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Courtney Smith
Trader, Author, Trainer...
Recent Activity
The oldest trading system is the venerable Dow Theory. Basically, it says that the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transportation averages must be in sync. In other words, both must make higher highs to be in a bull market. But if one makes a new high and the other does not, that divergence is worrying. That is the situation right now. The Industrials just made new all time highs but the Trannies, as they are called, have not. It doesn’t make sense because you need to transport the good that the Industrials are producing. So when one of the two... Continue reading
Posted yesterday at Traders' Library Blog
Don’t get me wrong. This is a bull market. But some of the foundations are crumbling. For example, the NASDAQ hit a new high last week. But the Advance Decline line did not. The AD Line is composed of all the stocks in the NASDAQ but the NASDAQ itself is heavily weighted toward just a few large cap stocks like AAPL and AMZN. The old analogy is that the NASDAQ is the generals and the AD Line is the soldiers. You cannot have a successful bull market without both. Now this does not mean that the stock market is about... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Traders' Library Blog
We are very pleased to announce a unique and amazing new online course, Options Paychecks. This course has one purpose and one purpose only: how to create an income from options trading. Period. Here are some of the strategies we will show you: Covered Call Crushers Ratio Writes Naked option writing Butterflies Diagonal spreads Calendar spreads More Each module goes into depth on when to use the strategy and how to use the strategy. We go into depth because the depth we go the more money you will make and the easier it till be to make money. I’m the... Continue reading
Posted 7 days ago at Traders' Library Blog
You need income. We all do. I’ve put together a free video training explaining some cool strategies that can create income for you. Watch it here. You will love it! You should also send this email to your friends so they can watch it to. They will thank you. You don’t have to even give me your email. The video explains strategies that can make you money in a consistent manner. See you on the video click here... Thanks! Good high income trading, Courtney Smith Support@OptionsUniversity.com Continue reading
Posted Feb 13, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
We are very pleased to announce a unique and amazing new online course, Options Paychecks. This course has one purpose and one purpose only: how to create an income from options trading. Period. Here are some of the strategies we will show you: Covered Call Crushers Ratio Writes Naked option writing Butterflies Diagonal spreads Calendar spreads More Each module goes into depth on when to use the strategy and how to use the strategy. We go into depth because the depth we go the more money you will make and the easier it till be to make money. I’m the... Continue reading
Posted Feb 6, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
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I always felt that the two main characters of Star Trek represented different archetypes. Captain Kirk is heroic. Mr. Spock was not. Captain Kirk was emotional. Mr. Spock was not. Captain Kirk would trade stocks. Mr. Spock would trade options. Here’s why. Options require that you be logical. You need to think through a couple of extra steps. But options can do far more than stocks every could. Kirk wouldn’t want to wait to think even though it would make a lot of money or even create a steady income. Instead, he would want to make the grand gesture. Captain... Continue reading
Posted Jan 30, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near.” So said Jim Morrison. Many people are freaking out about the potential escalation of the situation with Iran. I’m not freaking out but my job is to control the risk of all my trades that I have on. And that includes geopolitical risks like the situation with Iran. My experience over almost 50 years of trading is that things go back to normal pretty quickly so that is what we should assume will happen here. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t control our risk of a major conflagration breaking out. So... Continue reading
Posted Jan 11, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
This is the third in a series of how I picked 7 of the top 10 stocks of the 2010s. You can read Part 1 here and Part 2 here. The next thing I look for is that the analysts are increasing their expectations for the coming year’s earnings. I call this EPS Trends. The price of the stock goes up as the analysts raise their estimates. For example, Mega Broker was looking for $1.00 per share earnings in the coming year. But now they look for $1.10. In effect, they just made the stock 10% cheaper. So more people... Continue reading
Posted Jan 8, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
Yesterday, I listed the top 10 performing stocks of the 2010s. I pointed out that I had picked 7 of them and my clients and I made money from those picks. This email is Part 2 of a series of emails about how I find such great stocks. Yesterday, talked about how earnings growth is the most important factor driving stock prices. Today, I want to take this a little further. You need to focus on the long term trend in earnings growth. The faster the better, all other things being equal. But the biggest jumps in stock price come... Continue reading
Posted Jan 7, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
I recently ran across a list of the 10 best performing stocks of the 2010s. Here they are: Domino’s Pizza Netflix MarketAxess Dexcom Exact Sciences Abiomed Broadcom Jazz Pharmaceuticals United Rentals Align Technology Turns out that I invested in 7 of those 10. I didn’t get Domino’s, MarketAxess, or Exact Sciences but got all the rest. My clients also profited hugely by my recommending those 7 stocks. How did I pick them? How did I create such an incredible track record? The key is to only focus on what actually moves stock prices. So many people focus on things that... Continue reading
Posted Jan 6, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
The world has been transformed over the last ten years. The US is now one of the world’s largest oil producers and is now energy independent. The whole world has been transformed. But it has come at a great cost. Oil companies borrowed massively to pay for the drilling, transportation, and processing of all the shale oil created by fracking. That debt is coming due. There is over $200 billion in debt coming due in the next four years with over $40 billion in 2020. There is no clear way they can repay that debt. There is not enough free... Continue reading
Posted Jan 4, 2020 at Traders' Library Blog
Dear [[contact.first_name|default:'Friend"]], One key way that we will make income from options is from time decay. Options decline in value every day. That is called time decay. The fancy name is theta. Yes, the price of the option may go up but tie decay is a headwind to the price going up. You see, options are a wasting assets. Everyday that goes by they go down in value. So we can make money by being short options. Short Options means we sell them first and then buy them back, hopefully cheaper than we should them. This is also called writing... Continue reading
Posted Dec 27, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
