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David vun Kannon
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Sorry, I should have said Day 150 in my previous comment, not 180.
3.0M km^2 I would have guessed 4.0 if I thought the system was still describable by a model with a stable mean, or at least trend, and that reversion to the trend made sense. I don't think that is accurate. I think we are in a process driven by albedo change as ice melts and is replaced by dark water, with more energy stored deeper than previously. If I could delay my prediction until 7 June, I might go lower, say to 2.5. Looking at previous years, the melt really hits its stride after Day 180, so those few days before locking in the prediction could give a clue whether the line was about to fall off the edge of the table or not. But I can't wait, so 3.0 it is.
Great post! So, what occurs one step earlier in the causal chain? If you looked before Dec 21, 2012, for example, would you find a period of low wind over this area? I'm not sure what would allow the desert air to accumulate heat, given that the cloudless air from low humidity usually allows all the heat to escape to space overnight. Does a dust storm act similarly to clouds for trapping heat? Neven - green and brown plants might absorb more heat than light colored sand. Without knowing what causes the anomalous warming in the first place, it is hard to say what would work.
Neven, your comment "It seems the situation has basically flip-flopped, with thicker ice now off the Siberian coast and thinner ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas." is, I think, mistaken. Since the image shows change in thickness, what it is saying is that the ice off Siberia has thickened the most since last March, while there has not been much change in the MYI north of Greenland.
Toggle Commented Apr 12, 2013 on PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update at Arctic Sea Ice
What is the temperature profile of Hudson Bay throughout the year? I'm asking because it occured to me that it might give us a clue to what an ice free Actic might look like. Yes it is shallower, but it is still a big body of water that completely freezes and then completely melts. So, good proxy or bad for the whole AO?
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2013 on A new round of vids at Arctic Sea Ice
First time I've seen this graphic: Ice is absorbing almost as much heat as the atmosphere? What is going to happen when we lose a big chunk of that? Scary...
Toggle Commented Apr 9, 2013 on A new round of vids at Arctic Sea Ice