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The world of linear projections is correct... until it isn't. Early PHEV designs like the Volt showed that the US could use no OIL at all for Transportation, reserving it for higer uses like plastics, pharamaceuticals etc. To do this, it would require most Transport to be PHEVs. The primitive, first generation PHEVs were only a tad too expensive, but newer generations with better components and better batteries are driving the price point toward equality, and its almost here now. The Volt was a technological Tour de Force, illustrating that th USA could exist solely on the present volume of bio-fuel which is principally gasahol, a primitive first generation bio-fuel. It showed that we did not have to return to the caves and Western civilization can continue and will prosper. The usage of OIL will plummet over the next decade, keeping prices low even as technology advance is increasing supply. Increasingly it appears that Dr. Gold and the Russian petro-geologists are correct. Petroleum is not principally a fossil fuel, but is an endemic and Abiotic product of planetary geology, helping to explain the presence of vast quantities on Solar planets other than Earth, that harbor no life. To all intents and purposes, pollution is the last generation's problem. ICEs now are as clean as BEVs. All it took was a 45-50 years of massive Research and Development. But it is done now, and the Third World will benefit for the First World showing how to do it and do it always cheaper. Indeed modern high efficient ICE designs can't afford to waste fuel creating pollution; and these clean designs will predominate even in the Third World. Meanwhile progress continues on the real, genuine, Solar Power developments at Cadarache France. There the First semi-commercial Fusion Power plant construction is continuing, and more than half completed.
The gentleman from Manitoba to put it politely has his cranium inserted between the cheeks of his own maximus gluteus. Today's lone driver move his 1.7 metric ton vehicle between his origin to his destination with less energy consumption than virtually all18th century tech 'mass transit'. The difference is the route between origin and destination. Mass Transit travels on pre-defined routes f,far from the optimum route for the individual travelor from suburb near to origin to center city and then a transfer can be affected to another such that will take the traveler near his destination. Together with a massive and profligate use of energy and waste of time. It doesn't take much to show how inefficient such obsolete technology truly is.
So now we have the end of the so-called Euro 'clean' Diesel, which was never clean. Yet the Green Phonies politicked for its admission and allowance in the USA. I'm glad they never succeeded. Even the EU VI standards just adopted, and equivalent to American standards in force since the 1980s, some thirty years ago, turn out to not be enforced and unmet in reality. Meanwhile by 2017, America will tighten its Air Quality standards once more, from clean to pristene Air. Tier III an SULEV II, (Fed and CARB versions) will require American cars to be as non-polluting as ZEV BEVs. I welcome its promulgation, except for the grafted on and completely unneeded CO2 regulations. CO2 concerns are turning out to be a complete hoax and farce, and merely a grab for power and raised taxes. Using its current T2B5 standards, still somewhat tighter than EU VI, America has produced EPA Air Quality Compliance in 2490 or so of the 2500 counties in America. It is well on the way to cleaning up the remaining handful of non compliant counties. America has won its Victory over Air pollution and all but the most ignorant true believers, like posters on these benighted pages, know it.
This is a significant advance in technology. HCCI operation improves the Internal Combustion engine in both its Otto and Diesel variants. Producing an Otto engine as fuel efficient as a Diesel, while allowing a much light weight diesel engine design, while in mostly CI diesel operation, achieves better fuel efficiency than either. It approaches the theoretical maximum of IC fuel efficiency. The typical Diesel engine is 200-600 Lbs heavier than an OTTO cycle equivalent. Removing 3-400 Lbs from a car's weight is very important to fuel economy. Plus it still achieves the fuel efficiency of diesel operation; and more economy by the weight reduction, is something all automakers covet.
bakerbd, Quoting an "average" of 30pbbv Ozone level is pure prevarication. It doesn't thunder and lightening every day in the USA. Averaging rainy days together with no precipitation days, to produce an average of 30 pbbv is utter nonsense. What is the natural background ozone level during and right after a thunderstorm? Now the EPA is giving the desert Southwest a hard time about dust storms. These natural events put too many particles in the Air, so the Air Quality falls due to excessive PM10, and PM2.5. Another example of EPA drivel, or perhaps the EPA remedy is to pave the deserts. The reality is that the USA has effectively met all the definitions for Clean Air set by the EPA back in the 1970s, when the Air Quality was unsatisfactory. Now those definitions/regulations have been met, for all but a half a dozen or so, of the 2500 counties in the USA. Even those accidents of geography like the LA Basin, withits air inversions, are much cleaner than before, and are probably cleaner than when the only inhabitants of "the Valley of Smokes" were American Indians. As Air Quality Compliance was achieved, we haven't declared Victory. The EPA, fearing no job justification and RIFs, has been moving the goalposts targets ever tighter. It is well past time to declare Victory and hold a National Celebration. Then we can refocus our national resources to other urgent unmet needs.
