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San Diego
Electric Car Insider Magazine
Interests: electric cars, electric motorcycles, electric bikes, electric vehicles
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More space for the sponsor’s logos. ;-)
I’m glad to see the team from UC Davis studying this issue, but the methodology seems flawed, and the conclusions likely in error for the reasons pointed out above. Get mileage figures from DMV registration and service record data. Get Tesla mileage figures directly from telemetry data. Fleet Karma can do the same for the rest (yes, a utility or other funding source will have to foot the bill). 250+ mile range vehicles from manufacturers other than Tesla are a very recent addition to the fleet. Of course people with an 80 mile range Leaf are going to drive less, that’s who bought these cars - folks who had a matching lifestyle. “Teslas consumes almost twice the amount...” surprise, surprise.
In some areas, electricity is as low as $0.05 per kW, especially off-peak time of use rates. That’s also about what it costs you if you produce your own electrons with solar panels on your roof. So you could pay as little as $3,281 for fuel over 15 years for the Tesla. $26,719 in fuel savings for the Tesla, 76% of its purchase price.
All good tech innovations reported here, but the Achilles heel is what happens after the $15,000 of complimentary hydrogen is gone. $16/kg x 5 = $80 for a fill-up that takes you 400 miles. $0.20 per mile. At $0.12 per kWh, a Tesla Model 3 will take you 3.44 miles combined city/highway, or about $0.035 per mile At 15,000 miles per year, the Mirai fuel cost is $3,000 The Tesla Model 3 fuel cost is $525 Mirai fuel is $45,000 over 15 years Tesla fuel is $7,875 over 15 years Over 15 years, the BEV fuel cost savings is $37,125. Net $22,115 after the $15k free fuel credit for the Mirai. That’s enough to pay for 63.2% of the purchase cost of an entry level Model 3.
Used Mirai on sale for under $9k, will probably sell for $8k. $8,900 asking price for 2016. $9500 asking price for 2017 on Selling price usually 7-15% less than asking. MSRP was $58,325 for 2016, including destination fee. MSRP was $58,365 for 2017, including destination fee. 2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range (315 mi) asking $31k to $36k for 2018. MSRP was about $50k.
I agree that the legislature should not pick technologies or suppliers, only set standards that companies must meet. But the market speaks on technology and suppliers, and the market has spoken. It will be interesting to see if any H2 long haul trucks get traction, but given the delta in fuel costs, it seems very unlikely. The price performance curve favors BEVs. If you were a truck driver and could save $25k per year in fuel costs buy changing your schedule to include a one hour break mid-day, would you do it? Operators and drivers will figure this out pretty quickly. They will probably be less fatigued and in overall better health, also.
K> Then the hydrogen stations will follow. The lead time for building these stations is long, hope they are intending to start to create the nationwide (or coastal corridor) infrastructure soon. There are serious headwinds: H2 station cost is much higher than electric charge stations. Retail cost of hydrogen is much higher than diesel. For distances less than 350 miles, it’s going to be very difficult to compete with BEV. That is the majority of truck miles driven.
That is a good looking van. Clever name.
Still have to produce it, and the cost of small scale locally electrolyzed H2 is?... (expensive) Still have to compress it, not an insignificant cost. Also, takes a lot of water. Not at all an inconsequential amount at scale. Someone is planning (or at least announcing a plan) to run this experiment: Nikola. I sincerely hope they succeed and come up with a breakthrough and execution that surprises us all. Just not going to stake my future on it.
My fuel cost comparison above was incomplete. Mid to large fleets can install solar (or buy community solar) and see costs of about $0.05 kWh. For the car comparison, that’s $0.012 per mile. For trucks, scale both H2 and electric cost per mile by 5x to 10x and you have a reasonable back of the envelope number that puts the cost difference into perspective even without knowing what size truck or load. At 10x: $2.10 per mile for H2 $0.12 per mile for electric. Over 500k miles: $1m for H2 $60k for electric
That’s a very odd comparison. As if producing, transporting and compressing the hydrogen does not take far more energy. Readers of this site know better. Leaving out the cost comparison gives away the game. Hydrogen costs about $14 per kg, $0.21 per mile for passenger cars. Electricity from solar is now being bid at less than $0.02 per kWh in some regions. For the cost of a hydrogen station, you could build out full solar field to power it and have plenty of money left over. With expected short term increases in battery energy density, H2 infrastructure is unlikely to be an appealing investment. VW, Toyota and Tesla have all set 2025 as the likely inflection point. H2 for transportation is a technological cul-de-sac.
