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Neven:
"Long story short: Even though 2016 has been breaking records all year so far, as things currently stand, it will take special weather conditions for it to break any records near the end of the melting season."
I've seen the polls but I'm curious to know how much of an extent you think we're likely to have come mid September.
2016 melting momentum, part 2
Happy Solstice, everyone! Credit: NASA/Kathryn Hansen The previous post on melting momentum was running long, so here's an addition dealing with compactness, the final piece of information we have to assess the amount of melting momentum. Just before the start of July, the month of big melt. Fi...
Yes, Jim, I've seen you there.
I'm currently debating with them on their thread "Atmospheric Temperatures Plummeting At A Record Pace".
I'm sure they'll change their tune come September.
:-)
Persistent Arctic and sub-Arctic warmth
There are a couple of reporters out there who write really good articles about the Arctic, and Alaska Dispatch News' Yereth Rosen is one of them. Just a couple of days ADN published this article of hers on the extreme temperature anomalies in the Arctic this year. Below is an excerpt, and below ...
I think it's time to harass Tony Heller. :-)
Persistent Arctic and sub-Arctic warmth
There are a couple of reporters out there who write really good articles about the Arctic, and Alaska Dispatch News' Yereth Rosen is one of them. Just a couple of days ADN published this article of hers on the extreme temperature anomalies in the Arctic this year. Below is an excerpt, and below ...
Ostepop:
"There was a big change after the incredibly huge 1997 El Nino, after which the patterns changed."
Ostepop, take a look at 2010's El Nino here http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2013_v5.6.png
ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
@Fryingpan136:
"When I clicked on the link I was redirected to a porn site."
Yikes!!! It works perfectly for me on IE 7, Firefox, Google Chrome and Safari. Try another browser.
Are scientists conservative about sea ice?
An interesting entry on the NSIDC Icelights blog (hat-top to GreenOctopus) that I also indirectly discussed a couple of months ago: Are scientists conservative about sea ice? Guest post by Walt Meier, NSIDC Scientist Arctic sea ice set a record minimum extent in September 2012, far below the...
Below is a sampling from Steven Goddards "Real Science" site. If they ridicule us we can just link them to this jewel:
Terra Incognita says:
September 3, 2011 at 10:57 pm
[Steven Goddard said:] “New ice is starting to form in the Arctic, and it looks like 2011 has a possibility of becoming the shortest melt season (time from peak to minimum) on record. Longer polar melt seasons are a fundamental tenet of global warming theory.”
[TI replies:]I see. The shortest melt season on record will give us the second smallest ice extent on record. That’s a lot of melt for such a short season. I guess the shorter them der seasons get the more ice will melt. (We could use some animated laughing smileys).
Reply
Steven Goddard says:
September 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm
You missed the part about MYI doubling over last year and quadrupling since 2008.
http://www.real-science.com/shortest-arctic-melt-season-record#comment-49617
Are scientists conservative about sea ice?
An interesting entry on the NSIDC Icelights blog (hat-top to GreenOctopus) that I also indirectly discussed a couple of months ago: Are scientists conservative about sea ice? Guest post by Walt Meier, NSIDC Scientist Arctic sea ice set a record minimum extent in September 2012, far below the...
This link will take you directly to the video on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkpFNteryX8&list=UUtZdUYUZr493AUh_EInBYxQ&feature=player_detailpage
Greenland Ice Sheet: "Starting to Slip"
Peter Sinclair from the ClimateCrocks blog has produced a new video for the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media with some good speakers:
Is there a thread listing all the predictions for an ice free Arctic by those who post here? It would be interesting to see who has what opinions.
Are scientists conservative about sea ice?
An interesting entry on the NSIDC Icelights blog (hat-top to GreenOctopus) that I also indirectly discussed a couple of months ago: Are scientists conservative about sea ice? Guest post by Walt Meier, NSIDC Scientist Arctic sea ice set a record minimum extent in September 2012, far below the...
I hope this is not off topic. These are a couple of videos that could be instructive for the non-professional general audience on the subject of Methane.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKyRHDFKEXQ
and more dramatic,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRLD_vH5Efo (fast forward to the 3:30 - 4:31 minute mark.)
Arctic time bombs
While keeping an eye on day-to-day data and speculating about whether 2013 is going to overcome the odds and break last year's records, one tends to forget about the wider implications and what this actually is all about. A tree is incredibly interesting, but in the end it's all about the fore...
@ Allen W. McDonnell
"... a complete absence of Arctic sea ice in early summer could be the trigger to flip the northern hemisphere into the hothouse mode just as it was when last the Earth had 400 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere."
Allen, what time period are you referring to? If it was over 3 million years ago then you have to take into account that the isthmus of Panama had not yet formed. That changed the ocean currents probably contributing to a warmer Earth.
I'm not saying there wouldn't be a transition just that it could be different (milder?) from the last time we had the same amount of CO2.
Second storm
There's another storm brewing in the Arctic, the second this year after PAC-2013, the persistent Arctic cyclone that stayed in place for weeks on end and caused the first half of the melting season to be very slow. And also the second storm after last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, the iconic im...
Then there's Joe Bastardi whose real name doesn't need much imagination to spoof. Marc Morano only needs one letter in his name switched. ;)
The Naming of Arctic Cyclones
The Arctic is about to welcome another big cyclone. Though probably not as large, intense and long-lasting as last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, it is rather intruiging to see a cyclone of similar magnitude occur so soon after the last one. It makes one wonder whether the Arctic will be seeing mo...
@fryingpan136:
"...what are the likely long term climatic consequences of an ice free Arctic?"