This is great progress in dramatically improving the efficiency and fuel economy of aircraft engines. These advances are showing up in investments to actually manufacture the key components, that make possible the improved engines.
You poor, poor Doomsday lads. You have to cluster together as fewer and fewer accept your teachings. Your Club of Rome Bible has turned out to be full of bad prophecies, and errors. The era of genuine clean and inexhaustible energy draws closer everyday, as progress on controlled Fusion accelerates from Science research, to Engineering of fusion power plant designs. The human population growth slows and stabilizes, as more and more billions join the western civilized technological world. Every effort you take to keep them dumb, ignorant and down on their subsistance farms fails, despite your every effort. Your effort to insist that every raw material is is danger of depletion, when all are becoming more inexpensive and widely available, even planetary hydrocarbons. Julian Simon has defeated and won his bet with Paul Erlich. Abiotic sources of hydrocarbons are forcing western geologists to agree with Russian geologists that petroleum is now being found and recovered at depths that predate any planetary life. So its not sourced from dynosaur remains, and is enormously more abundant than expected.
Once again the EPA Bureaucrats have to protect their jobs, because the country has cleaned up, and satisfied their regulations. So plant/fund, a couple of pre-ordained studies that question the present standard. Then move the goalposts. We are already tighter than what naturally occurs after a Thunderstorm. When the air is washed clean, and smells fresh from the Ozone created by the thunder and lightning. That is supposedly bad and unhealthy for you. What Utter bilge and drivel.
Only governmental boondoggling would waste a second with this pseudo-technology. Its like the nuclear alchemists who said they could make Gold. Everyone was happy until they said you start with Platinum... Call me back in a thousand years if you still need diesel. Until then I don't think the market wants to buy too much of this so-called answer at probably a $1000.00 per gallon. I am amazed at just how quickly some of y'all are to sign up for idiocy such as this. The need for any of this nonsense has largely disappeared. Hydrocarbons are not in any danger of shortage for a Millenia or more. So-called "renewables", despite enormous subsidies, simply don't scale in size or price, to other energy sources. The so-called CAGW need to limit GHG CO2 has disappeared as Dr. Ravell himself said back in the 1950s, when he was retracting the veracity of his earlier publications which are the only theoretical basis for CAGW in the first place. History has proven CAGW induced Global Warming to be wrong in its temperature raising power. Reality has proven it virtually nonexistent for approaching 20 years now. Yet you exist here in ever dwindling numbers predicting Doomsday; and wishing against reality for your no longer needed fantasy technologies to magically appear which contradict the Laws of Physics. It is stupid to "unburn" diesel, spend scandalous amounts of energy to make the raw ingredients for diesel. And then spend prodigious amounts of energy to reconstruct diesel hydrocarbon chains. All this to make a fuel you will then simply burn again.
CO2 gaseous sequestration is expensive and unproven and leaks. American Bio-sequestration feeding CO23 to our agriculture and silviculture is proven and effective. North America bio-sequesters not only every human and natural gram of CO2 emissions, but also a lot from China blowing in on the prevailing winds from the Pacific. IGCC technology is also one of the types of coal plants being phased out by the idiots in the left wing psuedo-totalitarian EPA. Talk about throwing out the baby, with the bath water. Thankfully, the EPA is going to have its budget emasculated, as Congress exercizes its constitutional power of the purse.
I note that there was no report of the US T2B5 compliant vehicles other than to state that the method used to evaluate them is clearly superior. I don'e even know or understand the bais for that declaration. We know that EU VI Compliance is somewhat phony only 6 or 7times allowed levels. We don't know what the compliance rate for tighter T2B5 was. WHY? Is it that these vehicles do in fact comply? We have the bald assertion that testing T2B5 methodology is superior. How so? Nothing is put into context. T2B5, tighter than EU VI, is being replaced in North America by T2B2 starting in 2017. T2B5 is a 30 year old standard, the so-called "clean" diesels from Europe couldn't meet. EU VI is the first real attempt to cleanse European Air Quality. Meanwhile the EU politicians have chased CO2 limitations, largely to justify new taxes and fund raising penalties. Toxic emissions WILL kill you; CO2 might raise temperatures a degree or two, two hundred years from now. But only if CAGW Warmists are correct. Which increasingly appears not to be the case.
