I've never been convinced that co2 was the whole problem, thinking that the massive increase in radio/radar/microwave transmissions must play a part too, and they are absorbed in water easier than ice. That said the whole point of 'climate' and 'weather' is to equalise energy potentials in line with the second[?] law of thermodynamics thus if polar ice is melting [as a trend] then we have global warming, it is we do. That is the proof. When I was working on the house looking into thermal stores i was very suprised to find that water is one of the best you could get, far better than dense concrete, of equal volume, so it must transport far more heat than air. Its also melting at the south pole but since they could hardly be more different even honest people could doubt the effect in antarctica. At least on the surface. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctic-ice-shelves-are-melting-from-below-study-finds/ I used to think the great changes would happen faster in the south but now with the growing likelyhood of an ice free arctic ocean I anticipate a chaotic shift of climate dynamics in the north.

johnm33 the arguments herein go way over my head but it's existence seems uncontraversial. http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/lake.html

johnm33 on the arctic being ice free in the holocene, i remember reading [70s] about the first explorers to the new siberian islands finding mammoth tusks stacked as if for shipping and also forming simple 'ribbed' structures that had long since lost their skin covering. So i googled 'mammoth tusks on new siberian islands, after trawling no joy but these are the most interesting sites and well worth a look if you have the time.[stomach contents indicate climate] http://s8int.com/boneyard4.html http://www.blavatsky.net/science/atlantis/emails/suddenness.htm Neven the second[scientist] speaker in the second link of your 21:08 comment speaks what i think is about to happen - a warm current bathing the the shore of the laptev sea with the fresh water driven out by way of the western european coastline.

Thanks for all your efforts everyone, I worry that this year the terms anomolous extreme amazing and extraordinary may become common parlance when speaking of N.H. weather/climate, as things shift from record breaking to chaotic driven by a new regime in the north.

Theres this hot spot south of svalbard, which is at 16/18 degc i have no idea how extensive this could be but feel there must be a substantial flow for it to show up this far north. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_sst_NPS_ophi0.png Looking at this it would appear to be making it's way form the latitude of spain, but more or less due south of greenland. http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_sst_NW_ophi0.png To submerge and travel 4-5000 miles and retain enough heat to surface at 16 degc+ makes me think this is huge certainly too big for it all to be sucked down the 'plughole'. Or is this a normal feature, just warmer? where else does this current carry too?

Elsewhere Chris brought up the hot spots off NE greenland http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png which appear to be situated over the area the arctic basin sea floor river drains to the south. I'm guessing that the warm layer is being 'sucked down the plughole' it seems to reappear remixed to the south. How saline are those two areas, how extensive is that[sub surface] layer of warm water, where does that water flow from are any isotopic tests done anywhere that could identify it? I'm guessing that somehow it's coming round the top of greenland.

Chris do you think the outflow of the sea floor river http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080212134803.htm could be drawing that hot spot to its position http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png They seem quite coincident. A bit like water being sucked down a plughole? Is there a gyre thereabouts? Could we infer outflow volume from the strength of the gyre [if there is one] and from there the replacement volume?

Espen That big island may have snagged but it looks like the whole top corner is shifting. http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic Bob et. al. I'm thinking that once the early seaon dip happens the fresher top layer establishes which then oscillates between freezing cold and frozen soaking up heat every time it defrosts then the evaporation into the warmer air cools it til it freezes again. As far as total ice loss goes my guess is that there has to be a 'cold dump' established, just somewhere that tropical heat is moved to. The most sheltered spot for it is to the west of greenland so whilst i anticipate an ice free arctic basin i expect prodigious snowfall between greenland and the great lakes to create the kind of frozen desert that the 'cold dump' needs to be. That means eastern greenland would have warm[ish] currents carrying much of the the excess heat to a more temperate arctic basin,and remaining ice free. The warm arctic ocean is going to evaporate rapidly into the arctic night and this may prove sufficient to accelerate the atlantic drift. Of course all the lands not protected by northern mountains can expect much more snow, as can those northern mountains. Before this, or an alternative, settles i think erratic may not be a strong enough word to describe the weather. johnm

It dawned on me that the ice in the east greenland sea was consolidated by late fresh water run off, and snow?, last year. Which is why it's been so tenacious, similar to antarctic conditions? Looking at the fram straight animation it seems to be melting from below then refreezing with more fresh water, given the 'right' local conditions it looks prone to a rapid melt/dispersion, in 2-3 days anytime in the next three weeks.

This is a great service your doing Neven, I wish i could find something this good on antarctica. I've been convinced for years that conditions were building to turn the 'gulf stream' around the top of greenland. This would turn the arctic from an arid frozen desert into a more temperate zone shifting the cold 'dump' point for the northern hemisphere, creating radical shifts in every N.H.climate. With the extraordinary floods and high temperatures in the states this year I assumed a massive build up of heat in the gulf of mexico which would penetrate the arctic late in the season. Local weather in the arctic has delayed the melt between N.E. Greenland and Svalbard now I see myself clutching at straws to see a late season melt throughout this area, but everything looks ripe at the moment for such an event [IMO]. Any thoughts? I can't access http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ never had a problem before, makes me think something big is happening. regards johnm

IMO.If the storm, below iceland, on the DMI graphic stays close to greenlands coast we could see big changes this week. Currently looks just as likely to pass east of Svalbard. Is it safe to assume that the sea surface temperature [by greenlands coast] is influenced to a large extent by fresh water and that warmer currents persist below?

Back on Irene I'm guessing its going to accelerate surface water north into the widening gap between greenland and svalbard which may 'encourage' a shift in the major currents.

[not really d johnm33 will do] Great blog directed here by patrick lockerby. I see that Irene is set to start stirring things up should be an interesting week. Thanks to everyone for the insights.