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Why would demand for liquid fossil fuels decrease for the light land vehicle fleet but keep growing for the heavy fleet? For trucks, taxis and buses, renewable technologies are even more economical than for personal cars: * The greater vehicle use of commercial vehicles offsets the vehicle cost faster * Fleets allow economies of scale such as electric battery swapping and dedicated refueling or recharging stations * Trucks and buses have predictable locations for refueling or charging * Cities want to reduce particulate and noise pollution by trucks and buses * Frequent stops by city buses, delivery truck and garbage trucks allow use of capacitors recharged at every stop Some of these considerations also apply to ships. As for air transport, many start-ups plan to produce short-distance electric planes. Long-distance plane carriers have mentioned they will try using renewable fuels. But I would guess their use of fossil fuels will grow unless it is regulated. There is heated research in renewable electricity generation and storage, and costs are decreasing faster than the improvements in efficiency of internal combustion engines. The cost of fuel extraction will grow in the medium term, even if it decreases in the short term with the opening of new areas for drilling. It's up to us all to demand of our governments to outlaw new oil and gas drilling, penalize drilling accidents and pollution, subsidize research and deployment of renewable energy and building insulation, and mandate improvements in efficiency.
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Feb 5, 2018