Neven: just to clarify - I can't log in at ASIF. I have tried now a number of different times, always get 'timed out' message. Has my session timer somehow defaulted to a low seconds value, or zero? Just when I have the spare time and energy to contribute, I can't log in. btw, Although I now rarely log in here, in this blog, I do lurk a lot just to keep up to date. I need to thank you and all your contributors for doing such a marvellous job.

Neven: looks like another bug at ASIF. getting message on 2 or 3 tries with both http and https - Your session timed out while posting. Please go back and try again. If it's only me that sees the message I'll double-check my computer and web settings, but I can log in elsewhere, and here, with no problems.

Neven: if your contributors sign up, if only temporarily, they will be able to post images etc. Folks like Sigmetnow were doing such a grand job keeping bang up to date with info. If it was a hack, I hope you nail the b$%$%. On topic: be ready for your words about upturns to be misused by the usual suspects. Oh yes, isn't the trend line the straight one and not the squiggly one? ;-) "Of course, the trend line on the PIOMAS sea ice volume anomaly graph has shot up some more:"

Neven: I came here as soon as I saw the ASIF was not available. If it's a hack, it's evil. People have been relying on the hurricanes thread to know when to evacuate, where to go etc. Just while the ASIF is unavailable I am inviting all your ASIF hurricane contributors to make use of my blog to post updates. http://www.science20.com/patrick_lockerby/hurricane_information_updates-225908 I hope this helps you, your contributors, and above all: the people in harm's way.

Nearly forgot: the fires in Greenland. Warmer seasons make plants grow faster and dry out faster, at least, that is what I observe locally. (Kent, UK) It is notable that the bigger fire appears to be burning around a lake. Started accidentally by a hunter or fisherman, perhaps.

Hi all. Daniel - it's nice to be remembered, thanks. At grave risk of re-railing the interesting off-topic stuff, I'm with Jim Hunt: "Actually the best place to look for such things is the Petermann Gletscher thread over on the ASIF: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,53.msg122402.html#msg122402" Although very busy with legal and other non-cryosphere stuff I still study satellite images and ponder over the dynamics of ice in motion. I even post here and on the forum once in a blue moon. btw: cryosphere - good name. What I read about what is happening to the Arctic and the ecosphere makes me want to cry. :-( In conclusion: everyone here has something valid to say. I am a great believer in synergy, which means that I value all opinions because it helps to circumscribe a topic. For example: clathrates. For all we know there could be some skulking away out of sight under the floor of the fjord. hth :-)

CO2 has also been correctly called "carbonic acid in the air" by Arrhenius in his 1896 paper." Bill, at that time CO2 was variously called carbon dioxide, carbonic acid gas or carbonic acid, sometimes in the same paper. As for CO2 - ocean equilibrium, Arvid G Hogbom in his 1895 paper on carbon cycles put forward this theory: 8 Carbon dioxide can be considered to be supplied to the atmosphere chiefly through the following processes: 1) volcanic emissions, together with the following geological phenomena, 2) combustion within the higher air layers of carbonaceous meteors, 3) organic substances burning and decaying, 4) decomposition of carbonate rocks, 5) liberation of the carbon dioxide absorbed in sea-water as a result of temperature increase or reduction in atmospheric CO2 and partial pressure, 6) liberation of mechanically entrapped carbon dioxide in rocks when they decompose by weathering etc. Read more >> http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/carbon_cycles_by_arvid_g_hoegbom-196827

An increase in average wind speed tends to be accompanied by an increase in gustiness. The speed of wind gusts can be many times greater than the average speed. A new patent law ruling in the Court of Appeal contains this gem at paragraph 100: "the evidence given by Professor Leith in his first and second reports to the effect that wind speed and gusts are not independent of each other and that an increase in average wind speed tends to be accompanied by an increase in gustiness." Read more here: http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2017/5.html or here http://www.science20.com/node/224835

Elisee Recluse says: "they are lying and they know they're lying." "The only motivation I can see for this behavior is greed." "These people are deliberately manufacturing elaborate lies to confuse and mislead ..." I would love to tell you all about my struggle with such people, but it is sub judice. I plan to reveal all when it is 'done and dusted', as we say in England. Re: Monty Python - big fan! I saw the parrot sketch performed live by an amateur dramatics group in Riyadh. The replacement was a camel!

" ... see the dark red line on the right side of the graph which should be fairly easily to spot):" Now look how much lower it is on the left! In both graphs.

