on politicalbetting.com - especially in that they weight Labour loyal up to 26% when other pollsters weight them down to 21% - are somewhat suspect. I infer no lack of integrity but I do infer a lack of accuracy. This poll, although encouraging for the Tories, in my opinion greatly underplays the advantage in the marginal seats. I gather that our own consituency counts as an "ultra-marginal" and so would not have been included - this poll covers the tougher marginals only - but nonetheless this does not jibe with what I hear from PPC colleagues. At all.
With its old weightings system, YouGov consistently showed itself to be one of the most reliable pollsters around - look at their results for the London Mayoral election. It baffles me as to why, when a weightings system is working vs actual results in local and by-elections, you would change it to favour Labour and prop up their floor in advance of a local election. If it isn't broke - and YG's results said it wasn't - why fix it?
YouGov marginals poll for Channel 4 suggests Tories on course to win 95 Labour seats
More at Channel 4. Although the lead in these Labour marginals is down from previous Channel 4 surveys the Tories are still at 39%, up from 33% in these seats in 2005 and Labour are down from 44% to 37% over the same period. I'll be on Channel 4 News tonight at about 7.15pm discussing the resu...
No, I was not. I joined the party - because I thought we were going into the Euro, because i believed the lies about sticking to Tory tax levels, and because (erroneously) I thought Blair was a Tory. But I never so much as attended a meeting or delivered a single leaflet. Rather, I was fed up - and I think you should understand that demonising people because they once supported Labour is pretty self-defeating. Elections are about persuading people to change their minds. Millions of natural Tories voted for Blair in 1997, and it doesn't help the party in 2010 if you look down on them.
No guts, no glory
Six points with YouGov. Seven with ICM. Nine with Harris. Twelve with Angus Reid. Fourteen with Angus Reid in the top 150 marginals. Confusing? Sure. But really, so what? My heroine, Margaret Thatcher, famously said that when she left politics she was going to start a "rent-a-spine" business. It...
When I was 14.
No guts, no glory
Six points with YouGov. Seven with ICM. Nine with Harris. Twelve with Angus Reid. Fourteen with Angus Reid in the top 150 marginals. Confusing? Sure. But really, so what? My heroine, Margaret Thatcher, famously said that when she left politics she was going to start a "rent-a-spine" business. It...
I've never voted Labour in my life, Treacle. As I have said before, in the 1997 election I was a Conservative activist - for my mother!
No guts, no glory
Six points with YouGov. Seven with ICM. Nine with Harris. Twelve with Angus Reid. Fourteen with Angus Reid in the top 150 marginals. Confusing? Sure. But really, so what? My heroine, Margaret Thatcher, famously said that when she left politics she was going to start a "rent-a-spine" business. It...
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Feb 23, 2010
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