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Doug Lofland
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Neven don't blame the Americans, Lake Superior was named by the French, and in their language it meant upper.
I have really been wondering if the release of Methane is causing the increase in sea ice formation, and maybe even limited the melt-off in 2013, where the trend had broken down. While all the literature I have read concerns the increase of atmospheric Methane levels and the potential warming effects, I have not seen a paper on what happens when that Methane rises from the depths, through the water column to reach the atmosphere. Almost all gases cool as they decompress. Some gases, such as Freon, have a greater capacity, and are useful as a refrigerant. Hydrocarbon gases are even used as refrigerants and Methane is considered a low grade refrigerant. Air even has enough of the property, that at a ski resort, they simply discharge compressed air in the presence of water to make snow. When a gas bubble rises up through a water column, the rate of decompression increases as it gets closer to the surface, such that the greatest decompression occurs in the last few meters. So could there be enough Methane decompressing, that it could aid sea ice formation? In this article they mention that the rate of release of Methane per day was 500 kilograms/square kilometer. It also said that the Methane was from thawing sub-sea permafrost, which was breaking down due to temperature and ocean turbulence. What it did not say was if it was strictly a trapped gas, or was the source of the Methane from Methane clathrates. If it’s from clathrates, then, in the dissociating process, fresh water would also be released in addition to gaseous Methane. Almost sounds like a perfect formula to make sea ice to me. A mathematical model could be developed if the depth and starting temperature were known, to calculate the cooling effect on the surface. I am fairly time challenged right now, any takers out there?
Neven, CB, JimD and all - What I really like about this blog is not only the great posts by Neven, who puts a lot of research and thought into each new subject, but most of the comments and links that pop in. While some are "off topic" and perhaps a small distraction to the subject at hand, the sum of it all has been invaluable to me and my continuing education here at Acropolis U. I am very time limited, and often read this on my tablet during a break, and just don't have the time to spend in the ASIF or anywhere else, so, for me, it has become a one-stop shop. I also want to thank everyone for their contributions.
Should have said Egypt and Israel.
Talking about extreme, snowing in Israel One source predicted over 50 cm. Wonder if its tied to that cyclone off Greenland?
Larsboelen, thanks for the tip about MeteoEarth. Best weather app I have ever seen, and also for the Droid people too. Amazing coverage in the arctic and everywhere else. Only thing it does not do (yet) is a sea ice layer, waves, sea temperature and take out the trash.
Toggle Commented Nov 10, 2013 on PIOMAS October 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
NJSF, You should take up terminology issues with NOAA and the NWS. Tonight they used "1,000 year" and "biblical" to describe the ongoing events in Colorado. My sources for weather watching are Neven, Dr. Jeff Masters and Christopher Burt, not the sensationalized media, and I could not think of a more cautious and conservative group that puts a great deal of effort to get the information right. It will take months to understand what led to the conditions, why the ice is where it is (and is not), and all this through satellite eyes 700 kms out in space. I don't have long johns and have not had weather in 2 years here in Miami where I have needed to wear anything other than shorts. I would welcome cool winters again, being able to shut the A/C off. I would love to see the old patterns return, that were here for so many years. I would love to see the tropical zone stop creeping north, and sea level rise stop or reverse. Thanks to websites like this that lurkers like myself can learn a little about what is going down on the planet.
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
I should not be making fun at the Boulder flood, its becoming a very serious situation. But it may not be that off topic. While everyone is looking at the ice minimum, and no new record being broken (or their predicted minimum not happening) a record that might be broken this year is the extent of the open ocean between Greenland and Sevemaya Zemlya (or Greenland/Barents/Kara Seas). I am going to CAD it as soon as the minimum is reached, and see how it compares to other years. The fact that it extended as far north as it did, and the lack of ice off East Greenland may have created the largest "heat island" in that part of the world, which may skew/lock/alter the jet stream in ways we have not seen yet. The extreme weird weather just keeps a coming, everywhere you look.
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Tweet from @spogburn in Boulder, 2013's missing Arctic ice located: after a phase change it's headed down Boulder Creek towards #NSIDC.
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at the AMSR2 from 8.15, it looks like some significant open ocean very close to the pole. While this year is not shattering records, open ocean forming at the pole would be historic. I have always wondered how a liquid surface would behave at the center of rotation of the planet. Could a whirlpool type feature, or strong gyre form? Its worth watching with that in mind.
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 6: major slowdown at Arctic Sea Ice
And thank you for Gish Gallops, I needed to add that to my vocabulary. Had been looking for that word per some present dealings with a coal miner.
Neven, well deserved! Hopefully your followers will soon break 200, then add some zeros soon.
