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Guillaume Tell
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Anu: We have our own elephant in the room: this thread is a better place because the Arctic melt is bad news for deniers, so they don't leave comments here. And, I'm late to realize, because we aren't responding to them. But we can't ignore them completely. Sea Ice News # 23 is now out, and suggests that the recent losses disappeared around Greenland (in apparent contradiction to CT's Greenland Sea area graphs). Then the discussion switched to around-Greenland export in the 2007 season. Note the animation's irrelevancy, since it is dated after 2007's minimum: from Oct 1,2007 to March18,2008. They are becoming easier and easier to ignore.
4842031 (Sep 17, 2010) - 4798750 (Sep 18, 2010) = 43281 preliminary 4798750 (Sep 18, 2010) - 4707813 (Sep 09, 2008) = 90937 And global temp uah 14000ft AQUA channel 5 is up there with the record high, today. And I recommend lots of bulk grated parmesan with expensive olive oil, on the popcorn.
"By "ice-free" Maslowki tells me he means more than an 80% drop from the 1979-2000 summer volume baseline of ~20000km^3. Some sea ice above Greenland and Canada may survive into the 2020's..." Joe Romm Andrew Xnn: I agree with you that ALL sea ice predictions should be similarly qualified.
Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School has one of the earliest predictions for an (80%) ice free Arctic: 2016 +/-3yrs. "Heat content accumulating in the sub-surface (Western Arctic) ocean since mid-1990's may explain over 60% of total ice thickness change." Do we assume he has access to subsurface temperature data, from nuclear submarines? And do we weight his prediction accordingly?
I've already expressed my long term pessimism. Short term I want just enough global warming to break the 2008 sea ice minimum, and to make 2010 the hottest year. So people might pay attention. If not, maybe they'll notice the next El Nino.
Ice thickness (and volume) look better and better for keeping score, in a thinning-ice future. This assumes that Cryosat-2 provides quick and reliable information. Of course a few more years of continuing decline would lead to general acceptance. And no one would be listning to those few people still talking 'Recovery.' And eventually the sea ice will melt back so far, that the multi-year ice will be inconsequential. And then we can return to measurements of area and extent.
Oslo..........WUWT has the Arctic map (from NSIDC) showing the corresponding outage area to the graph's 9/13 too-sudden-drop.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2010 on Arctic Recovery Crock of the Week at Arctic Sea Ice
My question was answered at WUWT. Its a satellite data outage (SSM/I), per NSIDC. And I figured out the other bit, that.indicate 'unfiltered'.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2010 on Arctic Recovery Crock of the Week at Arctic Sea Ice
What's with the diving Norsex area and extent? Pen failure or a gust of wind? And, what's the upward bit on both plots?
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2010 on Arctic Recovery Crock of the Week at Arctic Sea Ice
A similar story unfolds less frenetically on Cryosphere Today's sea ice comparison (>30% concentration) pairs. Just compare Aug 28ths to minimums (they're close). Then compare all four Aug 28ths to each other. 2010 has a much larger proportion of lower concentration (the red is 60%) ice.
Toggle Commented Aug 31, 2010 on End Zone 5: sea ice concentration at Arctic Sea Ice
The Alfred Wegener Institute's TIFAX (Thick Ice Feeding Arctic Export) August 20th news release discusses EM-Bird flights that will measure the thickness of the multi-year ice above Greenland...that is being exported through Fram Strait. The salt concentration in the Arctic Ocean has been kept up in the past with outgoing exported multi-year sea ice (low salinity, due to salt rejection) countering incoming (freshwater) precipitation and river flow. This can't be maintained in the future if there is less multi-year ice, in thickness as well as in extent.
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2010 on Race to Fram Strait 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Aug 25, 2010