Since stadium waves have actually overwhelmed the thread, I'll go ahead and point out that Curry's pet uncertainty monster seems to be selective in who it bites.

NJSnowFan, et al., you could also just ask NJSnowFan if s/he understands the technical detail of the response. A simple request for verification of understanding usually results in the separation of trolls from the curious general public. Unless, of course, this is meant to be an experts-only forum/blog.

James, I believe it's spelled with an "a": "bear". PS: all should spare a few milliseconds of lament for 2009, who just lost its only daily CT SIA record anomaly. 2012 now owns 158 daily record area anomalies -- 43.3%.

2012 CT SIA, by my count, now has 139 daily minimum records. 2007 is now tied with 2011 for second place, with 67 each. 2006 = 44, 2010 = 26, 2009 = 15, 2004 = 5, and 2008 = 2. Average daily anomaly for the year is -1.36198. For 2007, it ended at -1.284005. 2011 = -1.253222.

Other numbers: CT SIA melt season daily average: 2012: 68,300.6 km2 2003: 60,698.8 km2 2008: 60,150.1 km2 2010: 58,053.6 km2 1993: 56,494.9 km2 Full record linear est: 203.684 Cherry-picked 1996-2012: 809.233

Brad Plumer has a piece at WaPo. I pointed him to the more recent model-observation comparison that's in the main post. I'll post the link here, and maybe an exchange of traffic will occur. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/20/when-will-the-arctic-be-ice-free-maybe-four-years-or-40/

From the Dep't of Ice-o-terica: 2012 CT SIA now has 102 days that each have the record minimum for their respective dates (74 (and counting) of these are consecutive). 2007 is now at 100. If the minimum has been hit at 2,293,761.3, then the average daily melt for the 2012 melt season is 70,461.4, almost 10k above the previous record of 60,698.8 in 2003.

Dep't of Esoterica. Something I didn't expect to happen this year: CT SIA is now lower than the CT SIA 79-08 anomaly.

From the Department of the Obscure: CT SIA for 2012 now has 83 daily record lows in area. Only 2007 stands in the way -- currently at 107 and obviously set to lose ground over at least the next two weeks. 2011 and 2012 currently account for 206 of the 365 daily record lows in the record. Melt season daily average is still around 76k.

Jack, everything is fodder for denialist misinterpretation. In this case, they'd have to demonstrate that Arctic vulcanism has increased significantly over the past 30 years.

One more small piece of esoterica that might have rhetorical value: CT Area has been below 50% of the 1979 daily numbers for the last week. It had never dropped below 50% before this season.

To add to Jim's post, and for what it's worth, we're also 164972.5 km2 from setting the melt season CT area loss record. 2008 10.8871598 2010 10.739908 2012 10.7221873 2009 10.4284585 2007 10.3977587 2002 10.2877698 1993 10.2820811 And just in case you're curious, the biggest freeze season gainers in the CTA record: 2007 10.9712765 2008 10.8495002 2011 10.8037708 2009 10.38744 2000 10.3575464 2002 10.3043513 2010 10.0722902

More fun with numbers: CT Area loss for the 2012 melt season (day 88 to present, by my count) is now 10.5054 million km2, the third highest area loss in the record, with roughly 30 days to go. With such a short melt season, that makes the average daily loss gigantic (currently 79,587 km2 per day, almost 19k km2 per day greater than the next highest (yet full-season) total (2003)).

The 60-day CTA daily average is once again over 100k, the 15th such period this melt season (all of 1 such period occurred prior).

And today's 90-day daily melt average for CT SIA is 93,607. Before 2012, it had never been above 88k. It's been 90+ for five days.

FYI: the largest 60-day drop in the historical record (CT): -6196017.7 km2, a sixty-day average of -103266.962 km2 per day. The eighth consecutive 60-day period over -6 million km2 (one period prior).

I apologize for not having paid attention to the weather, but to what extent have dipole conditions emerged during this melt season?

More statistical esoterica: all of the daily minimum area (CT) records have been set within the last 8 years. Fifty-two percent (191) have been set in the last four years. Forty-four have been set this year so far. 2007 contains 122, 2011 = 106, 2006 and 2012 are tied at 44.

I'll post on area, for what it's worth and despite the known problems. We've been above the pre-existing 60-day drop total record for three consecutive days now (above a century daily average). Also, only one five-day drop total has been this high (81260) this late in the season (82760 - 2002).

Based on a simple linear extrapolation + look at the ice, I came up with 2.89 for area. I'd like to know who polled more than 4.0. That would require an average daily drop for the next sixty days of around 26636 km2, which is more than 3 STD below average daily for those sixty days (44826). For what it's worth, the current sixty-day area drop (Cryosphere) is now the second largest in the record for any sixty-day period: -6.0621495 (1985 - Days 151-210) -5.9827003 (2012 - Days 133-192)

amendation: "The recent run" > "The recent nine-day run"

I'd add to Jim's posts that the ten day period ending yesterday was just 4015 sq km short of the 1999 10-day record drop. The 1999 run that holds the record was almost the first 10-day century run on record. The recent run is the third on record (1995, 2010). Drop runs are far shorter than gain runs. The 17-day century gain in 1995 holds that record.

Thanks, Bill, Rob.

Is anyone keeping an eye on global sea ice area or have the address to up-to-present Antarctic sea ice area/anomaly data? Thanks.