Warmer ocean -> more evaporation -> more intense storms/flooding -> crop damage.
The Naming of Arctic Cyclones
The Arctic is about to welcome another big cyclone. Though probably not as large, intense and long-lasting as last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, it is rather intruiging to see a cyclone of similar magnitude occur so soon after the last one. It makes one wonder whether the Arctic will be seeing mo...
It would be simple just to assign them letters. The letters would stand out more than numbers. Example 2013-A etc.
The Naming of Arctic Cyclones
The Arctic is about to welcome another big cyclone. Though probably not as large, intense and long-lasting as last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, it is rather intruiging to see a cyclone of similar magnitude occur so soon after the last one. It makes one wonder whether the Arctic will be seeing mo...
@ R. Gates:
"...that those of us who might be named, or have a friend or family named "Irene", or "Gloria" or "Bob" or "Sandy", etc. would not take it personally to have a storms named after first names in our culture."
Yes, I thought of that but the cultural divide is to large to assume anything. Such naming would be done by a foreign culture with a history of negative interactions. It could very easily give the impression of ridicule
As to who to consult the elders should be the first and they should be consulted as a group.
The Naming of Arctic Cyclones
The Arctic is about to welcome another big cyclone. Though probably not as large, intense and long-lasting as last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, it is rather intruiging to see a cyclone of similar magnitude occur so soon after the last one. It makes one wonder whether the Arctic will be seeing mo...
We should consult with the Inuit people due to the possibility that they may be offended by the idea of having their names attached to storms that affect their lives adversely.
Much as I would like to see storms named after Monckton et al any official naming done by meteorologists would be subject to public pressure if they offend anyone. Such naming would amount to nothing more than a private joke.
The Naming of Arctic Cyclones
The Arctic is about to welcome another big cyclone. Though probably not as large, intense and long-lasting as last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, it is rather intruiging to see a cyclone of similar magnitude occur so soon after the last one. It makes one wonder whether the Arctic will be seeing mo...
@Paul Beckwith
"People forget that the Arctic stayed ice free quite happily year round in the past when the continents were in the same locations as today. The Arctic region supported lush forests and critters that required temperatures to remain above freezing. This flora and fauna adapted quite happily with months of total darkness and total lightness."
Are you implying that an ice free Arctic ocean will have no impact on civilization? Our civilization depends on agriculture which, unlike a natural ecosystem, is very fragile and susceptible to extreme short term changes.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
Does anyone know how much warmer an ice free ocean (3 months) will get?
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
Wayne: "you can go to the betting shop place a wager against anything they predict and get rich."
Usually, but beware the liar who sometimes comes up with a truth even if its accidental. ;-)
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
A question from a newbie/village idiot.
I've been tuning in to Bremen and Cryosphere concentration maps. What are the pros and cons of both of them? I appreciate the greater resolution of Bremen but I don't know how much of it is artefactual (yellows and greens)and how much of it is "real".
ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
@Bob Bingham:
"If we had a quick (quicker) break up of the Arctic ice, say down to 1 mill sq Km in five years it would seriously hamper food production in the North.
Not to get off topic but it might be a good idea for Neven to start a post on the consequences of the Arctic meltdown on our crops and its social impacts.
If this is real...
As usual, it's all about the if. Allow me to explain what this is about: In the first Arctic Sea Ice update of the 2013 melting season that was posted a couple of days ago, I announced that a cyclone was forecasted to move over the Arctic Basin and stay there for a while. It's been there for a c...
The Long Winter by John Christopher - more of a social commentary than sci fi though.
Coming up on June 7 is the movie After Earth. A father and son crash land on a post global warming earth and try to survive. In the words of the Father "Everything on this planet has evolved to kill humans."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZIt20emgLY
Russia abandoning ice station
Guest Post by R. Gates Russia has ordered an "urgent" evacuation of it's drifting ice station known as North Pole-40 that sits on top Arctic sea ice, because of disintegrating sea ice that is posing dangerous conditions to reseachers. This is one more indication that the thickness of the ice i...
Since we're on a roll here with Geo-engineering fantasies let me mention that science fiction writer Jerry Pournelle, in his book Oath of Fealty, came up with the idea of towing icebergs to supply household water to cities.
Won't do a damn for global warming but at least the faucets won't dry up.
;-)
Greenland “snow drought” spells trouble
Hat-tip to HeisenIceBerg over on the Forum. I think most of us vividly remember last year's events on and around Greenland. It started with albedo going down considerably, causing widespread melt - at one point involving practically all of the ice sheet's surface - ending in a record mass loss...
A suggestion,
The image of the Earth should not be split in two but whole and I would place the support and donate link on the bottom so it doesn't convey the thought that it's the first thing you want to get people's attention.
Off topic but out of curiosity, which languages do you translate?
Ch-ch-ch-changes
This one of the things I wanted to get done before the melting season started, because I won't have time for it then. That big red arrow points to the biggest change on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. In an effort to make it more visually appealing than just a bunch of links (I suck at graphic desi...
An idea for a non-animated image.
Four 'ice cube' images, side by side, each representing one decade.
Ice cube volume video
Andy Lee Robinson fired up his super computer to produce the video below, and during rendering composed the soundtrack to go with it: I think it's his best one so far.
"I wonder what drives this criminal evasiveness in so many climate scientists. To be frank, I think it is all about covering their butts."
I spoke to Julienne Stroeve on the issue of when the ice cap would melt at, of all places, Steven Goddards "Real Science" site. She said 2030/2035 for a partial meltdown.
I think that the phrase 'criminal evasiveness' is way too harsh but it does seems that there are two different species of Deniers.
Perception of the Arctic
There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears ...
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