Espen, A-Team did a nice post over on Update 6, but if you look at his favorite microwave channel in Aug 2012 and again this year your 15 something is more than a feeling, I think. This year is so different.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
+40° C is really bad, sorry to hear. But as improbable as that must seem, you should also consider adding a "Santa Clause Chute" which is a Colorado term for a chimney with a ladder so that if you awaken with 6 meters of snow, you can get out. We live in a world where what is not supposed to happen, does now happen. Further off topic, it looks like the Northwest Passage could open any day now, thanks to the latest cyclone.
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Nice post Neven, I am not convinced that the various satellites are not reporting what is actually happening, and I am sure that there are some scientists chomping at the bit right now to ground truth some of this data, if they could figure out how to get there. Anyplace that MODIS will allow a peak through the clouds, I always see broken ices floes, not the solid sheets and pressure ridges of the past. Sometimes water can be seen between the ice, other places it is all white. All these breaks are a result of all the cyclones and the dynamics a more wave active arctic versus the frozen past. I think three things are happening. 1. Broken ice will spread so the extent will increase. 2. When there is open water with very cold air above it, a thick layer of dense fog will form, even on a clear day, and that might be tricking the microwave. 3. If there is wind and the right conditions, this open water will cause lake effect snow, so the existing ice will become more reflective, but also appear to become thicker, further playing tricks on the microwaves. I only mention this as I lived for a winter in the early '70s on Lake Superior, back in the day when it routinely froze in the winter. I had a small boat, and was so fascinated by the ice floes, I would go out into it, and observed some very interesting conditions. There could just be some very large scale errors going on right now.
I am staying with 1.8 Mkm^2 Just uploaded another melt video through July 30 with a side by side at the end comparing to the same date in 2012. As Kevin says the melt pattern is very different, but the really significant change this year is the highly broken up core north of 85 degrees. In 2012 everything that was dark purple stayed in September, but this year there is very little of that same dark purple anywhere. Instead the textured (if you will) purple seems to correspond with broken sheets with significant open water in between, as seen when the clouds allow a visual view. The Sea Ice Extent daily reports are not counting all the open water and it ranges up to gaps of 10 kilometers. So to me its like the solid sheet of ice, thanks to all the cyclones, got busted up into a millions of pieces and spread out over a larger area. It also moves around and changes much more than in previous years. NSIDC draws a line around the ice and them measures the area, and in past years that worked. There were never internal areas of significant open ocean. This year is so different. One of the big changes to look for is with the mosaic of all open sea at the pole, will be the continued jet stream weirdness. If its super hot in Siberia, its likely cold in Kansas, as the cold air that should have stayed north is now driven south. I fear that the extremes will get much worse very soon.
Starting to see ice concentration bands from the cyclone on AMSR-2 on July 24, and I brought the video animation current at
Toggle Commented Jul 25, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Now there has been over 12 hours of 50 deg F+ air blowing from the south at 25 to 40 mph at Alert by the Nares Strait. The barometer was still dropping when the station went offline 3 hours ago. Nice to see some ground truthing to the satellite data. 54 deg F was last reading.,-62.28055573
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Just saw that the Alert station on Ellesmere has shot up to a balmy 51 deg F (10.5 deg C) with the barometer falling to 1009 and strong winds from the south gusting to 30mph.
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice
I am going to stick with 1.8 million km2, and judging by the open water and melt rings (for lack of a better word)that are starting to form around the pole, this will probably be the year of the North Pole Gyre, which will be a game changer.
1.8 +/- 0.2 mkm2 based on a huge spreadsheet that reverse engineered the melt based on energy that will be in excess from the state change. Also consulted with a psyhic on Long island
Hello Neven and everyone. This blog is a great resource and way ahead of anything else I have seen. I just donated 20 euros, and would hope all the followers can do something on a regular basis.This can't be easy to maintain. Keep up the good work!
Toggle Commented May 2, 2013 on 2012/2013 Winter Analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
January Thaw in Siberia?
In addition to Ddresser's possible results of a gyre, it might also push water away from the pole temporarily until it re-freezes. This may have happened in 2007 on a small scale. I am working on a video animation of the real time tidal anomalies that occurred in Oct-Nov 2007 and will post when its done, and will be looking for similar this fall. If these tidal events of 2007 are larger, and a result of of more liquid and fluid arctic, it will be on the nightly news.
While much of the focus is on new records being set on area and density, another record might be the closeness of open water to the actual north pole. Could a gyre, driven by the Earths strong rotation, be forming at the North pole right now? Also, notice on the loss of concentration around the pole, in almost a circular pattern. 2007 never came close to doing any of this.