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I Ballantinegray1
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Hi Sam! GW here! I'd wondered where our weekly data updates had gone.... I'd expected you'd taken a nice summer hol but this is something else!!! It is so nice to see you progressing in your choice of career and not just stuck keyboard warrioring like myself ( not that I'm able to take the rigours you're putting yourself through any more.....my excuse and i'll stick to it ta!). you are an inspiration to all of us on the sites you post on!!! Ahd Mor !!!
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2017 on Guest blog: Tuk toy what? at Arctic Sea Ice
Good Luck with everything Neven. Thank you so much for setting everything up that we have all enjoyed over the years. You have brought many people together and , who knows, some of those folk may well make a big difference in getting out our message and providing solutions. Thanks again for everything!
Toggle Commented Nov 20, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Rob D! After 07' folk were clamouring for recovery b( some folk) but I had it in mind that part of the extent/area was the 'collapse and spread' of older floes. A few years later Prof Barber confirmed that this , to some lesser or greater extent, had been occurring and brought us the new ice type of 'rotten ice'. If they was another 'step change' in 07' it was the opening up of the basin so ass to allow this 'collapse and spread' phenomena to play out. 2010 then took a good portion of this ice when we saw the record low volume? The basin ,today, sees the lowest volume/extent for the time of year. surely this makes for an interesting Sept even if we end up with another 'average' weather year? The fact so much dark water has been open for so much longer must build up a greater 'melt momentum' than previous years could with less 'dark water' open to the sun?
Toggle Commented Jun 10, 2016 on Crisis in the Cryosphere at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm very much in agreement with your closing statement Neven! Since the turn of the century the '2 year rebound' seems to be the measure? Maybe it's just playing the odds in a system where 'average' summer can bring us 2012 melts? Surely the odds are stacked toward the 'warm' or 'average' season and not 'cool'? Maybe the whole of the Arctic system is in flux and is responding to the huge volume losses over the past 50 years ( with the move to more 'open water' being the final straw?). As for this year? Well Fram is still well and truly open for business so we continue to shed older ice in favour of late grown FY ice ( even if it is being compressed/over ridden on Greenlands north shore?) So the basin has not been 'static' over re-freeze with older, stronger ice being swapped for younger ,weaker ice. Beaufort has been fragmented and stirred and Nares has only recently arched shut. As ever I'm looking forward to an interesting melt season to come but I'm even less hopeful of another year of consolidation and fearful of another downward jolt esp. if global temps remain high?
Toggle Commented Feb 7, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
I begin to think that some of the surface warming we currently have been seeing across the N.Pacific is down to reductions in emissions from China as they struggle to reduce low level pollution across their cities? Unlike us, when we faced similar issues, they have access to tried and tested technology and so their 'fix' will occur far faster than it did for western europe/USA ? If we are to see China 'clean up' its act then we will see it occur very quickly and the impacts assert themselves just as swiftly?
Toggle Commented Jan 22, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, Happy New Year! Do you think there might be a threshold value where the DMI's observations no longer apply? I mean if we see another 'perfect melt storm year'( earliest possible return we are told) drop values down into the 'virtually no ice' will that throw another forcing into the equation making ice rebuild more difficult ( swells across the whole basin/high relative humidity across the basin/introduction of TM air mass storms into an ice free basin in Autumn etc)? In my rather 'large strokes' of understanding things it looks like the DMI's observations are Mother N. struggling to keep things 'stable'? With AGW forcings steadily rising and it now looking like the 'naturals' are flipping positive then maybe we ought to expect another shocking ice loss year over the coming decade as renewed warming bites? At such point does not Mother N./the system flip to the next stable regime ( ice free?)?
We have seen an 'extent' stall 9 since Dec 25th) and the destruction of all the ice in Bering from Jan 1st to 4th so i'd expect all of that , and Fram export of our Atlantic retained ice to impact the 'growth in volume over both Dec and Jan Piomas dropping us back into the 'bad years' of reduced volume? Then we do have to think of spring? with Bering and Okhotsk being such late developers and new ice replacing the 2.5m+ ice over our side of the basin things might start with a rapid drop ( as this late formed ice succumbs to early melt pressures?) Of course this is all 'Weather' dependent but we have just had one of , if not 'The' hottest years on record and ice is no friend of heat?
