"Sadly, the term "denier" has inescapable overtones following the Holocaust." The evidence for man-made global warming is as final as the evidence of Auschwitz. No other word will do.

Maslowski made his initial prediction here, in May of 2006, based on data through the meltseason of 2005, here. Slide 6 contains the pertinent text. He then followed it up in January of 2007 with this prediction, where he refined it to 2016, ± 3 years, here. You'll find the pertinent text is on slide 12. Maslowski details his proprietary model (to the degree he's allowed, as he runs it on the US Navy's supercomputer) here.

(No-hashtag version) @ crandles Not having Neven's facility with animations I can merely speak to what I meant. If one were to look at the various NSIDC sea ice age charts over time, then one would be able to see the retreat of the thicker ice towards those areas I mentioned. Such as in this graphic: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/04/Figure5.png Or this animation from PIPS 3: http://www.oc.nps.edu/~pips3/anim/heff18y365d.avi When viewed over a long enough period of time, one sees the trend in the overall thinning of the ice, with the areas nearest North America better retaining the thicker (and therefore last to melt) ice. Ice transport will dominate the Central Basin declines, as the mechanically weaker ice will serve little deterrence to wind and current + weather systems. Mr. Crump has on several occasions conflated the Arctic Basin with the Central Basin/region of the North Pole in his rear-guard action (which to me seems but hand-waving) to deny what is visually happening in the Arctic. Again, only Maslowski's model has come close to replicating what time has revealed to be the case WRT Arctic sea ice (and its demise). Still on course, the death spiral continues... A keeper: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjaVp6AS5XU

OK, just won't let me use any html.

Effin' Typepad not letting me post again.

A copy of Rampal et al can be found here: http://web.mit.edu/~rampal/rampal_homepage/Publications_files/Rampal_etal2011.pdf

Tamino over at Open Mind has a nice post looking at a new paper by Ian Eisenman (2010, Geographic muting of changes in the Arctic sea ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16501, doi:10.1029/2010GL043741), which shows that seasonal differences may be due to geography. The source paper is available here. Enjoying the insights you guys share, thanks! The Yooper

Re: fredt34 @ August 18, 2010 @ 14:24(and if a good soul can post a link about Comments & links syntax, I'd be grateful forever) I used to wonder that very thing, so I know how you feel. With Neven's kind forebearance, I will attempt to help. Here's a couple of html coding tips that other sites provide that I found useful: Skeptical Science HTML Tips Facebook HTML Cheatsheet Additional tips: I use Windows Notepad (not Word, as it will insert all kinds of unwanted formatting) to compose comments. I then I paste them into a comment field on a blog that supports the Preview function. Then I clean it up & make it look pretty easier to read. Then I post it on the site I wish to comment on. Works for me. Hope this helps! The Yooper