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PIOMAS data through Aug 25 are posted now. Next update probably a few days into September. Axel
Toggle Commented Aug 31, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, Thanks for this post. It greatly helps that you have clarified the difference between PIOMAS output and the interpretations done here on this blog. To be sure, when I get a chance to stop by here, I am always amazed by the enthusiasm, energy, and expertise that is displayed here on this blog. I often see very good questions raised and frequently find myself scratching my head over one, only to find a pretty good answer posted by somebody here. So I hope it is clear that my comments about he use of the PIOMAS data were directed at their use and attribution, rather than at what people are posting here. Though, I would have hoped that before things go to parliament or to the BBC, that someone preparing the materials would catch the source and make sure that things are attributed properly. But, I think this is now all cleared up thanks in part to your post. The BBC had already corrected their article. As to the use of extrapolations for predictions, just quickly here: The choice of function is only one issue, and as discussed here, an exponential isn't a good fit for the trajectory of ice volume under a warming scenario. Just as importantly, for a prediction based on extrapolation to be skillful, the period over which the fit is performed also must have sufficient information about the future evolution of the sea ice trajectory. That this is indeed the case and that this information is sufficient to make a skillful prediction, in my view, needs to be clearly demonstrated before such a prediction should make it beyond experimentation and onto informing policy. I'm rather doubtful that this possible, but I'll keep an open mind. Cheers Axel
Toggle Commented Mar 21, 2012 on Use of graphs at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris and others Thanks for pointing out this error. There was an issue with the initialization of the model for the run for Dec. Since we rerun for the whole year the year to year transition was affected. Previous posts are unaffected. I should have caught this problem. We will have an update in a few hours. Sorry about the e-mail attempts. I didn't receive anything directly and the admin list is monitored intermittently. Thanks again for keeping a eye out for problems! Particularly those that are easily corrected ;) Happy New Year to all. Axel
Toggle Commented Jan 5, 2012 on December 2011 Open Thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Rob, Good question! We don't have an explanation of the processes that lead to the reduction of sea ice from one year to another. One thing to keep in mind is that the 280 km^3 in annual sea ice volume loss we show in our volume record, corresponds to a change in energy of roughly 0.4 Wm2. That's a very small number to try to track down. Yes, we can conjecture about the role of winds, ocean heat fluxes, ice export, clouds, feedbacks etc. and sometimes those things line up in a way that allow you to draw some fairly strong conclusions(e.g. 2007) but I think it will remain difficult to come up with solid explanations about year to year changes. Appreciating the 0.4 Wm-2, I think we are better off looking at the longer term changes. Doing so, and that's my personal bias, we have a better chance in getting a handle at the mechanisms that drive the changes in Arctic sea ice. Note also that scientific papers discussing the role of the contribution of various processes in 2007 are still coming out in 2011, and I doubt we are done quite yet. Nonetheless, its fun to follow what's happening in any one year and speculate about what's going on. Sometimes those ideas can inspire more detailed investigations that firm up those ideas. Cheers Axel Schweiger
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