We can trade to create an income or to create wealth. This email shows you methods for creating and income. One of the great things about options is that you have so much flexibility over what you can do with them. They are the best instrument to create income. Hopefully enough income that you can quit your job! Here is a partial list of the strategies that I use to create income: 1. Covered Calls 2 Double Diagonals 3. Naked writes 4. Broken wing butterflies 5. Modified butterflies 6. Short straddles and Strangles 7. Credit spreads Every day, I spend... Continue reading
Posted Dec 26, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
Gratitude is important. It creates a positive mindset. It makes you happy. So I want to express my deepest gratitude to you. I get up every morning thinking how grateful I am to have you in my life. You provide so much value in my life and I want to thank you for that. You are the best Christmas gift ever. So, thank you. I appreciate you and am grateful for you. Thanks! Good grateful trading, Courtney Continue reading
Posted Dec 25, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
Dear friend, I’ve spoken all over the world. I often ask the crowd how many of them are overpaid. I’ve asked over 100,000 people this question and I never get anyone to raise their hand. Not surprising! Until one day, I was in India and one lady raised her hand. I was surprised but kept on teaching. I then asked the audience how many people love their job. I usually get a few hands go up. This same lady raised her hand. Now I’m thinking what kind of job does she have that she loves and is overpaid. So I... Continue reading
Posted Dec 24, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
Let me bust one huge myth about option trading I hear so many things that drive me completely nuts! Here’s one of them. I hear all the time that people should only sell options never buy them. They give the reasons that 70% of options expire worthless and selling options must be the best way to make money because that is what the professionals do. Actually both reasons are correct: Most options expire worthless Market makers, not all professional, tend to be short options But the conclusion is absolutely wrong! Let me explain. Most options expire worthless because they only... Continue reading
Posted Dec 23, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
Let me bust one huge myth about option trading I hear so many things that drive me completely nuts! Here’s one of them. I hear all the time that people should only sell options never buy them. They give the reasons that 70% of options expire worthless and selling options must be the best way to make money because that is what the professionals do. Actually both reasons are correct: Most options expire worthless Market makers, not all professional, tend to be short options But the conclusion is absolutely wrong! Let me explain. Most options expire worthless because they only... Continue reading
Posted Dec 23, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
We were sitting in the Four Seasons restaurant in the iconic Seagrams Building in Manhattan. The room is cool. A pool a few feet away. Original Picasso on the all. A place for power. Deals were being made all around us. I was a bit shocked when he told me that. I asked him what had happened. The gentleman I was talking to was a portfolio manager for his own company. His flagship fund was a fund of funds invested in only portfolio managers that had made at least 25% per year over the previous 5 years. It was very... Continue reading
Posted Dec 19, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
We were sitting in the Four Seasons restaurant in the iconic Seagrams Building in Manhattan. The room is cool. A pool a few feet away. Original Picasso on the all. A place for power. Deals were being made all around us. I was a bit shocked when he told me that. I asked him what had happened. The gentleman I was talking to was a portfolio manager for his own company. His flagship fund was a fund of funds invested in only portfolio managers that had made at least 25% per year over the previous 5 years. It was very... Continue reading
Posted Dec 18, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
One of the key reasons I smoked the competition was risk management. The psychology of trading is the most important for trading success. Risk management is number two. Everybody knows that you should put a stop loss on all your trades. You need to control the risk on every trade. That is elementary. But few people put a cap on the whole risk in the portfolio. I call this a Daily Risk Limit. I think I first came upon this concept while trading for a major financial institution in New York. Basically, if you lost a certain amount in one... Continue reading
Posted Dec 16, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
I’ve been talking about investing using a global macro approach. I got a nice email after a blast I sent out earlier this week: “Courtney, I couldn't agree more!!! Your Macro Reports are the Best stuff I've ever heard on Global Economics!!! And that's why I asked John Duke to include them in my package, and he agreed, I'm looking forward to learning more, I can't tell you how much I appreciate your study and insight, thanks Bob” I really appreciate the kind words! It’s is always gratifying when someone reads my analysis and gets something out of it and... Continue reading
Posted Dec 13, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
There is a trading strategy called Pairs Trading. Here’s how to do it. Basically you find two stocks that are similar. You want them in the same industry. Ford and GM would be a good example. They are very similar stocks in the same industry. The strategy is to buy one and sell the other in equal dollar quantities. So you would buy $10,000 of GM and sell short $10,000 of Ford. That way, you don’t care about the price of the stocks, just the relationship of them. Over time, they will go up or down but at different rates.... Continue reading
Posted Dec 10, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
How I Became the #1 Ranked Hedge Fund Manager, Part 1 I ran a hedge fund called the Macro Fund and at the end of three years was ranked the #1 global macro fund in the world by Altvest. That meant that I outperformed people like George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and so on. How did I do that? First, note that I was the #1 global macro fund, not real estate or private equity or distressed debt or whatever. Global macro is the style where you trade all over the world looking at the big trends in global economics... Continue reading
Posted Dec 9, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
I’ve put together a short free video explaining the repo crisis and how it affects you. Click here to watch. Continue reading
Posted Sep 26, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog
The stock market got hammered over the last couple of days. What’s going on? Why did it drop? Most importantly what should you do now? I’ve put together a short video where I show exactly what is going to happen over the next few weeks. Click here to watch it. I’ve been calling for a major bear market. Is this the beginning of it? I answer that question in the video as well. I’ve uploaded the video here so you can watch for free. I also tell you exactly what to do right now! Click here to watch the video... Continue reading
Posted Aug 6, 2019 at Traders' Library Blog