Kevin O'Neill thank you for your comments. My prejudice stands, apologies for that. PIOMAS is an abbreviation that stands for Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Thank you, I do know what modeling means, it's a model and model outputs are never measurements, only guestiments. The model is only 10 years old in real time [?] and post predicts ice thickness for the previous 30 years from data which was different to that used from 2003 with Grace satellite incorporation and was different to that after 2007 when the satellite failed and they used a proxy [model] algorithm for the input to the model[?] "Since winter and the disappearance of the sun will fill the arctic with sea ice, the full effect of warming can only be seen at the fall minimum." Please, warming [from the sun] occurs every day of the year, summer and winter.Hence the full effect of warming should be seen every day of the year. The degree of warming should be seen at every point of the chart. That is why a chart showing the anomaly for each month for the year is the fair, honest and open way to discuss if warming is occurring year round. [such charts, by the way, our host may have posted one in the past, show that sea ice extent is down in all months, but probably not much in winter]. "My graph is the Arctic Sea ice extent 30% or greater (DMI)which is a cross between extent and volume...". I said I liked this graph, just as Mr Gates has chosen his four as one of the most salient in terms of understanding what is really happening. By extent I meant the traditional sea ice extent graph which is a 15% graph. By volume I meant the piomass estimate. The 30% graph shows a thicker concentration of ice. More concentration means more volume of ice in the measured sea extent [not data, just physics]. So the DMI 30% graph is a de facto cross between extent and volume. Unless you think that ice is 2 dimensional.

“The really important question is to know how much warmer it will be and how fast this is likely to happen as this determines a realistic and sensible cause of action.” Chief, thanks for entering the lions den on your sea surface estimate recently, I hope it does go as high as you say but it might need a year longer Apropos this topic it explains why no one side can win an unwinnable argument. The really important question is when will we take a cold downturn and for how long. the facts are that it will take a number of numbers [3 only] to move in the direction of global cooling for a small number of years [4 definitely but even 2 would be great] to shift the weight of the public to a mainstream sceptical view [right or wrong] despite all the good arguments on either side . While the surface temperature and sea heat content rise and the Arctic Sea ice extent remains low all considered sceptical arguments fail and if it cools all AGW arguments fail. History shows such a downturn will occur at least 3 times in a century and it may well happen now and is much more likely the longer we go [inevitable] which makes being on the denier side the better place to be this year, this decade and this century. the 30% Danish ice graph is now breaking free laterally emphasising Mr Solomon's otherwise dubious point

4.1 seems about right. effect of last El Nino 3 years ago wearing off should be cooling for next 3 years with La Nina inputs not to mention all that northern hemisphere snow cover cooling things down.