Hans: it was not my intention to suggest electrodeposition as a means to extract vast quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere. What I intended to suggest was that coastal protection methods could be adapted to slow down the export of sea ice. Rather than use CO2 intensive concrete, artificial limestone could be made using quite trivial amounts of electricity generated by wind or solar power. We are looking at kilowatts here. Any artificial reef or other obstruction can tip the balance in favour of the longer retention of shore-attached or bay-trapped ice. Just as barriers are used to reduce the force of water in rivers, so barriers can be used to slow ice export. Even small floating barriers can be effective, such as are used on rivers to trap oil and debris. The only obstacle to ice loss mitigation is the fact that the oil industry sees ice loss as a good thing. Were that not so, by way of example, even a partial barrier across the Kara Strait would retain over 800,000 sq.km of ice. Engineering solutions are possible, but political backing remains improbable. http://www.coastalwiki.org/wiki/Shore_protection,_coast_protection_and_sea_defence_methods

Friends, netizens, Arcticians, lend me your ears. "I think we can all agree that Arctic sea ice loss is a very serious issue, perhaps the most important on the globe right now, collectively speaking. And that's the core of this blog." Well said, Neven. The Arctic climate has almost certainly entered a new phase. That is no cause for excessive worry. The climate system, like all natural systems which contain an element of chaos, will enter a new valley of relatiive stability. We must remember that in the past when the climate went from one stable regime to another it was without human interference. Previously, variations in solar output and variations in orbit, tilt etc. produced effects which depended solely on natural rates of, e.g. ice growth / melt and CO2 emissions / uptake. We are now in a climate phase which has for long been influenced by human activities. Even before the rise of agriculture our ancestors were almost certainly burning peat, rather than wood alone. We humans have been affecting the atmosphere, hence the climate, for thousands of years, and old habits die hard. But our current stage of global knowledge increases the chance that our global output of greenhouse gases will decline as we switch to wind, wave and solar power. If Trump continues with his anti-science and anti-China policies he will ensure that the world will turn more and more to China for leadership in science and technology. Solar panels, wind turbines and wave power devices will continue to be made, just not in the USA. As to the loss of Arctic ice. Any politician with an ounce of common sense will eventually come to realise that there can be no economy without food production. As soon as it becomes obvious that global food production is impacted severely and negatively by Arctic warming you may expect to see a great deal of money poured into the search for solutions. One possible solution is to use solar or wind power to create, by electrochemical means, carbonate rock in the sea in such places as will tend to slow the export of Arctic ice and the import of warm waters. Remember: human ingenuity knows no bounds. If we can put men on the moon we can sure as shooting put rocks in the Arctic. In conclusion, let me ask my fellow Arcticians to please not waste valuable time arguing - that is what politicians are paid to do. ;-)

I have just published a new blog 'Something is wrong in the Arctic'. Neven's followers are specifically invited to exchange comments over at science20.com while Neven is taking his well-earned sabbatical. http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/something_is_wrong_in_the_arctic-180763

Andy says: "I can fully understand how Neven feels, having suffered from burnout too. Pushing against an intransigent industry and media that really really does not want to do anything about the problem and controls so much of modern life can be soul destroying." Ditto. As a lifelong sufferer from depression I found it impossible to keep up my Arctic watching while at the same time trying to cope with two very time-consuming legal problems. Hans: understanding Antarctic ice loss is as easy as A B C - From a NASA press release about Larsen B - https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-study-shows-antarctica-s-larsen-b-ice-shelf-nearing-its-final-act "NASA uses the vantage point of space to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth's interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing." And then along comes a US President-elect who denies the reality of global warming ...

viddaloo - that's a good analogy. May I suggest a modification suggestive of albedo change, namely inflation. Say you inherit €9 million and carelessly spend €100,000 a month, and inflation is running away so that each month you need x% more money. The exact rate of inflation, which in any reality is fluctuating, determines the point in the death spiral when your last beer token is gone. Now, you could complicate matters further by adding in a nice bit of oscillation as e.g. daily tidal forces modified by lunar time, but let's not carried away. :-)

"I remember the days when we were in the class room, following PatrickLogicman, I will thank both you and Patrick for what it resulted in:" Espen: thank sincerely you for that very kind comment. I was able to devote my time to my legal problems rather than Arctic Ice blogging thanks to Neven having created such a great resource. Now that Neven is taking a sabbatical, and now that my legal problems are nearing a just conclusion, I am trying once more to blog about climate science. I have an English translation of an historical paper in the pipeline. Best regards, Patrick.

