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San Diego
Electric Car Insider Magazine
Interests: electric cars, electric motorcycles, electric bikes, electric vehicles
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Would hydrogen produced from “surplus” electricity be economically competitive if the electrolyzer equipment used to produce it was only operating at partial capacity? Would it be cost competitive with pumped hydro or one of the other newer gravity storage schemes now entering production? Given the low round-trip efficiency, it seems unlikely.
The timing on this optimistic IEA hydrogen report could hardly be worse. FCV drivers in Norway and California are currently using ICE loaner cars because the fueling infrastructure has been crippled by explosions in those regions. Battery electrics and plug-in hybrids don’t face the same single point of failure problem on fuel delivery. Anyone previously considering FCVs for daily transportation must surely pause to consider if H2 can be considered a reliable transportation fuel.
> Tesla cars are very expensive to insure Sadly true. Tesla is working on a new insurance product and factory owned body shops to address that issue.
Buried in that butter-smooth marketing speak was this insight: “sales methods with a new approach will also be needed. ” Maybe the slumbering giant is waking up.
Hyper cars are kinetic art + engineering. Dr. Frank Walliser, Porsche 918 Spyder Project Manager explained to me at the LA Auto Show: “It is to show what is possible”. As Tesla has demonstrated, establishing an aspirational pinnacle inspires and creates demand.
Bravo, BC. This is what leadership looks like.
No mention of the cost efficiencies of two extra fuel cells vs simply fitting a larger battery. As batteries drop below $100/kW, that will be a hard act to beat with an extra fuel cell or two, along with attendant pumps and storage tank. I imagine they must be thinking about large vehicles that have room for really large tanks, like Semis.
Toyota knows what they’re doing, certainly. It’s just not necessarily in the customer’s or public policy interest, it’s in Toyota’s interest. That’s capitalism. If Toyota has “THE” answer, why is every other truck manufacturer except Nicola producing battery electric or PHEV trucks? (Nicola, perhaps tellingly, recently announced a BEV). Freightliner, Cummins, Peterbilt, Fuso, Mack, and dare I say Tesla in Davemart’s presence, know what they are doing too. I think there’s a better case to be made for H2 for drayage tractors than for cars, but at $14-16 per kg, that’s a steep grade.
The Beaver has a 2,100 lb useful load, so with a 1,000 lb battery, they’ll get 30 minutes of flight with a 30 min reserve. That may seem unworkable, but that’s the kind of mission they fly. Other interviews with McDougall confirm that. They have longer turn times at the dock, enabling practical fast charging. As battery energy density improves, they’ll be able to service more of their routes and add some seats back for the shorter hops.
Certainly solar is only part of the solution. But if your grid mix is less than ideal, a combo EV/PV purchase moves you closer to the goal, and saves you money. Payback periods for residential can be as low as 6 years now if you’re a savvy consumer and get competitive installation bids. Important point is that a consumer can make a personal choice. The aggregate of these personal choices can move the needle on air quality.
Surprising to see Mini playing catch-up after have such an early lead with the original Mini Electric.
Another authoritative argument for the removal of coal from the electric grid energy mix, and for purchasing solar with that EV.
Even with this slush fund, coal research is a bad career move for three reasons: Coal is already uncompetitive on price, and becoming more so every year. The next administration is likely to reverse course on coal policy. What will you tell your grandkids you did for a living? Coal is a technological dead end.
The Outlander PHEV is a good car. I prefer my all-electrics, but it’s really well equipped for the price. Also the only PHEV that has fast charging (other than the BMW Rex, a different kind of PHEV). The limited tow capability as noted by EP is the only drawback I’ve encountered so far. If you need a non-premium plug in SUV, this is the one.
The Beaver has an inflight-adjustable propeller. 30kW is 9% of rated full power. That aircraft is not flying at 9% throttle, it is taxiing.
