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There's another stage.. the Internet of Identity. Once we can trust who people really say they are via the Internet, it will change our on-line behaviours significantly. Knowing your customer and single customer views will be possible, and probably encouraged, and we'll be able to finally reach a true implementation of single sign on across the Internet. Once we have an online identity, which is trusted by financial organisations, they will be able to exchange our data (but only the minimum dataset required), ultimately making it easier for us all - the customers.
I don't think banks are as mistrusted or hated as much as commentators and the media makes them appear. We all trust banks. The proof? We still have our salaries paid into banks every month. And what do we do with the money in our accounts? Do we withdraw it as quickly as possible because we mistrust the bank? No, we leave it there. And it's because we fundamentally trust banks. Do we hate banks? No. The proof? Churn between banks is still incredibly low, to the point of envy across any other industry, except sport. Is there a move away from large banks to small local banks? No. Because we don't hate large banks. We don't hate any banks. (I don't work for a bank).
The biggest strategic question is whether the new challenger or Digital banks are more profitable than the existing ones! In the first half of 2014 Lloyds Bank made £1.8bn profit before tax on revenues of £8.7bn. If I were sitting in a traditional bank looking to start a totally new digital one, I'd look hard at those numbers to see whether they can be improved upon.
Great post Chris! In the last six months I always ask a question during speeches and presentations: "Please raise your hand if you have a Bitcoin wallet." The feedback is fascinating. For such a small investment (time and money) compared to the potential amount of the disruption, I'm amazed how few people in the financial services industry have dabbled in cryptocurrencies.
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Jan 2, 2015