Neven, thanks for the honourable mention. :-) I recently started blogging again. I saw the Daily Fail article today about the Antartctic and my blood boiled. Links to the facts in my latest article - http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/great_scott_climate_change_deniers_accept_models-180722 Yes, I know, it's not Arctic news but hey! We need to keep the unscientific opposition on its toes. Enjoy your sabattically enhanced life, Neven!

Enjoy yourself! As a fellow sufferer from depression you have my simpathy. Sympathy even. :-)

Here's a great overview of the facts about cllimate science with a huge number of links out. In post-election media, colorful thread develops on science—mainly climate science http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.8196 It could take you a week to follow all those links, but if you can only spare half a day you may like - http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/back_to_square_1_first_steps_in_climate_science-180677

@Hans "denial grandiose fantasies blossom" You can take that to the bank. Recommended read - President Elect Trump - Why Climate Change Is No Longer A Political Issue Outside The US http://www.science20.com/robert_inventor/president_elect_trump_why_climate_change_is_no_longer_a_political_issue_outside_the_us-180675 Don't miss video - "The Age of Stupid" in the comments below the article.

The current anomalous warmth in the Arctic will make itself felt in spring. In the days of sail the thick sea ice would get ever colder in winter and needed to rise by many degrees to reach 0 deg.C. The closer the temperature of the ice is to 0 deg.C, the sooner it will begin to melt in spring. Current temperatures will almost certainly mean a fast melt onset in Arctic spring. “It’s about 20C [36 degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia,” Jennifer Francis, an Arctic specialist at Rutgers University, said by email Wednesday. “The Arctic warmth is the result of a combination of record-low sea-ice extent for this time of year, probably very thin ice, and plenty of warm/moist air from lower latitudes being driven northward by a very wavy jet stream.” Source - Washington Post Nov 17. "there is no current explanation for the heavy chill in Siberia, amid fears that it could be used by climate change deniers as a counter-argument to stop steps that could be taken to address global warming." Source - ibtimes.co.in Nov 19 If the 'hot pole - cold siberia' trend continues it could lead to an enhanced siberian 'pole of cold'. I wonder if it is possible that a more open Arctic ocean could lead to higher precipitation in Siberia. Perhaps a few consecutive years of snow over a wide area which does not melt in summer could trigger a new ice age? Who knows? How an ice age begins. A drop in average temperature in a northern latitude (e.g. siberia) means that snow does not melt in summer. As the snow pack grows, the bottom layer turns to ice. Year on year the volume of ice grows and flows. The albedo feedback stabilises the 'pole of cold' and the glacier grows unchecked.

Hi, Neven. I just found out how to correct the user name. Can't find how to change the image. I would be grateful if you could copy my image from science20.com in case I find time to comment more. http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box

Hi, all! I'm signed in as PasserBy because for some unknown reason Yahoo hates me. I'm Patrick aka logicman. I've been overly busy for some time with legal matters - I won't bore you with details, but I have "lurked" quite a bit. Be concerned. As global weirding continues we now have political weirding. Who was the first UK politician to meet the Don? Farage. He of the off-his-head conspiracy-denialist-leaning stance. By meeting Farage, who is no diplomat, before our P.M. or our ambassador, the Don has snubbed, not only our P.M. but our democracy. Farage snugs up to his thinkalikes but is very undiplomatic to his opponents,as e.g. the video below. Even worse, this meeting was a mutual admiration echo-chamber for two climate change deniers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFpzaQPKC54 Now, was soomeone saying something about vanishing ice?

For some unfathomable reason, Yahoo has me down as PasserBy. I am logicman, also known under my top secret matrix name of Patrick Lockerby.

Well said, Bill. Hello all. After an absence from blogging due to RSI I'm back, as someone or other famously said. In case any of you missed these: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22271972 http://o.canada.com/2013/05/16/melting-glaciers-in-canadas-arctic-stoking-sea-level-rise/ I'm getting back into the swing of writing again at science20.com - I may even write something Arctic themed. Meanwhile, I expect a very rapid loss of ice once the sun gets busy on all that smashed up 1st year ice. Yes folks, Arctic open water is recovering nicely. ;-)