c-i-c, The bleating by Euro car manufacturers is just that, Pure hokum Bleating, for which I share no sympathy. Meanwhile they daily produce cars for export to North America, that exceed the coming EU VI emission specs, by virtual light years. America hasn't allowed as lax toxic emissions regulation, as Europe's soon to be adopted EU VI, since the 1980s, 35 years ago, and has tightened even twice more, since then. Further North America, has adopted tightened, with even pure, pristene, air emissions requirements, following in a few more years, in the Level III / Tier 3 regs. The ONLY area where the EU emission regulation, is really tighter is CO2 "regulation". Where we are discovering it is entirely farcical. Dr. Ravelle's concerns about CAGW, expressed in his writings in the 1950's, were retracted by him as an error, in several later papers. Those early writings are the entire basis of a theoretical Danger of CAGW. That erroneous thesis has not only been proven false, but rather confirmed by recent Science, to be de minimus. Moreover it has been shown to be even harmful, as plant life has evolved in richer CO2 environments then now, and are actually starving for more CO2. The World is Greening before our eyes, as the satellites affirm; and the politicos, tax raisers and ignorant zealots the only remaining advocates for massive CO2 reductions. EU's CO2 regulations are more a tax raising gimmick, than a Clean Air issue. As for carbon soot emissions, EU is miles behind the rest of the developed world, as all the soot removing, sandblasting, scaffolding around your monuments attest. Imagine what that soot does to EU citizen's lungs, while EU governments continually support more such soot producing Diesels, without mandating Diesel cleanup as North America did with their ICEs. It would not be entirely amiss to assert that Diesels are now as clean as they are, which is not very, merely due to emission compliance access to North American markets. I welcome the EU's junior, entry-level, steps to genuine toxic emissions regulation. Someday the EU regulations will enter the 21st century, even. Maybe with hypothetical EU IX and EU X, regulations perhaps by 2050, or so. But in America the distinction between EV and ICE emissions end in 2017 Air Quality regulations. Then wide spread EV adoption will have to wait for equivalent technology for range and price, to be developed. I even agree with your somwhat wishful schedule to which I would add a half decade or more.
But the new regulations will soon require no difference in toxic emissions between EVs and ICEs vehicles. So we are no longer poisoning the atmosphere either way, and ICEs are more affordable right now. With a generational improvement in batteries in both range and cost, THAT will likely be the true dawn of the EV. Bureaucratic dweebs, enforcing objectives from 45 years ago, that don't apply anymore, do not make a sustainable market, nor create true progress. Most of the sweetners that the bureaucrats dreamed up, are about gone. Subsidies are expiring, and access to special road lanes are about played out. There is only the threat of the whip. But the will or political backing to use it is also expiring. CARB has backed down every time it threatened to do so in the past, and it gets easier to challenge every day. Even the false prophets of 18th century "Mass Transit" are coming to an end. It makes little sense to travel many miles out of the way in heavy multi-ton vehicles, which achieve abominal fuel economy, merely to get from close to where you are, to [hopefully] close to where you are going. It sort of made sense for hub & spoke where that was the destination,most of the time. Increasingly, both start and endpoint are crosstown, far from hubs, and not the way Mass Transit routes have been built or is arranged.
