This is Chris Biscan's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Chris Biscan's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Chris Biscan
Recent Activity
Just did a 30 min run through of the 12z Euro and GFS. after day 2-3 they are a mess. All over the place. the arctic is turning colder though. But also chaotic. The models are always to cold in the medium and long term because of climo. However without a DPA we won't get to 2007 min on Jaxa this year. The ice has dodged the bullet. The last 5 days 20-30 kt winds barely touched the Pack from ESB-Barrents. If those winds were another 200 miles over the pack like the models showed a week ago. We would have seen much more compaction. This has been the story all summer. If I had to give grades in terms of winds for ice loss, I'd give it a D+. 2007 had an A. But yet we are right there. We won't see refreeze even with widespread -6 to -12C 850s with so many SLPs moving 20-30kt winds all over the place. we have to take this day by day now. Only use 3 day forecasts and 1-2 day ice outlooks with the wild variables like Hurricanes, surface feature placement, and temps.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Watts predicted 5,750,000 min this year. Watts is an actor. He has nothing at stake. He is completely irrelevant to the"real" scientific community. I've spent to many hours the last 3 days reading his site. And he is a B list actor at best. With a long list of cronies that he tells them what they want to hear. On Nevens blog our most alarmist if you want to call it that is talking about data inconsistencies if there is any to find out the bottom line of it. On Watts they talk about ice breakers helping the decline. That is insane talk. We only accept strong peer reviewed work as consensus and allow the free flowing ideas to go here but question it, allow everyone there individual opinion without much crassness and disrespect. There peer reviewed science can be crapped on for ideology. We are like the Federation they are like the Borg. If you notice most skeptic blogs are loaded with primary conservative American's and most sites in reality have a mosh of people from all over the World. I personally have encountered a couple times here where someone from a country that may not have had recent access to the data like an American has. Because of the reach of high speed internet and the timeline of it. I have been to quick to judge and have been in error of being the "Arrogant American". I don't even consider myself American. I am human. Neven has put together a nice community here. Everyone brings their own individuality. Free thought and opinion matter. But it doesn't take down peer reviewed scientific accepted fact or theory because of bias. Watt's hasn't posted a Sea Ice Update in a long time. Americanwx.com has deserted the sea ice thread after months of posts and mostly insults for me. Those people are gone, silenced in shame. Watt's threads for sea ice have all went silent as well. Don't worry at the next sign of ice recovery or a cold period where it does well. They will light up and tell us how stupid we are. How sad. the tiny tiny minority will fight this to the bitter ends. And will feel the horrible guilt when the cascade effect of an ice free arctic impedes on our ecosystem.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on How thick is your ice? at Arctic Sea Ice
No Problem.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Paul, that is now happening in the Beaufort too and is going on in the Fram and Greenland sea. these next 3 days this pattern holds. We could have a century break tomorrow if that ice in the Beaufort/Western Arctic basin gets smashed in and the ice can move off Greenland some more. If that area between 135E and 105E melts out, look out.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
really big drop on the UB final. Compaction all over the ice pack..not sure if it will show up tonight in Jaxa fully. but it will be like this the next few days maybe a bit faster.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Paul, The difference is because it's late summer and Jaxa uses a 12.5 grid res and UB uses a 6.25km grid res. From the NSIDC: Data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) sensor, processed by the University of Bremen, show ice tracking near 2007 levels. The AMSR-E instrument can detect small but widespread areas of open water within the ice pack in the Beaufort and East Siberian seas, because of its resolution (6.25 kilometers or 3.88 miles). Normally, NSIDC uses data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). F17 provides a longer time series of data, but at a 25-kilometer (15.5-mile) resolution. UB probably picks up 50,000km2 more of open water it the region between 135E and 105E from 85N to 80N compared to jaxa. The Larger grid boxes will be prone to pick up more ice. this is why as I said go to 2003 not 2011 now and see the differences back then when the summers had less holes like this the stats were the same. This is the same reason norsex is way off. I don't think there is any other way to explain this.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Paul the Y axis is different on the graphs. For most of the year the numbers are nearly identical. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png Start with 2003 Paul. the only time they diverge is when the ice has water inside the extent's reach. like this year. most of the time other then smoothed data the are nearly identical. How is that so hard for you to see? This is from there website: Method for calculating sea-ice extent * The sea-ice extent is calculated as the areal sum of sea ice covering the ocean where sea-ice concentration (SIC) exceeds 15%. SIC data of JAXA’s AMSR-E standard products are used for this purpose (http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/AMSR/products/pdf/alg_des.pdf). The algorithm for calculating SIC was developed and provided by Dr. Comiso of NASA GSFC through a cooperative relationship between NASA and JAXA. * The black dot seen at the North Pole is an area lacking data where AMSR-E cannot observe the Earth’s surface due to the limit of its observational coverage (i.e., orbit inclination of 98deg. and swath width of 1600km). Please note that this area is also counted as sea-ice cover in our estimation of sea-ice extent. We may change the policy (i.e., filling the gap with full coverage of sea ice) in the near future due to the recent drastic reduction of Arctic sea ice. We will announce this if it is implemented. In principle, SIC data could have errors of 10% at most, particularly for the area of thin sea ice seen around the edge of sea-ice cover and melted sea ice seen in summer. Also, SIC along coastal lines could also have errors due to sub-pixel contamination of land cover in an instantaneous field of view of AMSR-E data Averaging period and the update timing of daily data * In general, sea-ice extent is defined as a temporal average of several days (e.g., five days) in order to eliminate calculation errors due to a lack of data (e.g., for traditional microwave sensors such as SMMR and SSM/I). However, we adopt the average of two days to achieve rapid data release. The wider spatial coverage of AMSR-E enables reducing the data-production period. * Usually the latest value of daily sea-ice extent is fixed and updated at around 1 p.m. (4 a.m.) JST (UT). Before the value is fixed, we also assign a preliminary value of daily sea-ice extent several times (usually three to four times) as an early report, which is determined without the full two-day observation coverage. (The fixed values of sea-ice extent are determined with the full coverage of observation data. They admit to a 10 percent error. Right now there are tons of areas not counted because of holes in the ice. But the graphs show the data is nearly the same. Except differnt algorithms. Both places update there data all day until there final numbers they extract from the exact same files.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
If you guys line up the UB maps just right you can see the compaction in all of the places I described well under way. If that area in the Laptev around 85N opens up the next 3 days we could have a century break.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
The ice off NE Greenland is falling apart rapidly. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2011241.aqua Just brutal.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
That won't end the melt season. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/Arctic_r03c03/2011241/Arctic_r03c03.2011241.terra.1km.jpg http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2011239.terra.1km.jpg This isn't our Fathers Arctic Sea Ice. hell this isn't my Teen years(I am 28) Arctic sea ice. The thing to take from that graph is that thick sea ice can't move like that from mediocre winds in 36 hours.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
thanks neven. The bottom melt is crazy.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
The Euro sets up a reverse DPA. This might lift the entire Ice pack off Greenland enough for some unreal images of the arctic come 10-15 days if that happens.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
UB prelim map shows decrease in the Beaufort. The Extent drops will pick up steam now. Without any divergence we may see 3+ days around 75,000 per day with those inflows on both sides. stay tuned.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
William, CT covers Sea Ice Area and concentration. Masie covers Sea Ice Extent. Unless there is a Masie Area page I am missing. The lack of meteorology in this thread is rather disturbing. I have a hard time believing many can grasp the arctic ice and what is going on without at least giving the meteorology of this some modest attention. I spent 2006-now learning meteorology which helped me understand the arctic and the arctic process quickly and pretty well. I am currently turning my focus to Oceanography and all things SSTs and sea salt water related to melt. William again, you should do some research on Ships and buoy data in regards to ice thickness and Temperature profiles under the ice. You may not understand this yet. But the warm waters do not just vanish when they run into the ice or colder waters..they stream south under the ice and under the layer of fresh water at the surface(right under the ice)The warm water filled with salt moves faster, as in the particles move faster which infiltrate and by default warm the colder fresh water from below. While 2010 stopped surface melt in mid September and you saw rapid ice freeze on the top. Then snow quickly cover it, which gives a false positive on thickness color. Which makes the ice to appear much thicker on modis. For instance. This Winter areas of the ESB have 30-80CM of melt to go still, like as of now. this thin ice will form. Lets say a 200km2 block forms..in 3 days t goes 10CM thick. during that 3 days most of it will lose 3-6CM from the bottom. But the models that do not account for bottom melt say it's 10 CM. well over the course of the Winter from that moment that area reaches 2-3 Meters on Pips. But there was 30-80CM loss at the bottom so now it's anywhere from 1.2 meters to 2.7. With an error towards 1.4-2.4 meters. 10-30 years ago this didn't happen near as much or strong. Right now the BEAUFORT IS TORCHING. Warm SSTs have exploded again along the NW Canadian and Alaskan shore. An SLP has come into play over the Western Arctic Basin. This SLP will turn the flow with the help of an HP over the beaufort Sea W-E. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110829183307.gif You can see there is the SLP and HP..the flow is directly around the area's of lowest and highest pressure. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110829183411.gif 850mb temps(5000 feet) are warm in Alaska bleeding over into the Arctic. These temps are downslooping off the Mtns in Alaska. This helps mixing to the surface. There is also enough sun around to facilitate windier conditions and mixing down. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110829183700.gif over 1-2 millionkm2 of open ocean/ice wind speeds are 12-30 mph between now and 72 hours all moving relatively W-E. This is transporting that warm air and Warm Waters and slamming it into the cold pool of air over the central arctic. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110829183838.gif you can see there the wind direction. If you notice the Fram/Greenland Sea is taking the same beating. The Last few days the kara/Laptev/barrents took the same beating. And water temps in the Kara shot up. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110829184108.gif 2M temps in Alaska are decieving because they are relative to the mtns. The air that comes off this over the Coast with 5-10C SSTs and 6-10C 850s is warm..this gets modified but creates melt/ocean water warming. those SSTs get slammed into the ice with those winds or under the surface water....this speeds up water particles and aids in melt. Overall this means Volume has taken a beating the last few years. only super thin ice has saved extent and near ideal winds all summer.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Yeah the Beaufort didn't eat as much ice as the prelim had. since that connection is gonna stop....extent drops will pick up...possibly 50-70K the next 2-3 days.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/arctic_AMSRE_nic.png The ice pack has separated from the land in many areas and faces a wind that might actually push the main pack off Greenland and only leave a small part in the NW territories attached. This would be a first.
Is there any sea ice measurements coming out of the Healy.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
UB prelim = going back above 5,000,000km2. we will see. Gonna be close.
UB Prelim out showing the beggnings of what I described above. Jaxa might go above 5,000,000km2 for a day though.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828160408.gif by day 2.5 inflow is still rolling over the Western Arctic. The Fram still has a strong flow up around Greenland.. these two will compact ice over the Canadian Basin. by day 3: the inflow starts to weaken. the inflow over the fram gets stronger and warmer. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828160541.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828160726.gif Warm air is relentless coming out of Alaska this will keep SSTs warm and pushing into the Western Arctic. While Warm Air/Water is pushed into the Greenland Sea. the central arctic will see melt ponds freeze over but no ice will form over open seas as to much warm water is around and to much wind flows. Can't see the rest of the run for a bit..but it is already setting up for a powerful SLP to push into the Western Arctic by day 5-7 which would mean massive compaction.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828155456.gif 12z GFS coming in stronger with SLP. the models have trended stronger with this piece for 2 days..4 days ago it didn't exist... thank you Hurricane Emily. As you can see that map is perfect for compaction this time of year. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828155633.gif By tonight the flow is established and ripping. The Fram has a constant inflow that only gets stronger as the week goes on. The flow down the right side is compacting the ESB, Kara, and Laptev, with the Barrents expanding but not much because the flow diverges and splits back to Greenland. While the other side flows out to warm waters. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828155834.gif Warm air: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828160006.gif The Kara and Beaufort have 10-12C 850 positive anomalies right now. this is reflected well on the SST charts. Winds are 15-20Kts inflowing warm air/SSTS into the Western arctic and compacting the ice.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
in this case I would think both will be contributing factors. the weather isn't bad. The Extent has been saved by thin ice converging in the face of warm winds. The winds have been blustery along the NW Territories into the Beaufort causing masssive Convergence of thin ice. The winds are about to go calm on the West side and do a 180 on the East side as an HP gets stronger and slides south towards Alaska. This brings a 15K wind pushing into the ice pack up there. with warm water and air.should see compacting kick in fast. That ice is weak..
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c03.2011240.aqua The Fram Ice is about to drop below 15% as warm water and soon warm air with sun gets pumped into this area for the next 3-5 days. This will aid in the extent dropping again.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
A Decent SLP is forming over the Western Arctic, moving into the Arctic basin by tonight. this is going to create a decent inflow from the warm waters of the bearing and the warn waters of the North Atlantic. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828151811.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828151916.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110828151958.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn062.gif If the Beaufort Ice didn't get converged from a heavy E to SE wind the last 4-5 days we would be down to 4.8km2 or so by now. But that will be quickly stopped. That area is still torching for this time of year. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/plots/satsst.arc.d-00.png http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/plots/satanom.arc.d-00.png The ice will see some bigger drops the next 3-4 days.
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line at Arctic Sea Ice
Jaxa revised upwards because it goes on a 2 day average. And the loss the 2nd day was much lower. So by the final, the final loss number averaged with the day before was lower then the first 2 day averaged prelim. yesterdays loss was negligible. This will hold todays down, so it could be as low as 30km2 today when it is probably 50-60km2 for a single day.