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By the way, thanks for your words Neven, but I'm far from being an 'expert', just an amateur.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
As you have said, the Canadian Ice Service graph that I posted shows the ice cover for this week. Looking at the "Total accumulated ice coverage" graph, this winter is the second highest (the highest is 1993/94): http://diablobanquisa.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/20140303180000_cvchactgl_0007547821.gif
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2014 on Another ice extreme at Arctic Sea Ice
-51ºC today at Eureka, Ellesmere island. http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71917&ano=2013&mes=3&day=1&hora=12&min=0&ndays=50
Toggle Commented Mar 1, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bonjour, wayne. James Hansen et al., 2007: "It may be fruitless to search for an external forcing to produce peak warmth around 1940. It is shown below that the observed maximum is due almost entirely to temporary warmth in the Arctic. Such Arctic warmth could be a natural oscillation (Johannessen et al. 2004), possibly unforced. Indeed, there are few forcings that would yield warmth largely confined to the Arctic. Candidates might be soot blown to the Arctic from industrial activity at the outset of World War II, or solar forcing of the Arctic Oscillation (Shindell et al. 1999; Tourpali et al. 2005) that is not captured by our present model. Perhaps a more likely scenario is an unforced ocean dynamical fluctuation with heat transport to the Arctic and positive feedbacks from reduced sea ice" http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf GISS maps also show warming in the canadian side for the period 1920-1940. Few stations? OK, but the available data are the available data.
Toggle Commented Sep 1, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi deconstruct. As I said, I´m sure that the extent in 1938 was much larger than today. My "monthly mean" means what you have said: different observations, in different points and in different days. So, if we want to compare it with a modern map, I think we should use NSIDC monthly mean rather than a daily map. Thank you for comparing it with Aug 1st and Aug 15, it has more sense than comparing only with the end of the month. Hi Espen, thank you for the information from DMI ;-) But I`m not saying DMI never had data of the american side, I´m only reading a concrete map. In the legend on the map: "no colour indicates ice supposed but no data at hand". Half Chukhi, whole Beaufort, almost whole CAA: no colour, no line of ice edge, no data. For this map, of course. (and except some data surrounding Baffin Island). Bon soir, wayne. The GISS data is what we have... Well, we also have the data of Polyakov et al. (the blue line of the graph: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9890/image001_uul3.png ) and the most complete Arctic instrumental temperature dataset for the XX century. This is the link: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C2067:VATOAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 In pag. 3 you can see a map with the station and buoys used for the data. So, the available data show strong arctic warming for the period 1918-1945.
Toggle Commented Aug 31, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
I don´t agree with Christy, and I´m sure that in 1938 the total extent of the arctic sea ice was much larger than today. But I think we should be careful when comparing maps. First, we are comparing what likely is a monthly mean (1938) with a snapshot of a day at the end of the month (2012). Second, the DMI chart hasn´t data for the american side: no data for half Chukchi sea, whole Beaufort and almost whole CAA (ice supposed, but without data at hand). Third, the metodology of both maps is very different. The arctic warmed very fast from 1920 to 1945 (see http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9890/image001_uul3.png ) so we can expect an effect on sea ice. However, in 1920 the Arctic was coming from the LIA and it had a lot of very thick MYI, what could have mitigated the response of sea ice cover. The oceans were cooler too. The arctic warming of 1920-1945 is not well understood, and it is often explained as caused by "unforced variability" (AMO?, thermohaline circulation?) I think that the arctic warming of 1989-2012 is likely caused by AGW/GHGs + "unforced variability". If the "unforced variability" turns the corner towards cooling, maybe the melting could slow down in coming years. Or not, if the anthropogenic forcings and their feedbacks can neutralise it. Only my opinions, and excuse my awful english.