You still worship the EV as some kind of God, an an end in itself. In reality, the need is for non-polluting vehicles. Inadvertantly, CARB is forcing that very thing. The automakers discovered that their cleanup technology for the ICE was so good, that they could extend it a bit, at only marginal cost increases. They could offer vehicles that produced no more genuine toxic emissions than an EV. But without the obvious and grievous limitations of current technology EVs. Those limitations are primitive batteries, limited range, affordability, and resale depreciation based on battery replacement cost fear. They offered this technology in trade for some reasonableness in schedule and fuel economy. As usual CARB double crossed them; and demanded the technology, stiffened its unreasonable schedules, and tightened regulations adding limitations on CO2 output. In this instance, I fully support the CARB regulations. But only the tightened toxic emissions regs ,which the Federal EPA is following too. But it thoroughly undercuts the EV in its present primitive under-developed state. If an ICE is as emissions free as an EV, at half the cost, and without the range limitations, or cratered resale values, who will choose these primitive offerings, except zealots, who have lost sight of the true objective. The entire purpose of the EPA and CARB are over. EPA Air compliance has been met in all but a half dozen or so of the some 2500 counties in America. It will improve further with the tightened toxic emissions regs. Even now we could simply declare Victory for Clean Air and Water. Mission Accomplished. The need to prepare for "Peak Oil", has receded into a concern a Millenia in the future if then. Vast new Oil finds virtually throughout the World has completely undermined that concern, as well as the political concern of Oil Blackmail by Mid-East potentates whose beliefs are inimical to America. The CAGW concern is desolving into a farce. Instead of possible 6 degree warming from a doubling of trace gas CO2, it is turning out to be a trivial and harmless quarter to a third of a single degree, of possible warming, if that. In any case scientific research has discovered that North America has been found to be a CO2 sink, bio-sequestering every gram of human and non-human i.e. "natural" CO2 emissions. We even bio-sequester all that we receive on the prevailing winds from Eurasia. The Eurasians may have a problem, but our Job is more than finished. Our Bio-sequester is Greening America; and the the rising CO2 trace gas levels is Greening the World, a genuine improvement. Meanwhile the increased output of our farmlands and forests are feeding the world. The USA is the World's largest hydrocarbon producer again, a position lost in the late '60s, which precipitated the OPEC power grab and pricing extortion. America controlled and stabilized prices then, and is doing so again. What Oil we import comes from NAFTA, almost exclusively. So the Mid-East Oil Blackmail threat has evaporated. Why did we mandate improved Fuel Economy? We wanted to extend, but not prevent, the Day before the Peakist fearful pronouncement, that the Oil has run out. But that Fear is as long gone as the latest "Peakist" fear-mongering pronouncements.
The way the Oil situation has developed where Oil & Gas is being discovered and produced around the World both adding centuries of reserves and now increasingly being produced from depths where dinosaurs never roamed. The Abiotic Theory as a source of Oil is being proved more and more,every day, and with it planetary reserves of far greater magnitudes. So hydrocarbons are suddenly not in any danger of becoming scarce, in the next several centuries. The rapid way the over-exagerated Hoax of CAGW is collapsing, we will soon be able to return to chasing after and cleaning up real, genuine toxic emissions. I fully support making ICE autos as emissions free as EVs, the automakers have advocated and EPA is tightening regulations to do. The tiny 3-4% that Mankind adds of CO2 is wonderful plant food, needed to feed our forests and agricultural harvests, which have been starved of enough of it for eons, since they evolved. NAFTAites already bio-sequestrate every gram of Mankind originated CO2, as well as the vast majority of CO2 that Nature annually produces. Our forests and croplands cry out for more. Lets continue to Green the PLanet, as we have been doing. Already the average American new car buyer needs to be in his fifties, with a lifetime of savings, before that average buyer can afford to purchase a new auto. All the auto makers know and fear the results, as mandated technologies drive up the price of autos. Lengthening auto loans have been extended to 8-10 years, and can't go out any longer; and spending home equity on car purchases, collapsed in the real estate bust of the Great Recession. Hopefully by 2017-18 or so, we can relax this mad crash program to produce ever more expensive transport, that the population increasingly cannot afford to purchase. We can resume an orderly advance in technological solutions, as the technologies mature and not produce these unsaleable technological Tour de Force demonstration vehicles, that are madly premature and under-developed.
I do not trust politicians one bit. Changing what are really Figure of Merit measures of fuel economy to another scheme, is bureacratic makework. It indirectly amounts to a major tax increase WITHOUT having to vote for a Tax increase, so it is certain to happen. Why is "pollution" only CO2? Europe even with the new EU VI standards, still allows substantial genuine toxic pollutants, much more then in America. Which by the way is preparing to tighten to make an ICE powered car indistinguishable from an EV, in genuine toxic emissions. Europe is merely matching US standards of the 1980s, which have been tightened once more since then, with another tightening following soon. North America already bio-sequesters every gram of anthropomorphic CO2 that it "creates" and the some more besides. Europe, for one who travels there fairly commonly, literally reeks of diesel stink. It is no wonder your monuments are covered in scaffolding, as they try to remove the diesel soot from building surfaces. Imagine what it is doing to your citizen's lungs. Clean up your act, rather then spending time changing meaningless Figure of Merit measures of fuel economy, as an excuse to raise taxes without having to vote for doing so.
Highly paid makework.
They moved the goalposts in 2008, to preserve and justify their jobs. Now they want to move the goalposts once again. I expect for the same reason. I did not see piles of bodies from before the 2008 tightening, due to Ozone poisoning; and don't see any now, before this tightening. Why not just Declare Victory. Use the resources to address some other concern more needful of attention.
Now we will be able to calculate wrong model programs even faster. In other words GIGO faster.
