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Chuck Simmons
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"When this was followed by an early heat wave in May (see here), the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas received a beating it never really recovered from during the rest of the melting season." I think that might be reading a bit much into it. Looks to me from Wipneus' graphs like after the initial mid-may warming spell, Beaufort stopped melting for awhile. While high pressure over the Beaufort should certainly crack the ice around the edges, it should otherwise mostly move the ice in a circle. This should tend to move thicker ice off the Archipelago and into the Beaufort and North Chukchi, while moving thinner ice off the Laptev toward the pole. So I'd kind of expect this weather pattern at this time of year to mostly help thicken the ice a bit.
Toggle Commented Apr 8, 2016 on Beaufort under early pressure at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven: "infinite GDP growth" is a difficult paradigm to eliminate because it is so attractive and so magical. Infinite GDP growth says that I can completely replace our carbon based energy infrastructure with Wind and PV while lowering energy costs so that I can desalinate ocean water (in an environmentally friendly fashion) so that we can continue to have agriculture in California, and so that I can have a backyard garden (even a lawn!) on the San Francisco peninsula. Infinite GDP growth is the only way I'm going to have my cake and eat it too. On the other hand, I think you can put together a strong argument that (1) growth that solves old problems inevitably produces new problems, and (2) as growth accelerates (The Singularity is Near), you have less time available to identify and solve problems before crashing into a wall. Navegante: I'm not worried about people on Neven's Blog and Sea Ice Forum calling me a "denier". I've trolled over at Watt's Up With That and the difference between the intellectual stimulation Neven's community provides and what Watt's community provides is quite remarkable. Interestingly, I think Watt's community gives Neven a lot of ammunition: a full 50% of the population seems to have a hard time seeing the looming problems and helping us steer around them. On the other hand, Neven's community gives Watt a lot of ammunition: there are a lot of deep thinkers that can see the shoals we are heading towards.
Toggle Commented Sep 16, 2014 on Climate disclaimer at Arctic Sea Ice
"a finite system can grow forever and will sooner or later run into limits." There are different levels of 'finite'. I have a finite amount of memory in my computer, but I can do a pretty fine job of simulating a Turing machine. Yeah, the heat death of the universe is coming, but there's a lot of energy we'll be able to consume before then. And many times it's hard to figure out where the limits are. Malthus thought we might run out of food, but we figured out how to increase production. Natural Gas was getting kinda expensive in the U.S. until some high oil prices pushed us into new technologies that will boom natural gas production for at least a few years. Renewable energy technologies, PV and Wind, which are based on manufacturing and not on mining are likely to have a much different growth rate than we've seen in the energy sector before. In California our perennial droughts and unsustainable mining of aquifers is pushing cities into full fledged water recycling. It's still looking like an open question whether agriculture will be decimated in California, or whether we will extend the California Aqueduct up to the MacKenzie River, or whether we will figure out that we can afford to purify sea-water into drinking water. So, yes, if you're growing too fast next to a near-by hard limit, you're going to have big problems. But we've got a lot more mental and labor resources at our disposal than the Eastern Islanders (or the Haitians) had. If we don't collapse in the next generation or two, we're likely to see a number of our current looming limits greatly recede. And it's not: "oh my god we're a consumer driven material society because corporate america has brainwashed the world"... It's more like: I like warm showers; I like being able to get a glass of water in the middle of the night without walking a mile down to the river. I like having a sprinkler system to keep my yard green and fruitful.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2014 on Climate disclaimer at Arctic Sea Ice
I would add a few possible scenarios to the Ice Free pre-requisite possibilities. How about a cold low sitting over the mouth of the MacKenzie in the Spring so that an ice dam keeps waters warming in the south for longer than usual leaving a 2014-laptev-like hole early in the season? How about a nice rainstorm and flooding in the Lena watershed in late spring to gush water earlier and in greater volume into the Laptev. How about a mild storm in late August at the edges of the arctic to blow tall waves across the open sea, cracking the far ice and making it more mobile. I like the point someone made about the soot. Soot that would end up on top of multi-year ice. And a nice hot high sitting over the northern Archipelago for a week might do wonders for the thick ice.
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
"Yesterday a location in BC got over 40C and 35C+ temps were registered in the NWT, this because of the current wacky jet. I'm starting to wonder about short-term fire-induced landscape type conversion of the boreal forest. Conversion to what, though?" Agriculture. With Chinese desertification and Indian monsoon failures, not to mention the permanent drought in California, Canada will come to the rescue and become the world's largest rice exporter.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
+SharedHumanity: The pine beetle infestation in the Western United States and Canada may offer insight into how rapidly flora and fauna re-establish themselves in areas offered gross insult. http://coloradoforestrestoration.org/CFRIpdfs/2011_SignsofRecovery_RMRS-CFRIBrief.pdf says "Forest structure (i.e., tree density and stand basal area) should return to pre-outbreak levels within 80 to 120 years" I would expect Colorado to be more resilient than the Canadian archipelago.
Toggle Commented Jul 22, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 5: low times at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm going with the unskilled statistical prediction of 4.0. 2014 has been following the 2012, 2011, and 2007 curves fairly well.
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Jun 26, 2014