Thanks for that Veli!, i had never considered the impact of ice tumbling before. I had mulled the impact of loss of snow cover that over wash of fragmented ice might drive but not an interruption to the loss of salt from FY ice due to rolling/tumbling of ice? I recall a paper from 09' noting a change in sea ice at formation due to increased wave activity ( now forming 'pancake ice' like we see form on rivers?) so the new ice forming across the basin might actually be 'shaped'in a way promoting rolling as the ice thickens esp. when swells are present? I'd also noted that the resumption in export had zoned in on the Atlantic sector multiyear ice ( from the past 2 years of retention?) and that we appear to be currently down to less than 50% of that present in Oct with transport still ongoing. The L.P.'s , south of Svalbard, are first dragging the ice toward Fram ( on the easterly element of the pressure system) and then driving it into Fram 9 when the northerly element takes hold). With some doozies now in the forecast these L.P. systems seem set to run for a while longer so just how much ice will be left over Fram come spring? Trading 2.5m+ ice for sub 1m ice does not appear a good trade in my book.
Toggle Commented Jan 4, 2015 on Fram Strait 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'd been noting this 'odd' behaviour over on other sites that i use so am pleased to see Wipneus coming up with some excellent graphics to highlight this!! Through the winters of the 80's did we not see massive losses via Fram ( the first signs of thing to come?) and so why should we not expect to see similar again over coming years? The animation of ice through the noughties also shows Fram taking the older ice throughout the year ( almost like the basin vomiting the contents of its stomach !). I was very surprised to see 2014 repeating the retention of 2013, I'd have thought it far more likely for an average or warm year to follow on from the 'cool year' so this coming melt season must be even less likely to see another high retention year? Put it another way what would 08' have looked like in Sept if we had seen a repeat of 07' that year? I'm sure that , over here, we all know what the prognosis for the ice is midst the trends for steadily increasing temps around the basin ( and that 'warming' heading south as the recent report from Finland shows). In other places the recent swathe of reports of the ice being 'more resilient' has lead to an upsurge in 'recovery clamor' and any reminders of just how fragile the basin is leaves one labelled as 'doomsayer' or 'catastrophist' and not as a realist!
Toggle Commented Dec 28, 2014 on Fram Strait 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
For a 'butterflies wing' a nuclear test is a biggie! I remember My grandparents blaming rotten weather on the Nuke testing.......maybe they had a point? To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction......
Toggle Commented May 31, 2014 on Greenland 2013 in review at Arctic Sea Ice
I find the figures more striking when I remember that snow cover didn't begin to crash until the late 90's and sea ice didn't crash in extent/area until 07'? this represents only half the study period for snow and far less for open water Arctic ocean. What does occur when we have the full 30yr period for an ice free summer basin? What 'proportion' of CO2 warming would we be looking at then? 75%?, 100%? more? Also ,unlike CO2 the impact from Albedo crash is near instant so changes to albedo lead to near instant responses in our climate system. Are we setting up for a sudden leap in global temp, as the ice fades, comparable to all the warming we currently experienced but over a couple of years?
Hi wili! Our 'fast' Jet is due to the 'loopy' Jet over the US. Once that cold air spills out over the (relatively) warm Atlantic you have the potential differences to enliven the Jet and turn out Low pressure after low pressure. Werther, what info do you have on the PDO phase? I'm of the opinion that we are set to see a switch back to PDO+ ( and see the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation flip to warm ocean phase from deep ocean warming)but have not seen anything from the agencies. I'd initially put the flip to PDO-ve at 98' but recent have wondered if I needed to push that back a number of years?
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Though too early to make predictions we can look to our climate forecasts for guidance? The odds are looking good for an El Nino to form over summer and recent updates hint toward a possible 'super' Nino event? ( 16 years since the last). The volume losses we saw during the very stunted Nino ( 9 months) of 2010 might hint at how both this and , should we see a full 18 month Nino event, next years losses might trend? At least we can look to the way this winter differs from last and draw the conclusion that an exact repeat looks unlikely?