We were searching for a name which people will remember to call our new miracle coating. So we selected a new unused name. We call it 'Paint'. /sarc on
Typical UCS left wing Bovine Pasture Patties. Measure companies ignoring the breadth of product lines. Then award credit to those companies that only produce a limited model line of light cars and no trucks. I don't know whether it is a conscious desire to misinform and deceive, or the simple fact that the UCS has no one left you can use scientific principles at all, to distinguish and compare only appropriate cases of apples and oranges. I suspect that the PR flacks and lefty lawyers left there are only able to prepare pre-determined studies which satisfy the constituencies that pay them. In other words this 'study' isn't worth the paper on which it is printed.
I think that Dr. Frank Davis at UC Davis was/is a genius and only recently recognized. He is worth more than a million blowhards like Al Gore or Ed Markey or the heads of UCS or WWF. PHEV technology provides an answer to a question no longer is needing to be asked. That is: 'How could you maintain our civilizations Transportation network if Petroleum actually ran out?' Of course it isn't, and likely never will. Dr. Davis showed that a fleet of Volts could be supplied with all the liquid fuel needed by simply making it from food in no larger quantities than we presently divert to that end, even if it is a government subsidized boondoggle of enormous proportions, supported by legalized thievery and extortion of funds from the taxpaying citizenry. All forms of PHEVs are appealing to me, because they could be more efficient than our still crude ground conveyances. But the technology is still premature, redundant, and enforced by mandate before its proper time. So I welcome all advances and improvements in efficiency from all manor of hybrids from micro through strong. Electrification has its place and may provide much of our transport hub eventually, but never all of it. Portable liquid fuels provide compact energy in quantity and will be needed in mobile Tranportation for a very long time.
I really liked the Bob Lee presentation. My previous comments reflect that. But overlooked completely was Mr. Lees comments about the evolving merger of Spark Ignited and Compresiion Ignited ICEs, along with his commentary on the new FCA small ICEs. Diesels are crude in their combustion and produce voluminous particle emissions. As we move ever closer to desireable truly clean ICEs, matching the emissions of BEVs, it will be necessary for them to get much more refined and start adopting technologies from the Spark Ignition world. Our Air is now clean, without it, but cleaner is better, as it implies greater efficiency. A typical "lightweight Diesel" weighs around 500-600 pounds while larger ones in small trucks like the Cummins in RAM pickups, can routinely weigh more than half a ton. The only reason they are so heavy is that CI engines can't control knock and must be crudely 'beefier' to survive. If Mr. Lee is hinting that, what VW has dubed "DiesOtto" operation, is really drawing closer, I look forward to such engines weighing slightly more than ICE gas engines at 150-360 pounds taking almost a quarter ton or more out of a vehicles weight while obtaining the fuel economy of a diesel, augmented even more by the weight reduction. I know GM had streetable test models of HCCI engines several years ago, that the press were invited to drive. Likely this is the avenue to reach the no-longer-necessary extreme fuel economy targets, while still producing mass market viable priced vehicles. Today America consumes no more oil than it did in 1985 when the population was one third the size. With this technology we can approach 1940s levels of fuel consumption. Oil is not running out, and the supposed danger of CAGW was massively overblown. We have no real Energy problems; it will not be solved with half-baked ideas for renewables. Clean and in-exhaustible Energy in unlimited quantities, is in the offing before the first third of this Century is reached. There are multiple avenues to achieve this, but ultimately I think controlled 2HE3-based Fusion generators will answer the need by mid-century. We will have commercial DT fusion in less than 20 years. But if not, quite as soon as I think, Fission could safely serve for the interim. I have worked in this field and am convinced the time is about to arrive. PS: I am an Engineer, but have never worked in automotive industries directly. I do observe the scene though, and can detect political BS, and like Engineer-Poet, see the false concern for watermelon green, pseudo-Science distorting all the worlds technical investment.
You act as if GW was an imminent problem. Even without any serious attempt at control in East Asia there has Been... NO GLOBAL WARMING in 17 YEARS & 5MONTHS !!!!! per the satellite record. Where is the emergency that you speak of? N. A. GHG emissions are back to the levels that James Hansen warned might be dangerous exceeding in 1988, and still falling. Genuine toxic emissions are falling and the Air is clearing. You have been absorbing your own propaganda to yourselves for far too long. The World will electrify when the technology is ready, and economical. There simply no crash effort needed, nor will any be employed. Meanwhile Fission get safer, and Fusion draws ever nearer to commercial use, in the next few decades. Meanwhile vast new reserves of abiotic hydrocarbons are being found and developed, sufficient for millenia.