@Sam the chart itself doesn't merely ignore feedbacks; it ignores CO2. notice at the bottom, imagining a 'sudden stop' to CO2 emissions in 2016, the temperature immediately starts to drop. this, despite the lag in warming that occurs after CO2 emissions. even if we stopped right now, even if feedbacks such as methane etc didn't occur, the earth would still warm for decades just from the GHGs we've pumped out recently. in short, there's no way we're staying below 1.5C, and pretty much no way we're staying below 2C. to stay below 3C we'd have to wholesale change all of industrial society very quickly AND feedbacks from desertification to methane release would have to magically not occur.

speaking of trollery! Arctic sea ice extent is the highest since 2006 2009 aside, the good thing about the chart above is the trend line is easy to follow. if extent this year turns out to be 5 million km^2, it'll be right smack on the trend line, which anyone can tell is going down, down, down.

i concur, well-deserved. This blog has been practically troll-free for three years. well, it helps that you keep the site clear of drive-bys etc. nothing worse than seeing a good discussion site get mired in responding to consistent trollery.

@Neven, off-topic Gish Gallops i like to think of a big bag full of a gish-gallop of bafflegab. a "gish-gafflebag" if you will.

the PDO may be switching to a cooling phase?

LOL. "This is a science board, so let me quote Anthony Watts..." That's the best joke I've heard all day.

Yeah, the cracking from Morris Jesup is basically merging with that coming across the Lincoln Sea. I had hoped the MYI around Lincoln would hold faster than this. this is truly amazing to watch in real time. kinda horriying, but amazing nonetheless.

NeilT, actually CT is now showing a new record low of <2.24. ugh.

Seke Rob - I tried all morning, but it just came back online. 2.59m k^2. ugh.