OP> Fifty percent higher energy vs. current state-of-the-art (SOTA) lithium-ion If we assume they’re talking about Panasonic’s 250 Wh/kg cells used by Tesla, they’re suggesting 375 Wh/kg. The Table shows up to 700 Wh/kg. I wonder what time frame they are targeting for those parameters? It would appear that the lower bound of 320 Wh/kg is implied in their production target of Q2 2019.
I’m sure those 6,500 H2 drivers will appreciate 12 new stations online statewide. San Diego currently has one H2 station for a 100x100 mile area. Maybe we’ll get two or three.
Perhaps you didn’t notice that the Nissan Leaf, for example, has steadily progressed from 73 mile range in 2010 to 226 mile range in 2019. A 300% increase in 10 years Harvey. That’s actually 12% per year. Affordable commercial product for end-users, not laboratory test cells. Fast charge capable. I don’t know why I bother to post replies to ridiculous assertions like “it will take another 15 years...” Astute readers of this site know better.
Harvey, the math *within your own post* does not add up. Tesla is at 250W/kg now (actually met that milestone several years ago). 8% improvement per year takes only 7 years to get to 428W/kg. That would line up with VWs widely quoted prediction that we’ll see a major step change by 2022. (They are putting their money where their mouth is on this one, with multi billion dollar investments through the value chain from R&D to massive scale production, as you have read here on GCC many times in the past year).
SJC, you’re right, H2 is entirely non-economic that way. That’s probably why NG trucks and refueling systems exhibits outnumber H2 by 10:1 or better at shows like ACT Expo. Take a look at the map for NG refueling infrastructure in North America: Then compare to Hydrogen: It’s a stunning rebuke of H2’s fitness for market.
That’s some creative thinking Brom, but factually incorrect on the premise of kW to hp and the % of max power needed to maintain economy cruise flight. I’ve been a pilot for about 10 years, own and maintain two airplanes (DA20 & SR20) and have another build project in process (original design, not a kit, which are also great). I’ve never flown a Beaver, but I used to live In Seattle and took seaplane flight training while there. I assure you that you would not be able to achieve cruise flight in a Beaver at 30kW.
I’d love to see long haul trucks as ZEV, but with H2 at $14/kg, and refueling infrastructure at 10x the capex vs BEV, FC Semis seem unlikely to succeed. Because BEV Semis can fundamentally change the economics of transportation with $1gal equivalent, it’s just a matter of battery energy density reaching a practical value. Who is going to spend a few hundred billion on a nationwide H2 infrastructure if 400W/kg is going to be commercially available by 2022-2025?
I wonder how many of the Mirai were purchases vs leases. At some point, that will be some exotic hardware to recover.
A review in Plane & Pilot says fuel burn at 110 kts (135 mph) ranges from 22 to 28 gph. Even at 20 gph, fuel cost is at least $100 per hr. Fleet maintenance is likely to be substantially less expensive than for a typical private owner (not cheap by any means - it is an airplane). Even at $50/hr engine reserve, fuel is 2/3 of the operating expense. You’re correct that lower cost maintenance is undoubtedly also a big driver here. Early on though, you’ll see fairly low TBOs for electric aircraft, and not cheap. The Alpha Electro’s TBO is 2,000 hrs for example, even though industrial electric motors routinely go past their 100,000 hour TBOs. Great to see this exciting development by a savvy and deeply experienced aviation operator.
sd, exciting to hear about your build project. Do you have a web site for it? Brom, 30kW ~ 40 hp, not enough for cruise. As sd mentions, 55% of full power is a more likely value for “economy cruise.” (75% is typical for x-country travel). Probably they are in “loiter mode” for the short tours, 10 -20 mph over stall which is 60 mph with flaps up. I don’t know the exact power setting for that but you can extrapolate from a top speed of 158 mph at full power when fitted with pontoons. The original DHC-2 Beaver is powered by a 450 hp Pratt & Whitney R-985 engine. ~250hp at 55%. The Beaver has a 2,100 lb useful load. If Harbour Air is going to give up a couple passenger seats to facilitate the transition from $5/gal Avgas to $0.10/kWh (or less with solar) electric fuel ($USD) this could work for their short “tours”.