Hock, Regarding that Shilling article: Also, a quarter of homeowners with mortgages are under water, 40% of those who took out mortgages in 2006. Increasing numbers of these people are convinced that they'll never regain positive home equity and are abandoning their abodes in favor of renting other houses at lower monthly costs. Still, the subsequent foreclosures on their mortgages will keep them from qualifying for a government-guaranteed mortgage for three to five years and will stay on their credit records for seven years. I think this is a HUGE "tell" for the true direction the gov't wants to take. YES; ordinarily I would agree a foreclosure SHOULD stop one from buying another house in the near future. BUT, in my humble opinion, in order to get the markets back on track, I would think that the powers that be would WANT to forgive those who simply got caught in the swirl (as opposed to those who should never have bought in the first place). For the benefit of the system, we WANT people to own homes. Now here is the "tell". I think the gov't LIKES owning our homes. There are MANY progressives who believe PRIVATE PROPERTY is the problem. This issue will show us whether the gov't will CAPITALIZE on this crisis. Will they find creative ways to KEEP private property OR to give it BACK.

What is over is capitalism. I believe at this point the gov't WANTS the system to collapse. It WANTS people dependent upon it and will work to ensure they are. They will CAUSE the chaos and then ride in to "save" us, just like Hitler did. THAT is why we WILL see Dow 400.

I appreciate the gesture, but I would say ignore the warnings against paganism at your own peril. I have left the church and now follow a scriptural version of holy days. I keep the Shabbat, and try to understand and follow the Torah because I have come to realize that what I think about such matters is not nearly as important as what our Creator thinks about them. And He is pretty clear about it. I value your opinion (and many others on this blog) regarding the markets because you have studied well, are clear headed and have proven for yourself some ideas while disproving others. You might value my advise for the same reason.

This is a great article. Do you think gold will also resume its uptrend? When or what circumstances will lead to the decoupling of gold / equities / dollar?

I think the accelerating deflation in Japan is a wrinkle not to be ignored.

"And when it bursts gold will go the same way as our equity markets go, so I doubt the hoarding mentality will last very long in gold." Joe, I can't help feeling that ONE of these days, gold will decouple from that sort of "trading vehicle". At that point gold is a currency and is responding to a whole new level of fear (or a better understanding of the true amount and depth of chaos in the world or its systems). Does that make sense?

what is a good site for overseas numbers?

Power Shares just announced that they cannot longer issue new shares of UUP. It jump about 30 cents.

Trader Frank, "There is a very cool site called Geroge Ure Urban Survival "...... I was watching for Oct 25 per Ure and High. Nothing. What are we going to do if nothing catastrophic happens.

Pat "Hey guys, heres my count for p3 for anyone whos interested in a little bit of an alternative view:" Market analysis??!! What the hell is wrong with you? Can't you see this is blog for flaming people!!! Geez. Coherent, documented forecast??? Where's the anger, man?? The vitriol???

FREE, " look at how his bets turned out during the crisis." BETS? Didn't he LOAN the gov't money and a guaranteed rate? A great rate if I remember right.!!

Does it feel like gold is spiking and the dollar is NOT tanking? It seems to me something is amiss there. (not like ALL the markets are a bit amiss.)

What is happening to the Value Line? It seems to be willing to head to the bottom all alone.

"We could have seen the price high, but not the end of the bull pattern from the March lows. As often happens with big moves, the price high or low doesn't necessarily mean the pattern is over, just that it is nearly over." This sounds a bit overly complicated. If the "price high" has posted, how can the "bull pattern" NOT be over. If you are saying the the high is in but that the decline will not start right away, I can agree. But a bull pattern by definition means higher highs and higher lows. I have lost a lot of money watching a "price high" violated but stayed in figuring I could ride out the move up since it could certainly NOT go TOO much higher.

"The now famous Congressman who broke protocol and shouted out that Obama was a liar caught the popular mood:" Tend to think that most of this campaign money being mailed is probably a racist reaction. I sure hope that was a joke or sarcasm because MY donation was strictly on the facts that Obama has wrong yet he keeps saying. "You can keep your coverage" is his statement but in the bill it says you can keep your own insurance UNTIL your employer hires ONE more person. Calling it racist comment is a ploy to change the focus from "Did the Prez lie?" to "Is Joe Wilson a racist?" I am MUCH more interested in the Prez and his agenda than that of Joe Wilson.

The Mayan's calendar is counting down to the beginning of the "seven day", the 1000 yr reign of our Messiah on earth. There is a lot to do before then though. Read Rev 8:13

"Can the feds, who have pumped 2.3 trillion into the stock market " But HAVE they? I don't think the money when into the market. I am not sure WHERE it went, other than the pockets of various politicians, but come on. 2.3T would have done a LOT more than even THIS great rally, don't ya think

I SOLD my BULK GS shares bought in high 60's for 95 pts profit..now i am shorting GS XOM , gold and oil futures as well as SPX HINT..look at SPX chart from 9/24/01 to 7/24/02 .. that is what CAPITULATION looks like.. TERA BAAP But didn't you post that you were NEVER going to sell - something like no price was not too low.

How can "home prices" be a factor in China. Aren't homes only owned by a person for a max of 70 years? Doesn't the property revert back to the government after that? How can prices be a gauge of anything in a "market" like that?

" The STU in contrast expects a Final Surge, a wave C of a normal ABC correction off Mar6. This chart from their latest STU shows their prime count. " Wasn't the term "final surge" being used to describe a much bigger move such as a test or break old highs? It would seem me that a "C" of an mere "ABC" does not qualify for such a lofty moniker.

Can't believe my stop survived to this point. Moved it to lock in about 5%. Dog? Your tail should be wagging.

Alright, "breakeven plus" stop on! The day can proceed anyway it wants now. Hope this is the steep decline you were looking for Dog.

Well I will have to agree with you, Anon. I wonder what effect the Calif IOU debacle will have? I am just happy to get break even stop on and see what happens

I don't know what you were expecting, but good follow thru tomorrow will be good for us both, unless you tapped out.

Hey, Dog Whisperer Lets hope it continues. I got short earlier but not confident - looking to get "break-even plus" stop on tomorrow BUY DXD $46.9095 C2BB820090701 7/1/2009 12:38:54 PM 7/7/2009