I was watching the Beeb report on the US cold plunge and the chappie from the MetO went into some detail to dispel the myth that we in the UK get the US weather a week later. He was at pains to explain that after a few days over the Atlantic the cold would effectively be killed ( modified) by the waters. The powerful vortex that allowed the deep cold over the Arctic over the early winter will be negated in a matter of days. How many such plunges do we need to see the results begin to spike on the DMI 80N plots? When I see such an elongate Jet pattern as to drop polar air into the region of the sub tropical Jet I have to wonder if this is how we lose the Polar jet completely and end up with a strengthened sub tropical Jet running more north than it used ( kind of like the Jet Pattern we have seen over the Asian/Pacific region over the past few weeks?)Obviously the contact zone of such air masses would be a very messy affair!
Whilst we are expecting the cold to continue with the general 'refreeze' patterns I've been wondering at the 'spurt' of 2m ice into Fram over the past weeks? It looks like a lot more ice could be destined to go the same way as this weekend's forecast storm leaves some pretty tight isobars between Greenland and Svalbard. The 'thin ice' over the pole looks like it could be aiding in this process by both being fragmented by the swells the storm drives and then compressed by thicker ice to the rear as the 'drift' gets a push from the winds aiming at Fram. Could we see some of our 'gains' from this summer actually eroded away by an active Fram season this winter? When we had thick ice the speed of transport was a lot slower than we see today so any return to the kind of synoptics that were common through the 80's could be even more devastating to the ice there this time around? Maybe something to be mindful of come the Dec/Jan Piomas figures?
Toggle Commented Nov 13, 2013 on PIOMAS October 2013, take two at Arctic Sea Ice
Well it has certainly proven to be a very 'interesting' season so far? I just cannot figure how it will go over the next 70days but know that whenever the ice melts, be it july 10th or Sept 10th it is no longer there on extent/area plots? Unlike other years we see the central basin pretty bashed up with it's albedo lowered in a way I don't think we have ever witnessed before? This area has the 'shortest' melt season but does it's current condition mean that we will see far bigger losses there than we are used to? Other sea areas are holding onto far more ice than we are used to seeing ( since 07' ) but experience tells us that these areas 'melt out' over 'average summers'? We may be used to seeing the areas 'ice free' by early Aug but what does it matter if it is 'late Aug' by the time the ice goes? The forecast 'melt friendly' period of weather will give us some clues as to what we should expect of the basin? In past years I have looked to the CT concentration map, at the start of Aug, to see the 'shape' of the ice that will be left at seasons end ( only the highest concentration areas normally survive?) but I think this year this method might not prove as useful??
Toggle Commented Jul 5, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm sorry Chris B. but where is the airmass in the cyclone coming from and where does the cyclone draw it's WAA from? Over summer the answers must be 'from a warmer source' and that 'warmer source' must hold more moisture ( less easily chilled than 'dry air') Any precipitation in the peripheries of the basin will be rain and so aid rapid melt and expose more open waters there ( lessening the 'chilling of the air mass heading poleward). Removal of the peripheral ice opens more space for ice to 'relax' into under the wind field of the cyclone. Rinse and repeat.
Hi Mr Gates! Since 07' I had used the 'High concentration' ice on Aug 1st ( C.T.) to have an idea of the final ice mass left come Sept. At some point this correlation must fail as ice thickness in that mass of high concentration ice does not have it in it to survive the bottom melt end of the season (or exceptional export events?). When I consider the fracturing we saw in this area ( your outline) of ice, and remember the loss of the shorefast ice along N.Greenland last year, I wonder if this year will be the one to fall lower than the 'High conc ice' on Aug 1st?