Toggle Commented Aug 31, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
New thin ice, nilas, in the latest snapshots from Healy: http://icefloe.net/Aloftcon_Photos/albums/2012/20120831-0801.jpeg
Toggle Commented Aug 31, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss at Arctic Sea Ice
I don,t know if it has been posted: fast bottom melt in the recently deployed new IMB buoys: http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012I.htm http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012J.htm
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss at Arctic Sea Ice
More about the historical data: http://www.aari.ru/resources/m0001/sea_ice/CD1/VISUAL_ATLAS/Introduction/geo_distribution_of_sea_ice/arctic_data.htm "The problems of historical data are illustrated by the work of Hunt and Naske (1979) for the Alaskan coasts. They used the log reports of whaling and trading ships operating in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas from the late nineteenth century. Charts of the average ice edge are shown for the summer months for 1860-79, 1800-1919, 1920-70, but no details are given as to the procedures used or number of data points available. These charts show lighter ice conditions after 1940 and a tabulation of ice data from 1900 at Point Barrow by Swithinbank (1960) gives the same result. This is in apparent conflict with the ice retreat estimated from climatic records for Barrow since 1926 (Barry, 1979), and it is unclear how far this represents differences in definition of the ice edge seen from small whaling ships and from modern vessels and aircraft/satellite imagery, or whether there are ice-climate relationships that have been inadequately interpreted using only recent data. An analysis of inferred ice conditions from weather records at Barrow for 1882, 1883, 1902, 1911 and 1916, compared with the ice conditions reprted by Hunt and Naske (1979), indicates agreement in 1902 and 1911 (light ice), some disagreement in 1882 and 1903, and insufficient data for comparison in the other two years. The most complete ocean-wide historical information is that available for the Arctic in the monthly ice charts for April to August or September published by the Danish Meteorological Institute (1901-39 and 1946-50). The data coverage is moderately good in the North Atlantic sector where charts are available from 1877 (Ryder, 1896). For the Barents Sea, Norwegian records are available from 1853-1900s; Vinje (1998) is developing an ice index for the sector 20є-45єE. There is also discontinuous information for April for the intervals 1580-1600s and some years in the 12th century. There are also extensive archives of 18-19th century ice information for the Russian Arctic at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in St. Petersburg (Abramov and Smolianitksi, 1997). This is discussed further below. For more recent years, aircraft reconnaissance and satellite data provide a fuller picture of both polar regions. Early Soviet work with aircraft in the Arctic is reported by Armstrong (1950). Regular Soviet reconnaissance flights began in 1924 with extensive routine summer operations from 1933 (250 hours/year, increasing to over 500/year from 1950, and a maximum of 900/year from 1970 to the early 1990s). Regular United States aerial reconnaissance flights in the Arctic date from 1952." Kelly, 1979: An Arctic sea ice data set 1901-1956, Glaciological Data 5, p. 101-106: http://nsidc.org/pubs/documents/gd/GD-5_web.pdf Hunt and Naske, 1977: A BASELINE STUDY OF HISTORIC ICE CONDITIONS IN THE BEAUFORT SEA, CHUKCHI SEA, AND BERING STRAIT http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/OCSEAP2/PhysicalScience/8516713/FP%20v01.pdf#page=122
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
"Arctic Warming" During 1920-40: A Brief Review of Old Russian Publications http://mclean.ch/climate/Arctic_1920_40.htm
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
1938 map (monthly mean?): "No colour indicates ice supposed but no information at hand": half Chukchi sea, Beaufort, CAA... no data. No possible comparison with the satellite era maps. But the arctic warming of 1920-1945 was strong (and it is not well understood). One can wait some effects in the sea ice.
Toggle Commented Aug 29, 2012 on Similar melts from 1938-43? at Arctic Sea Ice
I mostly agree with Peter. The weekly maps of the NIC are interesting because they are very similar to those of IMS, but with a more detailed concentration of each area. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/products/products_on_demand.html MASIE=IMS=NIC
The Healy is moving and is showing some ice (broken and in advanced state of melting) around 72ºN and 164/163ºW. (Aug 14-15) In Bremen´s map (Aug 14) is not any ice until and beyond 165ºW. So, I think, Bremen´s map underestimates a bit the sea ice concentration.
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2012 on More news on CryoSat-2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Over the Top? Retreating Sea Ice and the Prospects for Rising Navigation in the Arctic (p. 9-16) http://www.zeitschrift.co.uk/International_Zeitschrift_8_1_2012.pdf
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2012 on Peeking through the clouds 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
IJIS has updated: 08/08 5.585.313 09/08 5.510.313 10/08 tomorrow will be revised
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2012 on Peeking through the clouds 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
IJIS has updated, with a big drop: 08,05 6119531 08,06 5931094
DMI extent chart uses the same data that these maps, showing "flash melting" too: http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/conc.shtml
Pressure ridge near the O Buoy 4: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/data/obuoy/var/plots/buoy4/camera/webcam.jpg
CT minimum daily SIA: between 3.2 and 3.4 NSIDC september SIE: between 5 and 5.25
The drop in DMI´s graph is a glitch, see the "hole" in Hudson Bay: http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201205081200_pal.jpg
Shortfatape: Deployment of the 2012 North Pole Webcams and Enviromental Observatory: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2012-field-reports/ The webcam of the O-Buoy 6 is working, at the North Pole: http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy6/webcam
Toggle Commented Apr 17, 2012 on April 2012 Open Thread at Arctic Sea Ice
In the extended winter (Dec-Mar) the temperatures in Beaufort and Chukchi seas have been below the 1981-2010 mean, so maybe we could expect thicker ice than in previous years: http://images.meteociel.fr/im/62/compday.85.87.236.179.99.4.59.17_rtb2.gif
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2012 on April 2012 Open Thread at Arctic Sea Ice
"Don't forget your sunglasses" I will take my goggle... Nice picture! Soon, the whole MODIS Mossaic and the NPEO webcams.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2012 on North pole sees Sun at Arctic Sea Ice
Kwok 2011, The thinning of arctic sea ice: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm305/Kwok-and-Untersteiner-2011.pdf
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2012 on Sea Ice Thickness at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Pete. I don´t agree Belchansky 2008 is "an opinion piece". In my opinion, Belchansky et al. 2008 is interesting because it uses an alternative approach to estimate SIT during the period previous to the "new arctic state". And it offers a complete review of an elusive parameter as thickness, and its relations with AO and other factors. It shows where we come from. Of course, Polyakov´s paper you quote is also very interesting and more updated (it was reported by Neven here: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/09/new-paper-by-polyakov-kwok-and-walsh.html )
Toggle Commented Mar 9, 2012 on Sea Ice Thickness at Arctic Sea Ice