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Carloshasanax
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How similar are the temperature plats? The first-order worry is food security, no? Here's my thinking: take the modal case for the Neo-Oligocene forecasts. An absence of precipitation is more expensive for human civilization to deal with than an abundance. Additionally, cost figures for irrigation and desalination are known. Then compare the modal Neo-Eocene forecast. Here, the damage to human agricultural productivity will be due to variability. Wet rice cultivation has the highest yielding grain per area.
Fiorina as VP pick wouldn't -- what's the cliche? "move the needle" -- at all, although she wouldn't be actively offensive, the way Palin was to many Republican-leaning women. It's striking how tone-deaf even moderate male Republicans are about Clinton's candidacy. For example, calling it a coronation, with the semantic implication that Clinton will somehow become queen, is of course grating to Democrats, but women in general tend to find it insulting. Again, you don't need to be a political scientist to see a structural dissimilarity in how the two parties treat women. (Would Democrats treat a presumptive Republican woman presidential candidate the same way? That's an unanswerable question, since none are likely to exist any time soon, which is rather my point.)
Race is an obvious factor in the election, but with Clinton as the likely Democratic nominee, I'd think that the gender breakdown of voters will be a factor as well. As the case of Todd Akin, the Republican non-senator from Missouri, demonstrates, some male Republican candidates hold views that are abhorrent even to long-time Republican women voters. The Republicans have an ongoing talking point that there is no "war on women," but the burden of proof is on them. Certainly their present witch hunt against Planned Parenthood is not a sign of their good faith on this issue. As Clinton's nomination moves from a likelihood to a certainty, it seems clear that some Republicans will employ misogynistic "dogwhistle" tactics against her candidacy. Frankly, I think some of them will even use foghorn tactics. Just as Walker energizes black voters, a Republican candidate who is associated with these tactics will likely energize women voters against him. Because of this additional factor, I think it's possible that Clinton could have a significant swing of women voters, which will show up more in the popular vote than in the electoral college -- but enough to make it hurt the GOP right in the symbols. (This factor goes away if the GOP nominates Fiorina, but I'd bet a thousand dollars against that. Any takers?)
Just saw this -- I was looking for a reason why a mutual acquaintance might argue Newfoundland fish were analogous to Greek money, scrolling through the back issues. Alas, I remain unenlightened. I think factors in the decision to remain childless for one's life have changed. What they are materially, I don't know. Costs of child-raising certainly haven't dropped; neither have incomes for post-graduate women particularly risen; and as you've worked out, IVF just isn't numerically large enough. On the other hand, I think it wouldn't take much difference in how people evaluate the metaphorical discount rate of future children to account for the shift. I think I've mentioned in email the crazy people in Boston who equate the lives of future individuals to present ones? They might be the statistical tail of a broader trend.
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Jul 5, 2015