PS - forgot to add - nice summary post Nevin, as usual. Thanks

In theory, a system that is basically stable will "regress towards the norm" after an extreme event. However, my gut feel about the Arctic these days is that so many factors have changed - less albedo, more current flow, less snow cover, more shoreline exposure, local methane concentrations, more wind/wave effects from more exposed open water...the list just goes on - that there is scarcely a "norm" any more - it has become simply unstable as a system. Anything goes! I expect very low minimums from now on - and Maslowski is closer to reality than those who talk about 2030 for an ice-free summer!