As for N.Hemisphere 'weather' the continent will now warm up under the continental high so any easterlies we see in the UK will only have the N.Sea to temper the temps? If the 2012 ice low adds as much of a ramp to the n.Hemispheres summer climate as 07's low did then we should expect a distinctly different mix for summer here in the UK? Even less energy for the jet (polar) might see it fall off the charts for periods over the summer (as the wind speed criteria for it being plotted is not achieved) leaving only 'jet Streaks' around the N.Hemisphere? Home grown inner continental highs, as we have seen this winter, will then dominate leading to heatwaves ,drought and wildfires in the regions most impacted by them (again!) butmaybe areas like the U.K., blighted by 'stuck' low pressure systems will have a respite as those areas diminish/move location due to the lower energy Jet becoming ever more sinuous/absent? Just a thought?
We do have the 'growth' at the edges but also the fill in ice as the cracks have opened. Neither of these areas of 'growth' should fill us will confidence for the melt season to come? I know we have to be hopeful for some kind of recovery over the coming months but I have tried this since 07' only to find myself burned again come each ice min. My reality remains one of a basin with a majority of thin young ice with even the older ice merely a 'Sheep in Wolf's clothing' ( being a skim of older ice underlain by a keel of FYI.....) and a basin that is able to see off 2m plus FYI before the start of Aug even with 'average' weather.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2013 on PIOMAS March 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I find it a worry that so many folk seem to be thinking that a 'Sulphate Parasol' could be used to cool the pole. When I look at the globally dimmed period, post WW2, where the U.S. and Europe went on their coal binge I find that the period when the worst of the problems were being washed out of our atmosphere appears to coincide with the fastest warming rates the planet has so far seen? Did the Asian coal boom coincide with the alleged 'flat-lining of global temps (post 98)? Have we lost the Arctic ice's extent/area over a period where we were globally dimmed by the Asian coal fest? (not to mention cool drivers and low solar) and if so what is set to occur as they (Asia) start to clean up their acts (with western help) by fitting similar scrubbers to their smoke stacks/towers? If the 80's CO2 levels allowed for the rises in temps we saw then what scale of warming are we about to emerge out into? And then what chance for the Arctic?
Toggle Commented Oct 11, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking out into FI in the forecasting models if often silly but esp. once we get big 'Canes trawling the Atlantic. As such the teleconnections of these hard to predict beasties must throw some influence into the Arctic? If we theorize that the flap of a butterflies wing in japan can have influence on the formation of a 'cane in the Caribbean then what influence a Cat4 on the weather patterns in the Arctic? Should Leslie stall off Bermuda long enough for the H.P. to block her from visiting the UK with her remnants then why not Baffin and into the Basin as a potent L.P.? (that said the current remnant L.P. does look bound for blighty but still doesn't dip as low as the GAC12....just watch the swell in NW Scotland/W.Cornwall as she breezes in and wonder about those slumping permafrost coastlines back in Aug!) Took a wander onto MODIS today. Quite stunned by the amount of 'Milky Swirls' within the basin. I'm quite used to seeing them off the plume of ice flowing down Greenland's NE coast, as the ice melts out (almost fractal like in nature?), but I have never seen so much around the inside of the Basin? The past few days of Healy images are just as depressing. Apart from the snowfall they got, which brightens up the ice, the amount of near submerged floes they are running through worries me.
We also had Palms that can't survive below 50f on Ellesmere island so something kept the temps up over the cold period? We know the natives spot leads today by the Arctic Sea smoke they produce when water hits very cold air so why not thick fogs/low cloud from the warm waters below? When the ice has gone we will have warm surface currents running trans polar so we have a constant 'radiator' across the basin. The question has to be 'when'?
I noted the quake and had to wonder about the hydrates perched on the continental shelfs nearby? Any landslides could lead to a methane burp we hadn't expected? Another 'time will tell all' situation I suppose?
I'm sorry G.B. but I doubt we'll find any help via the politicians? Stay where you are and allow the Lurkers to gain a full picture of both the ice situation and the lack of interest Politicians have in the long term safety of their constituents. I've remembered the info the 2011 Catlin survey brought us. FY ice melt drops low in the water column (due to it's salty nature) forcing warmer waters up. If most of the MY ice left has a welded on keel of FY ice then the top melt meltwater provides the perfect environment to allow this siphon to run once bottom melt begins. Is this what is happening under the bulk of the remaining pack right now?