CCS charges at up to 350kW. Tesla Supercharger charges at 250kW. Tesla’s Megacharger, announced for Semi, is reported to charge at the rate of 400 miles range per hour of charge - for the Semi. Charging port has 8 conductors. So likely to be 1,000 kW or higher, as it’s name would indicate.
$20m would fund 6 hydrogen stations, or 100 DC fast charging stations. Charging at multi-family dwellings is an solvable problem, install chargers (It’s a tenant amenity people will pay for, the state could simply provide low interest financing) For long distance commuters, any EV with 200 mile or better range solves that problem. That’s most of them these days...
Congratulations, Nissan. The Ariya confirms that manufacturers other than Tesla can provide consumers with zero emission transportation that effortlessly replaces the gasoline driving experience at a competitive price. Bravo. If Nissan can do it, Toyota can do it. The Prius lost its luster long ago and hydrogen infrastructure is a mirage that ever recedes into the distance, despite forward progress. It’s fascinating to see how much of their technology lead they will cede to competitors as they try to time the battery market. It’s time Toyota, it’s time. In the meantime, Nissan once again has their day in the sun.
It’s great to see Hawaii and North Carolina join the ZEV states. I wonder what it will take for the other 35 states and the territories to step up and become advocates for clean air. The electoral route that will occur this November will no doubt have some influence.
I don’t believe many traditional truck owners will defect to the Cybertruck, but it will open a new segment, similar to the El Camino and Ranchero in the late 60s and 70s. The Rivian will pick off guys who were spending $80k on a truck that gives them status and cuts a particular profile. GM and Ford will go slow and be timid with innovation because they don’t want to upset the status quo, impair their cash cows. Like most disruption, they’re stuck in a trap, and by the time they realize how badly they are being disrupted, it will be too late, they won’t have time to gat up with their competitors growth curve. Just a few years ago, I talked to big 3 auto execs who were still dismissing - contemptuously - Tesla. Their strategy was to wait for Tesla to fail, they were certain of it. Incredible. Tesla and Rivian have shown that the main barrier to entry - massive capitalization - can be overcome.
This battery, applied to the Tesla Model S in the same weight package, would enable 522 miles of range. That puts to rest the argument that battery electric cars can’t compete with (name your favorite competitor). With a single charge stop midway, that car would get you halfway from Los Angeles to Atlanta.
OP> Starting in 2021, Southern California businesses will have the opportunity to lease Volvo VNR Electric trucks from TEC Equipment to gain firsthand experience with these advanced trucks in their fleet operations. This is fantastic news.
Incredibly impressive, especially the price reduction. Legacy OEMs have a lot of catching up to do. I’m personally a fan of charging at home daily, but for people who don’t have a garage, carport or driveway, 400 mile range enables ~20k annual miles with once a week charging. An hour charging session while you shop and you’re done.
H2 becoming competitively priced vs gasoline is not going to make it a competitive transportation fuel. When a consumer goes to a dealership looking for a new alt-fuel car, the TCO comparison will be to electric. Now that almost all electrics feature 200+ mile range and some offer up to 400 mile range, fuel cell vehicles do not offer any compelling advantages. The infrastructure roll out still lags badly. An H2 station continues to be far more expensive to install than electric. H2 has its advocates on forums but consumers are going to be a bit more pragmatic.
The US won’t need these in 100 days. We will need them in 20 days. Stay home, people. Wash your hands. Wear a mask when you’re at the grocery store. Wear disposable gloves at the gas station. Do it like your life depended on it.
This is fantastic news. Bravo to all the folks in WA that helped make this happen.
One need look no further than the characterization of someone who wants a non polluting car as an “addict” to understand the credibility of that source. Tavares is on the wrong side of history. Actually, it’s more likely he’ll simply be forgotten.
YOY sales is a sawtooth, like almost every other growth curve. Zoom in, and any given time period can look great or ugly. Zoom out, and the long term is revealed. When that trend is a J curve, looking back a year or two tells you very little about what growth the next few years will look like in absolute numbers unless you know in advance it’s a J curve. New electric car introductions, filling segment gaps like CUVs, SUVs and trucks is going to make a big difference in consumer acceptance. Also the network effect. Looking at some of the new models on the horizon, things are just about to get exciting.
Steadily falling battery prices, at both cell and pack level, are a historical fact. The Nissan Leaf went from ~70 mile range in 2010 to 226 mile range in 2019, a 300% increase. Price of the car stayed about the same, mid-thirties. GM just announced that their collaboration with LG Chem will push prices under $100/kWh. More detailed reporting on battery pricing: Both 24M and Oxis have demonstrated batteries with 350 W/kg. Cars with a plug give consumers access to $0.03 mile transportation. That’s a market reality today.