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An interesting read having spent some time on the research side of the payments industry... Definitely have not thought so practically about passwords as a deterrent to alternative payment adoption, so this was a new take from the PayPal trenches. Per online payment behaviors, the surveys I read or conducted all showed security concerns were the biggest inhibitor/barrier for alternative online payment providers... That's arguably why Yodlee failed doing what Mint ended up succeeding in doing – Not enough consumers trusted Yodlee at the time to give them their BoA login credentials. That was a couple years ago, though, when mobile banking was revolutionary. It truly amazes me how much things have changed in the payment space since then, particularly with regard to security concerns. Never would anyone have expected blippy to pop up 3 years ago. I would not count out Google, however. I’ve always been fascinated w/ payment at the intersection of the physical & virtual world; so, I'm interested in what Google will do to onboard and create a powerful merchant ecosystem (must remember there's 2 sides to any payment system's success): Registered merchants on google maps + location based services + payment (pre-order, pre-pay, real-time couponing, etc.) is a powerful mashup. After all, only 4% of all retail $-volume happens online. I like to think that the 4% will start to eat away at more of physical retail sales bc of the virtual/physical types of mashups -- but agree that subscriptions will help drive up the ecommerce piece of the pie -- especially if media distribution and consumption behaviors change. But that may prove to be a big assumption to make. It's too early to tell, I think.
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Feb 1, 2010